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Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS) Method

  • #161
  • May 8, 2009 2:39pm May 8, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting MIA_Austrian
Turveyd your template is simply amazing. Good for 200 pips on G/U today - it caught all the big swings.

I am having good success combining this setup with S/R and it pays to keep an eye on higher time frames. It really doesn't take long to start recognizing patterns and it seems to work well on multiple pairs on other TFs.

This graph is just gorgeous:

Yep it's EASY which is key, and it gets enough of the big moves, like that to make the chop not such a issue, does help that the markets compared to this time last year are alot more trendy and less choppy to

Just got to use your brain and try to avoid chop.

I'm pretty much convinced at this point I'll be making A LOT of ££'s of trading just this over the coming months / years.

You realise there are multiple entrys on the GU on the way up to get in safely ish if you miss the start right ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #162
  • May 8, 2009 2:44pm May 8, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting Pips Queak
Yep, not knocking it at all. Just interested that it seems to be working so well. I'll always look out for pinbars, candles eating candles etc to help a trade decision but I reckon the key here is hanging on to the big winners and accepting a 60% hit rate. With my previous crossover system, it was 50-60 with a 1-1 RR. Hence I gave up.

I don't really count MA's as indicators. To me, indicators are those lagging things that sit at the bottom of your screen. Although I do use a doublewoodie with some success.

Keep the charts coming, I'll be demoing...
1-1RR is never going to work realistically.

Thursday trading EJ over the 24hours 61% win rate, with no attempt to avoid chop +394 pips.

No reason you couldn't trade that result live, it was realistic in all ways, given enough coffee ofcourse to sit and trade for 24hours straight.

A EA won't work, still need a human brain to avoid chop, pick sensible exits before the cross down and hold sometimes despite a 20sma cross down.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #163
  • May 8, 2009 3:06pm May 8, 2009 3:06pm
Thursday EJ more data :-


Profit +546
Losses -152

So thats a 3.59:1 RR or 1:3.59 which ever.

We'll add a extra 50% to the Losers to be safe so -228, still +318 on the day.

RR drops to 2.4:1 area.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #164
  • May 8, 2009 6:40pm May 8, 2009 6:40pm
so what is tf on this? I am assuming M1 mostly?
Its all in the mind.
  • #165
  • May 8, 2009 6:48pm May 8, 2009 6:48pm
I'm trading M1 only, looks okay on M5 seems to even work on D1 and W1.

But the moves I'm after are better seen to me on M1!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #166
  • Edited May 9, 2009 12:11am May 8, 2009 11:09pm | Edited May 9, 2009 12:11am
TD

I am convinced following the crosses works!

Got yet another message from my mate yesterday I shall quote what he said..

up £1615
no lost once yet!!!!!

Not bad for a first day ever of demo trading.

OK he was using 2 Lot on a 3000 account, but still that works out to well over 100 pips on his first day!!!!!

With regards to the Camels Head pattern, I just put that up as a little exercise as I have seen it so many times and it seems to have a relative good track record. I'm going to start a thread on that pattern, so if anyone has any views on that, then please feel free to comment.

Have a great weekend everyone!!

11765 06_05_09 0611
  • #167
  • May 9, 2009 4:55am May 9, 2009 4:55am
As long as the market is trending, I'm convinced to, I've back checked it for a month on EJ GU EU its as near perfect as your going to get.

Before the system woulda got me short ( on a down move ) below the 60sma, although it woulda worked multiple times on the EU today generally it hits the 20 for +10pips then reverses again and takes out the 60min creating a loss. Thats why I pulled all trades in that area, no enough consistency.

My ownly thought to improve so far is, if the 55/65 sma's are heading up strongly, consider a break under high risk, wait for the 55/65 to flatten out a bit before jumping on blindly.

The only issue is, removing chop to a high enough degree without missing out on good action in the process, I think we are going to have to accept some chop losses in short which is acceptable.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #168
  • May 9, 2009 9:38am May 9, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Turveyd
I'm trading M1 only, looks okay on M5 seems to even work on D1 and W1.

But the moves I'm after are better seen to me on M1!!
hellooo turveyd,

didn't know u were also a 1m guy i'm having a little headache on when 2 get out on the 1m. any ideas??
  • #169
  • May 9, 2009 11:14am May 9, 2009 11:14am
Quoting winningfx
hellooo turveyd,

didn't know u were also a 1m guy i'm having a little headache on when 2 get out on the 1m. any ideas??
Read my system above.

depends on the setup, ( presume your long for all ), when the 3ema crosses under the 8sma is first, then under the 20sma is the next sell point if you want to risk it that far, then again for the 55-65sma range, above that is working well as your against the trend and very low odds it'll come back your way.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #170
  • May 9, 2009 12:07pm May 9, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
Read my system above.

depends on the setup, ( presume your long for all ), when the 3ema crosses under the 8sma is first, then under the 20sma is the next sell point if you want to risk it that far, then again for the 55-65sma range, above that is working well as your against the trend and very low odds it'll come back your way.
Hi TD,

Just a quick question - I have just looked back on the charts with the template you posted - when did the 6sma change to the 8sma?

That was why I have been stating 3/6 cross?

Could you upload your most recent template (with any simplifications you have made)

That is probably why my charts are differing to yours!!!

Just to recap (for me if no one else.....)

