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  • #94,801
  • May 11, 2009 12:49pm May 11, 2009 12:49pm
This is due to the rise in risk appetite. Be aware of tomorrow's CPIdate, where I expect maintenance of 0.7%.

On the other hand, there should be some movements, with the Eurozone and German GDP, along with the US CPI…
  • #94,802
  • May 11, 2009 1:05pm May 11, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting Atlast
That's a new one for me. I am going to sell the market at 1.3605 on the assumption that it will not return to its starting block today as day's high may already have been made

Time & price my friend.
  • #94,803
  • May 11, 2009 1:18pm May 11, 2009 1:18pm
Bouncing off 1.3587 the 50% fib level. I think this should stay long. I am aiming for 1.3850 the 61% fib level. The fib levels are from the high at 1.4719 & low of 1.2456
  • #94,804
  • May 11, 2009 1:20pm May 11, 2009 1:20pm
ferndog we are heading to 1.3450 and lower before any move up. Price was rejected twice at weekley 50 ema so we need to retrace down to 61.8 fib level before any move up.
  • #94,805
  • May 11, 2009 1:47pm May 11, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting vinesh2
ferndog we are heading to 1.3450 and lower before any move up. Price was rejected twice at weekley 50 ema so we need to retrace down to 61.8 fib level before any move up.
I think we go up.
  • #94,806
  • May 11, 2009 1:51pm May 11, 2009 1:51pm
If it breaks... yadda yadda yadda Up.

If it don't... yadda yadda yadda Down.

It it keeps trading the samo 600ish pip range, then just samo Yadda.

Either way.... and


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FUBAR...
  • #94,807
  • May 11, 2009 1:58pm May 11, 2009 1:58pm
i think more and more about false breakout to the upside!
  • #94,808
  • May 11, 2009 2:00pm May 11, 2009 2:00pm
Good luck ferndog with your trade. I will see you down in the low 1.34's
  • #94,809
  • May 11, 2009 2:05pm May 11, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting vinesh2
... I will see you down in the low 1.34's


at least... ((I'm saving room for 3280/3320ish at some point here soon enough to be tradedable, but scaling out from from 3647 gives me a little breathing rooom.))
FUBAR...
  • #94,810
  • May 11, 2009 2:20pm May 11, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting vinesh2
ferndog we are heading to 1.3450 and lower before any move up. Price was rejected twice at weekley 50 ema so we need to retrace down to 61.8 fib level before any move up.

how can you see this?

thx
  • #94,811
  • May 11, 2009 2:29pm May 11, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting TexasforEX
It's time to start building long term long eur/usd positions imvho.

Of course this could move down to 1.3450 quite easily and even go as low as 1.32 at an extreme but I can handle that drawdown.. On the flip, it might not get below 1.3550.

The open interest switched from around -3k to about +3k after Friday's move alone (approx numbers). If a trader wants definite confirmation then a move above the swing high at 1.3750 and the YTD high at 1.4025 need to be taken....

When was the last time the s&p was down 17 points and the euro was down 35 points on the daily bar? I hear the T-Bill bubble deflating as I type.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #94,812
  • May 11, 2009 2:52pm May 11, 2009 2:52pm
i got one platform saying trendline was broke 7 trading days ago.. and another saying it was broke friday...day chart...this break from friday doesnt seem to want to run... equitys/oil copper are down. and the gu hasnt hit my benchmark 5281.... stay tune somethings gotta give... may just be consolidation...i had thought we would have seen 3517 today already and then bounced... anyway i trust this chart more.. wish i had used it last week...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,813
  • May 11, 2009 2:53pm May 11, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting TexasforEX
When was the last time the s&p was down 17 points and the euro was down 35 points on the daily bar? I hear the T-Bill bubble deflating as I type.
Actually Treasuries were up today. I think it is the Equities markets that are now deflating. At least today, anyway.
  • #94,814
  • May 11, 2009 3:09pm May 11, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got one platform saying trendline was broke 7 trading days ago.. and another saying it was broke friday..
Gator, just for grins... lose those diagonal TL's for awhile and just plot a couple Hzl S/R lines wherever you think is strongest on that same chart, you can even split the difference if you want depending on how far back you go, then imagine them being 5 to 15 pips wide either side of the line.

Then leave and come back in an hour and look at the same chart again and decide what broke what, if indeed anything even broke at all.

If it's the same as what you see now, no harm no foul, if not, then... that's up to you.

ADD: This is a good example of price trading SIDEWAYS thru a diagonal TL in a basically ranging market but making no new Highs/ Lows within the boundaries of that range (not to speak of anyway). That's why I rarely pay much attention to them anymore in most cases...
FUBAR...
  • #94,815
  • May 11, 2009 3:17pm May 11, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
Actually Treasuries were up today. I think it is the Equities markets that are now deflating. At least today, anyway.

That's true. I was implying the magnitude of the correlation is decreasing. Ya know what I mean...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #94,816
  • May 11, 2009 3:27pm May 11, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting ak4x
Gator, just for grins... lose those diagonal TL's for awhile and just plot a couple Hzl S/R lines wherever you think is strongest on that same chart, you can even split the difference if you want depending on how far back you go, then imagine them being 5 to 15 pips wide either side of the line.

Then leave and come back in an hour and look at the same chart again and decide what broke what, if indeed anything even broke at all.

If it's the same as what you see now, no harm no foul, if not, then... that's up to you.

ADD: This is a good...
if this is the case we are at the high end..maybe the equity bubble will burst..this eu spike never made sence to me..i was just following charts. and shutting the puk up..i gotta start scalping...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,817
  • May 11, 2009 3:27pm May 11, 2009 3:27pm
valery not sure what indicators you use but mine are very bearish. EU rose up to quickly in a very short time so it needs to breath a little and this breathing is called retrace we are still in a uptrend based on weekley however price needs to retrace to gain some buyers. Price is also trading below 50ema on weekley and we also have a potential double top on 4hr so combining all this we are giong to retrace down to the last break out around 1.3408 or even lower
  • #94,818
  • May 11, 2009 3:31pm May 11, 2009 3:31pm
employment going down is employment going down..if it walks like a duck and craps on your leg.. it must be a duck..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,819
  • May 11, 2009 3:36pm May 11, 2009 3:36pm
Here's a quick idea of what I talking about... same chart and fibs as before but w/o those distracting diagonals.

Target zone for the position trade is longer term ((or maybe sooner than we think, who knows?), already scaled out and locked in +5 pips, so if i'm wrong or get stopped out, no big deal.

((Short term stuff is all within a dozen or so pips of TP, and not part of this picture))
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FUBAR...
  • #94,820
  • Edited 4:24pm May 11, 2009 4:08pm | Edited 4:24pm
Pevious post and EU 8hr chart was here by mistake, moved it to it's proper thread here if you're interested.

I don't like to double post stuff.

Add: Here's a 12 hr instead...
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FUBAR...
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