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  • #94,421
  • May 10, 2009 11:12am May 10, 2009 11:12am
Quoting Rednose
Just a little question: Do someone thinks this makes sense??
This someone thinks not. The run up on the right hand side has exceeded 1.27 by a good way. If it was, and it isn't, the implications would be a move to below the low on the chart with the pattern holding.
The pattern on the chart however is useful, because you will know where a lot of pattern traders went long (you work it out and there is where you may expect any retracement to stall, temporarily or not). Hope this helps
  • #94,422
  • May 10, 2009 11:16am May 10, 2009 11:16am
some speculations
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  • #94,423
  • May 10, 2009 11:27am May 10, 2009 11:27am
Here are the 2-3 trade opportunities I will be looking at this week...

1) Euro-Dollar:

See Chart # 1. There are 2 scenarios to it, one of them being that there will be E-U starts down from here (3600 is levels), I will add a short at 3400, for targets at 3100 area.

Scenario two is where I am hoping it will work out for me. 1.4000 is my region for shorts.

2) Euro-Yen trades:

Chart 2: Again areas of interest here are 3600, and 4100. I may short it if it resumes downwards sooner than that.

What do others think here about these 2 pairs?
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Its all in the mind.
  • #94,424
  • May 10, 2009 11:28am May 10, 2009 11:28am
5abi, my friend - How are you doing?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #94,425
  • May 10, 2009 11:33am May 10, 2009 11:33am
Everyone needs to relax about this "gap". The bid is 1.3638 and the ask is 1.3402. This happens all the time during the weekend because of the low liquidity. No one would ever deal at rates like that over the weekend. The spread will shrink dramatically once retail markets open back up.

Just wanted to clear that up for you all...
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #94,426
  • May 10, 2009 11:34am May 10, 2009 11:34am
Hey Chicky, been hanging around, how was your weekend? Loads of gap discussions and now we are back to the favorite part, pree-dicktion what say you where we go from here?

Quoting Chicky
5abi, my friend - How are you doing?
Its all in the mind.
  • #94,427
  • May 10, 2009 11:42am May 10, 2009 11:42am
Quoting kodie2006
Everyone needs to relax about this "gap". The bid is 1.3638 and the ask is 1.3402. This happens all the time during the weekend because of the low liquidity. No one would ever deal at rates like that over the weekend. The spread will shrink dramatically once retail markets open back up.

Just wanted to clear that up for you all...
ya... and the mean works out to 520. We might visit at least the upper 500s before going up...
  • #94,428
  • Edited 12:57pm May 10, 2009 11:52am | Edited 12:57pm
The USD increasing in value Friday created a similar chart across all major currency pairs which envolve the USD. The least affected was the GBP/USD but not by much. At this writing the US indice futures are up. YM @ +1.54%, ES @ +1.96% and the TF @ +2.81%. The NQ is still down from Friday by -.36%. If the US futures remain strong I am expecting a retracement of all USD major pairs. We'll see at the fx open today, through the night and the US market open tomorrow morning. I will, however, be prepared to play it which ever way it goes. Using the 5 min chart I will go long if I get another higher high and a higher low. I will short at the top of a third oscillation going lower.
  • #94,429
  • Edited 12:14pm May 10, 2009 11:54am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting 5abi
Hey Chicky, been hanging around, how was your weekend? Loads of gap discussions and now we are back to the favorite part, pree-dicktion what say you where we go from here?
5abi, I was worried about your drawdown of last week. But glad to see you are still in the game and working on charts. I had a profitable week, of course with the help good advices from our FF friends. Had to sit very very tight to see my losses converting to profit.

I am not sure where we will go from here, and I don't care either. After all these years, I have learned not to predict for short term i.e. less than months. I see no solid econominc recovery in near future. Financial crisis take more time than any other type of recession to recover. This one is a bit complicated. Therefore there will be ups and down for a while. My job now is to take advantage of these ups and downs with proper rr and money managment.

I am shorting Euro and Aud against USD, and CAD against JPY with a short to medium term perspective i.e. One day to six months. For example my stoploss for Euro is 1.4800 and will keep on shorting this and taking profits until it hits 1.4800, if it ever gets there.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #94,430
  • May 10, 2009 12:17pm May 10, 2009 12:17pm
yeah DD is mitigated a little now, had a good Friday trade, pretty much made up for the losses.

So you are saying that you have a stop at 4800? A liitle too large for a stop considering you short relatively shorter TF? Btw be careful aboot the aussie shorts here, 8000 is where it will be by the weekend.

Quoting Chicky
5abi, I was worried about your drawdown of last week. But glad to see you are still in the game and working on charts. I had a profitable week, of course with the help good advices from our FF friends. Had to sit very very tight to see my losses converting to profit.

I am not sure where we will go from here, and I don't care either. After all these years, I have learned not to predict for short term i.e. less than months. I see no solid econominc recovery in near future. Financial crisis take more time than any other type of recession to recover....
Its all in the mind.
  • #94,431
  • Edited 12:27pm May 10, 2009 12:26pm | Edited 12:27pm
Quoting 5abi
yeah DD is mitigated a little now, had a good Friday trade, pretty much made up for the losses.

