Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS) Method

My systems got clearly defined exits aswell, normally small ones, with counter trend you'll end up holding for ever, waiting for that turn which you think is always about to happen and it never does

Counter trade = DEAD account, SERIOUSLY!!!!

OK,

These seems not just choppy but gale force!!!

I've tried to manually pick out all the entries or exits manually from the above entry exit conditions. (So bear with me if I missed any!)

To be honest I cannot see that many losses (if someone want to manually check the times displayed are BST +1 hr (for some reason I have yet to determine). In fact I would argue assuming you were disciplined and exited as soon as you could after the candle closed down, then I suspect all in all you would have made it through the chop in profit, however I'm biased and would say that!

Certainly assuming a 15 pip SL and a 3 pip spread (typical for "normal" hours FXCM) you would have picked up the first entry as a buy, and would have stayed in all the way through the chop!

Yep it would have been a long trade for this system, but it would have ultimately succeeded and there were a number of profitable places you could have got out of the trade early when you realised it was choppy!!

3/20 signal on it's own will suffer from wayyyyy to much chop, I've already tested that tonight and done the maths, everyones been trying to do that for AGES.

You NEED the direction strength of the 60sma on your side and the area inbetween to filter out chop.

Yes it looks really nice on that chart, but test a few days worth of charts you'll see what I mean!!

Yes I'll give you it's better for directionless chop, mines better for trend but trend is where the money is at and trading live it's near impossible to tell if the next 10mins will be trend or chop sadly.

And it's how visible it looks live to, I find my 20/55.65 cross easier to see personally.

Yes I'm trying to knock the counter trends outta you, which this method will force you down, I trade with the trend I have 23wins in a row, I trade against the trend I have 8 losses and wipe my account, thats how bad counter trend is.

Less risk is KEY to sustaining this baby and making it to that golden 10Mil ( lets face it 1Mil is worthless these days LOL )

TBH

I was going to go with your method monday AM anyway!!

I cannot fault your logic as it looks what I would call a safer pair of hands (I fully appreciate mine is more simplistic - but hey look what thread I'm putting this on!!!)

would be cool if you can (and once again apologies if this has ALREADY been done many times before)

The last template I posted I think covers all the required info, however, would be fantastic if you could double check and perhaps upload the FINAL FINAL template for this method, then I can install it on MT4, then migrate across to FXCM (so envelope is useless to me !!)

I really apreciate the affort ( and at times patience!!) you are showing matey Once again BZ

P.S. As you are relatively close by - when I've made my first £10K with this system I'll buy you a round if you like (Would do it at £1K - but hey not made of money LOL!!!)

Anyway = way past my bedtime so TOODLES!!

Already compared your chart to mine, it's spot on, we are all trading on the same page!!

Just trade off the MT4 chart.


remember your only 40miles away, mines a coke though!!

EJ last week trending times for GMT!!



Actually forget that, very little chop all day, huge swings and huge profits made from the look of it, very few losers ( only a quick scan through )


Ofcourse last Monday is irrelevant to this Monday so no guarantees, but certaintly doesn't rule Mondays out for trend

Spent most of my Saturday night( what fun ), testing other SMA Values and :-


For the 20sma, I've tried 15sma too fast, 25sma too slow, getting the best profits over all from a 20sma setting, 22 might be SLIGHTLY better sometimes, but splitting hairs so unless we get chopped too much 20sma stays.

Same for the 55/65's perfect balance and not to big a dead zone SL wise maybe most of the time, although 40,50 looks promising too, just slightly quicker 15mins.

Also I used to use 120sma and 240sma, and yes they work on a fair few locations enough not to be coincidence, but there not consistent enough break / not breaking wise to add the complexity, which was what was killing me ( and being stupid ), before dumping them.


Interesting!! So close yet so far away for YEARS!!

Ran the numbers vaguely in my head for just 3ema / 20sma crosses.

It's not bad in ways, it turns some losers into winners, but makes its own losers and fairly frequently I think more so, but at the same time, better prices on entry and more trades so more losers are expected anyway.

But it's 2am and surely it can't be that easy just to trade 3ema / 20ema cross overs till the cows come home, can it ???


ARRRGGHHHHH I DUNNO will sleep on it, but that really is a KISS system hey


Okay 2 demo accounts Monday ran side by side, 1 20 and 55/65 rules and 1 just 20 rule!! Lets have a trade off!!

Hi TD

You can try use the attached indicator to get the 2 SMA's fill. I did use it on my chart. Good to spot on No Man Land area.

~profi~

psgm

When you say the trades should be obvious, do you mean when there is a big reversal candle after a discrenable direction in the direction of 1 minute chart it is a signal?

Or when there are several consecutive bullish or bearish candles and then there is a reversal candle is it a signal?

