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  • #94,741
  • May 11, 2009 7:56am May 11, 2009 7:56am
Quoting notch
At the most rudimentary level if the main European Bourses are down isn't this a bearish signal for EURUSD


There are better places to look for correlations than EU stock market.

Out of the top of my head... SPX, OIL, GOLD.

Atm european market (and any other market in the world - futures at least) follow obediently US market which has inverse correlation with USD (move direction NOT amplitude). Hence your correct observation that EU Market is correlated with EU - it should be the other way arroud: if you don't wanna bet on EU strength when purchasing stocks, short it agains a more stable economy currency. OR if you buy stocks thinking that EU will value and hence even if your stock is sh*t the price will still go up...you're in big logical error. You'd be better off playing FX directly.

I am right Notch?
  • #94,742
  • May 11, 2009 7:56am May 11, 2009 7:56am
Quoting cgldsmth
it's generally my understanding that good global economic sentiment causes a rise in more risky assets and a move away from defensives. Hence euro and equities gain, swiss franc and dollar lose.

Can you break that down a little more?
  • #94,743
  • May 11, 2009 8:01am May 11, 2009 8:01am
eg just failed to get above a sike leve of .90 (still testing) . i was looking for 3517 on eu... 3500/3550 may be a good buy...imfuo may get the chance today with equitys going down..commodities..i will feel better about longs when gu closes above 5281 .. not for scalpers... use your own charts ect..only a fool would trade off what i posted here without checking it out.. investigate it yourself...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,744
  • May 11, 2009 8:02am May 11, 2009 8:02am
Quoting TheFisherman


There are better places to look for correlations than EU stock market.

Out of the top of my head... SPX, OIL, GOLD.

Atm european market (and any other market in the world - futures at least) follow obediently US market which has inverse correlation with USD (move direction NOT amplitude). Hence your correct observation that EU Market is correlated with EU - it should be the other way arroud: if you don't wanna bet on EU strength when purchasing stocks, short it agains a more stable economy currency. OR if you buy stocks thinking...

We could be splitting hairs here. Since the European stock markets are very closely correlated to the SPX etc, referring to the European bourses is almost the same as referring to the US stock market.

If the SPX is inversely correlated to the USD then this supports my earlier suggestion that European indices down could be a bearish signal for the EURUSD. Again, I'm not entirely sure but it seems logical.
  • #94,745
  • May 11, 2009 8:04am May 11, 2009 8:04am
Quoting cgldsmth
it's generally my understanding that good global economic sentiment causes a rise in more risky assets and a move away from defensives. Hence euro and equities gain, swiss franc and dollar lose.

Please can somebody explain this statement to me?
  • #94,746
  • May 11, 2009 8:07am May 11, 2009 8:07am
Quoting TheFisherman


There are better places to look for correlations than EU stock market.

Out of the top of my head... SPX, OIL, GOLD.

Atm european market (and any other market in the world - futures at least) follow obediently US market which has inverse correlation with USD (move direction NOT amplitude). Hence your correct observation that EU Market is correlated with EU - it should be the other way arroud: if you don't wanna bet on EU strength when purchasing stocks, short it agains a more stable economy currency. OR if you buy stocks thinking...
copper #1/ej/spx ... you dont build with gold...sometimes oil dont corolate
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,747
  • May 11, 2009 8:08am May 11, 2009 8:08am
Quoting fontu
Good improvement of my shorts checking after 4 hrs , round top in all tfs m5 to H4. Hope this sutain move will continue till my 1st TP 1.3530.
fontu
Round Trip back to 137.00 area..from 135.57( Double Bottom) possible inverted head and Shoulder. 1-2-3 setup.. Rounded bottom .... going to 137.23 area IMO. BIG Hammer on Hourly as well.. what more can you ask for....? see a lot of gossip here .. No analysis.???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 229 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #94,748
  • May 11, 2009 8:12am May 11, 2009 8:12am
Adding more longs from 1.3590, go baby go !
  • #94,749
  • May 11, 2009 8:15am May 11, 2009 8:15am
Quoting nedim75
Adding more longs from 1.3590, go baby go !

Gone short at 1.3584. PT: 3558. SL: 3599
  • #94,750
  • Edited 8:16am May 11, 2009 8:15am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting nedim75
Adding more longs from 1.3590, go baby go !

lol....
When you add each long, it goes down 25 pips!!!
ABCD..
  • #94,751
  • May 11, 2009 8:16am May 11, 2009 8:16am
Quoting Raza
Round Trip back to 137.00 area..from 135.57( Double Bottom) possible inverted head and Shoulder. 1-2-3 setup.. going to 137.23 area IMO. BIG Hammer on Hourly as well.. what more can you ask for....? see a lot of gossip here .. No analysis.???
Isn't that a breached H&S shoulder on your chart?
  • #94,752
  • May 11, 2009 8:20am May 11, 2009 8:20am
ej short worth looking at its now under a pp 3245...area..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,753
  • May 11, 2009 8:21am May 11, 2009 8:21am
Quoting notch
Isn't that a breached H&S shoulder on your chart?
breached meaning...Higher... well this is for illustration purpose only... But it can Breach doesnot have to be perfect.. it will get higher than the last high... to get those weak shorts out..This thing has alot of play area (E/U) from.. 1.3437-- 137.37.. it will range all week.

RSI is at the low..Bullish divergence on 15M.,1HR
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #94,754
  • May 11, 2009 8:22am May 11, 2009 8:22am
Quoting Raza
breached meaning...Higher... well this is for illustration purpose only... But it can Breach doesnot have to be perfect.. it will get higher than the last high... to get those weak shorts out..This thing has alot of play area (E/U) from.. 1.3437-- 137.37.. it will range all week.
Thanks, I actually meant breached of the neckline indicative of a downward move. We'll know soon enough.
  • #94,755
  • May 11, 2009 8:28am May 11, 2009 8:28am
nedim75, bad idea to put longs at tha price this thing will retrace 200- 250 pips from the high. Why not wait and buy at lower price dude
  • #94,756
  • May 11, 2009 8:31am May 11, 2009 8:31am
Quoting notch
thanks, i actually meant breached of the neckline indicative of a downward move. We'll know soon enough.
i know what you meant
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #94,757
  • May 11, 2009 8:43am May 11, 2009 8:43am
Quoting vinesh2
nedim75, bad idea to put longs at tha price this thing will retrace 200- 250 pips from the high. Why not wait and buy at lower price dude
then where do you think is the lower price ??????????
  • #94,758
  • May 11, 2009 8:47am May 11, 2009 8:47am
Quoting notch
Thanks, I actually meant breached of the neckline indicative of a downward move. We'll know soon enough.
Another Way of looking at It. IMO Apply proper MM. its worth to go long... for few hundred pips.. or scalp..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 HR EURO.jpg Size: 189 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #94,759
  • May 11, 2009 8:56am May 11, 2009 8:56am
dozzz71 we may go down to 1.34 or lower we simply have gone too high too fast. So it needs to retrace to pick up more buyers. Look for rise during midweek
  • #94,760
  • May 11, 2009 8:59am May 11, 2009 8:59am
it still valid go long for E/U...see the double bottom 1H TF...
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