So you are saying that you have a stop at 4800? A liitle too large for a stop considering you short relatively shorter TF? Btw be careful aboot the aussie shorts here, 8000 is where it will be by the weekend.
My sl for aussie is .86xx. Yes, for Euro is 1.48xx (with a provision to move it to 1.5xx). These will get narrower by itself without moving sls if market moves against me. Any shorts added on its way to these sls will yield better rr. I hope you got the point.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #94,432
  • May 10, 2009 12:27pm May 10, 2009 12:27pm
hi guys, does anyone here know anything about "commitment of traders" report and how this can be useful for better trading?
  • #94,433
  • May 10, 2009 12:53pm May 10, 2009 12:53pm
there are many ways to interpret that and there are 3 components to that- i dont give it much weight but if you want to then go where the institutional money is.

Quoting pip-anator
hi guys, does anyone here know anything about "commitment of traders" report and how this can be useful for better trading?
Its all in the mind.
  • #94,434
  • May 10, 2009 12:59pm May 10, 2009 12:59pm
It's a good confirmation of price action on the weekly chart.

NNT

Quoting pip-anator
hi guys, does anyone here know anything about "commitment of traders" report and how this can be useful for better trading?
  • #94,435
  • May 10, 2009 12:59pm May 10, 2009 12:59pm
Ok. yes i get what you may be thinking, but what if it never gets down again? improbable but not impossible...

I still remember traders adding longs to the point when it fell to 4000 levels last year hoping that is the bottom, and then it goes down to take 2000's . That is why I keep my s/l based on ATR. If that is taken well this was never supposed to be a god trade, no? And I usually make it up when the short term trend reverses. Much better than having a 1000 pip stops (for me. not to say it cannot work for others)

Now to your second trade-- be careful here, aussie is most probably going up now. there is no reason at this moment for a retrace anywhere under 7500. Mixed feelings for euro.

Quoting Chicky
My sl for aussie is .86xx. Yes, for Euro is 1.48xx (with a provision to move it to 1.5xx). These will get narrower by itself without moving sls if market moves against me. Any shorts added on its way to these sls will yield better rr. I hope you got the point.
Its all in the mind.
  • #94,436
  • May 10, 2009 12:59pm May 10, 2009 12:59pm
I see ticks at 1.3402 - we'll go down for better price loading longs?
  • #94,437
  • May 10, 2009 1:12pm May 10, 2009 1:12pm
It hit 400,500 and then 600... and... hey wait... let`s hunt stops at 500s to support us... lol

I`m sure we`re going to have a higher high for the week at least at 750, before we turn down or consolidate... The euro always likes round numbers
  • #94,438
  • May 10, 2009 1:33pm May 10, 2009 1:33pm
Here are my trades i will open after the markets opens in 2:40 hours:

1] GBP/JPY :

Buy @ market
TP @ 151.00
SL @ 147.50

2] EUR/JPY :

buy @ market
TP @ 134.80
SL @ 131.00

3] EUR/USD : (look first at the market)

RULES : i am not responsible for these signals (read risk disclosure) thats my analysis and way of thinking and i like sharing it to know other opinions
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won’t or can’t do!
  • #94,439
  • May 10, 2009 1:39pm May 10, 2009 1:39pm
As you can see we had a clear breakout of the downward trendline making up the top of the descending triangle. A few times, price action has managed to stick its tail beyond the line; however, this is the first time it was able to actually close beyond it. The close is a significant amount to warrant a breakout. If we use the descending triangle breakout as a projection, this would put the pair right back in the 1.47-50 range.

Taking a closer look at the daily chart, you can see that we broke out of the downward descending channel sometime ago that made up a flag. When projecting using the flag, you take the flag pole and project it from the breakout point which would put us at about 1.42. We get this number since the movement from 1.25-1.3725 makes up 1,225 pips. We add that to the bottom of the pennant which was at about 1.29 which gives us the 1.42 region.

Also looking at the Daily chart we are closing in on resistance levels on the daily chart here at 1.3725 for an intraday resistance and you can see with the resistance line drawn that the pair could not close above 1.3660 for 6 straight days on the daily chart making it an important level to close above for further bullish movement.

Support can be found on the daily chart at the 1.3450-1.35 region. As you can see looking back at the bullish movement in march, price action was able to bounce off of that region a few times and make assaults on 1.3725, price action was rejected off of that level April 5th, and 6th, and we have just recently broke above that level that was serving as resistance which should now serve as support. Therefore, a move back down to 1.3450-1.35 would be an excellent place to buy to initially target 1.3725 and then 1.40.

Looking at the COT report. Institutional traders switched back to net long the euro/usd last week.

Fundamentally speaking we still have not seen any evidence in the economic numbers for optimism in the markets. However, Fed chairman bernanke, the IMF, and other central bankers are forecasting growth and an eventual economy recover some time this year. Therefore, traders are looking for a slowing in the deterioration of the economy. This seems to be the impetus behind this rally in equities as no one wants to miss the boat on finding a bottom. Economic numbers, continue to come out poorly, but risk appetite seems to still be returning to the market. Be careful to watch for a return of risk aversion during this global recession, but until then technically the eur/usd looks like a good buy, at least till 1.42
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  • #94,440
  • May 10, 2009 1:42pm May 10, 2009 1:42pm
you may be very right here.

Quoting Maxsmart
As you can see we had a clear breakout of the downward trendline making up the top of the descending triangle. A few times, price action has managed to stick its tail beyond the line; however, this is the first time it was able to actually close beyond it. The close is a significant amount to warrant a breakout. If we use the descending triangle breakout as a projection, this would put the pair right back in the 1.47-50 range.

Taking a closer look at the daily chart, you can see that we broke out of the downward descending channel sometime ago...
Its all in the mind.
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