Apologies just got your email, and now I shall try and answer your question.

The answer - is Yes - to both!!!

Please let me explain. There are times when yes just one large candle will be indicitave of a trade, and also 2-3 consecutive candles are a trade.

What I was trying to get across is this.

When you look at a chart, without any other information your eye is able to see when the price has changed direction correct? (you can tell it has HAPPENED at the very least!!)

OK now what i was trying to convey, is that there are certain patterns that occur when this happens.

Without going into specifics of candlestick formations, if you study any chart, and enough of them (weekends are good as they don't update - so good for study!)

Then you can picture in your head certain repeating patterns.

Ok, since this thread has began, with lots of great advice, that has been refined slightly, by noticing that by use of the bollinger band, and 2-3 moving averages it is possible to refine better when a turn may be occuring.

If you look at my simplified entry exit strategy, you can hopefully see what I mean. (I have included screenshots to help!)

I have stated using the 3/20 cross as entry point, however also 3/8 cross also seems to work reasonably well.

As I have stated on this thread, my friend who had never traded before friday, followed this strategy on a demo account Friday, and on his very first day made over 100 pips with no losses.

Of course 1 day may have been a fluke, but if nothing else it gets my attention!

This is the chart I was referring to

TD

If you think just using 3/20 and Bollinger bounce would be frustratingly simple as entry points - well 3/20 was used as further confirmation!!!

3/8 is the initial cross, and 3/20 was used as to confirm the trade!!

Is there anyone out there prepared/ stupid enough to have a look at his over a chart?

Bear in mind SL would be 15 pips (Inclusive of a 3pip spread for me)

Again this "mechanical" version of trying to determine "OBVIOUS" signals has not been put to serioius live testing as far as I know, however backtesting shows extreme promise!!

to clarify,

ENTRY ....

1) Bollinger "bounce" occured
2) 3/8 cross

EXIT Can be any of these (depending on your risk appetite / confidence of move

1) Bollinger band Bounce (opposite side to entry)
2) 3/8 cross
3) SL 15 hit

Once again please refer to my charts to probably explain itr better than I just did!!

For me, when I have been manually trading this, once a trade has gone over 10 pips (ideally 15 pips), I set the SL, so it will be 10 pips profit regardless, place a trailing stop of 10 pips (min for FXCM) then I can move on to another trade / currency.

Yes this does not follow the mechanics of this sytem, and I may stop it when I have extensively tested this system. However up until now I was looking for 10-15 pips per trade, and old habits die hard!!!

Hopefully now I have seen the error of my ways!!!

Use the BB to exit not to buy is the advice, I might put the BB back on then,

The 38 was to fast, way to many reversals.

I'm going to slow the 20sma off to 22sma it just back fits every so slightly better ( keep up )

I'll setup 2 MT4 chart platforms, open 2 demo fxcm accounts, 1 per screen and take every signal live, try to get a couple of hours to just do this ( BORED already ), then I can compare the trade data, see if either really even work and which 1 works best. EJ only trading 2 systems at once will be confusing enough.

I think the 55/65 ( might use the 40/50 for the 3/20 cross ) will still be usefull info, if long and price stalling under exit on a 3/8 cross back down, IF crossed over then might consider holding till it breaks back under to ride out the longer bigger pip trades.


INTERESTING for sure, good bit of team work going on here, I wouldn't of even checked it.


Thanks for the EA's gives me something to get started and Modify to suite maybe

Just noticed (why didn't I think of this before!!!)

The bollinger band on MT4, also automatically incorporates the 20sma!!!

22 could indeed work better, but if the bollinger band is included ANYWAY, one less indicator for the template!!!

The Bollinger band is included, as I said, if a "bounce" has already occured, then there is already some momentum for the move!

PSGM

Do your MA crossovers in this trading system work only as confirmation and filter not the signals themselves? As MA crossovers based systems have bad reputation hehind them. Thank you for your posts.

I would say that yes the MA is confirmation, but I would suggest that the whole of the information is used to determine the trade.

Using the "bounce" of the bollinger band in itself isn't good enough, similarly the 3/8 cross isn't good enough

But together could have a lot of potential. I wouldn't like to say what the success rate is (As I haven't tested for a long enough time).

As with any system, the key is to get one that works for you. This particular method has effectively evolved through this thread, so hopefully you can see the logic behind the use of every detail and why it has been included or removed.

I keep saying this, that the system may not be the most profitable available (only time will tell), however I am striving to stick to the KISS philosophy at all times. It is so so simple to add additional indicators to add further information - but in my opinion they are all lagging and so have disadvantages.

For me this is a method that uses the minimum additions, and signals can be followed with the minimum of confusion.

I hope people are finding this useful and help improve their trading.

OK this is where the thread has evolved to so far !!!