I have attached a screenshot of what I understand would be the calls to be made (the green line is the 20 sma

Please let me know if I understand you correctly or have totally lost the plot!!

cheers guy

BZ for all your help so far BTW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade_example_25.jpg Size: 210 KB
  • #171
  • May 9, 2009 3:28pm May 9, 2009 3:28pm
Nope, your entering on the first 20sma cross, the 60min market direction is still down, so although it worked in all those cases better, still technically a counter trend trade so higher risk.

I think, I'll crunch some 20sma cross numbers shortly, but don't think it would work as well, much higher loss rate.


Chart same time as yours details the S / B / X points!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NO Mans Land explained.jpg Size: 293 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #172
  • May 9, 2009 3:30pm May 9, 2009 3:30pm
You need the 2 lines 55 and 65 sma, look up to the left of the boobies I drew on market stayed within so hold the trade gives abit of a chop buffer zone.

Minimizing trades from chop is KEY!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #173
  • May 9, 2009 3:40pm May 9, 2009 3:40pm
Here you go, F marks the place you'd of gotten in on just a 20sma cross which failed, 5 fails there, sticking to the system would get you 0 fails.

20sma cross, might be better for trading Chop but no, markets rarely chopping these days. Prefer less profit and safer trades.

But 20sma cross is still better than just guessing

In super chop you can just trade the 8sma chop but there all going to be counter trend.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #174
  • May 9, 2009 3:43pm May 9, 2009 3:43pm
Attachment failed above I see!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: A STACK OF 20SMA CROSS FAILS.jpg Size: 253 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #175
  • May 9, 2009 4:57pm May 9, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting psgm
Hi TD,

Just a quick question - I have just looked back on the charts with the template you posted - when did the 6sma change to the 8sma?

That was why I have been stating 3/6 cross?

Could you upload your most recent template (with any simplifications you have made)

That is probably why my charts are differing to yours!!!

Just to recap (for me if no one else.....)

I have attached a screenshot of what I understand would be the calls to be made (the green line is the 20 sma

Please let me know if I understand you correctly or have totally lost...

There is need for a good ea for this system to avoid staying glue to the PC 24 hrs.That will be too stressful.We need a good programmer to do this for us.My little opinion.Hope my expression is not completely stupid.Well if I sound stupid I am not bothered at all.After all the thread is for the stupid that hate loosing there money to the S.M
  • #176
  • May 9, 2009 5:16pm May 9, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting aje6767
There is need for a good ea for this system to avoid staying glue to the PC 24 hrs.That will be too stressful.We need a good programmer to do this for us.My little opinion.Hope my expression is not completely stupid.Well if I sound stupid I am not bothered at all.After all the thread is for the stupid that hate loosing there money to the S.M
Your in luck, I'm a top of the line programmer although not EA's, not written 1 in 4years for the old Ver 3 Meta.

Thinking about EA, exit rules are a pain as there is some discression in that, and need it to only trade certain high probability time zones to avoid chop and no new trade 1hour before big news ( you'll have to tell it the time ) as it's generally chop due to fear.

I'll try to get a EA done Monday / Tuesday when the markets moving, that will let you know audibly any time the market crosses to a Long or Short entry position, to save my eyes.

Then I'll build on it from there, exit logic, then back test data to determine best times then easy life
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #177
  • May 9, 2009 5:47pm May 9, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
Nope, your entering on the first 20sma cross, the 60min market direction is still down, so although it worked in all those cases better, still technically a counter trend trade so higher risk.

I think, I'll crunch some 20sma cross numbers shortly, but don't think it would work as well, much higher loss rate.


Chart same time as yours details the S / B / X points!!

This is starting to look more and more like the Ichimoku Cloud indicator!!!!!!!
  • #178
  • May 9, 2009 5:59pm May 9, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting psgm
This is starting to look more and more like the Ichimoku Cloud indicator!!!!!!!

Just checked that, nahhhh it's crap.

Would like something i could put 2 SMA's into and it would fill in the dead zone, I can program auto traders but never got my head around indicators so I'm not even going to try!!

Anyone ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #179
  • May 9, 2009 6:18pm May 9, 2009 6:18pm
I've added a screenshot that has some of my ideas of conditions I'm looking for.

1) Bounce off the Bollinger Band
2) 3/20 cross

then the exit conditions can be either:

1) 3/8 cross OR
2) Bollinger Band bounce

Not sure if that would increase the effectiveness of the method (or indeed the simplicity of coding it as an EA). However, In terms of simplicity it will have very clear rules

I've left in the 55,65 ema on the graphs, but in terms of entry / exit points it is pretty redundant in this configuration. I'm not sure how easy / difficult it is to determine a bounce off the bollinger (I suspect lower close on upper bolinger, higher close on lower bollinger) and obviously I don't expect ANY system to be 100%, but will be interesting to see exactly how much of the moves it WOULD catch!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade_example_26.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #180
  • May 9, 2009 6:34pm May 9, 2009 6:34pm
That don't work, don't trade the BB range it's ever changing, it makes you try to pick tops and bottoms all counter trend, which is a fools game, after the fact it looks easy peasy thats why everyone thinks it's good and everyone tries to catch tops and bottoms, in reality 80% of them are going to turn against you and the ones that don't aren't worth many pips ( yes I tried to trade this way for AGES and blew the account loads of times )

Stick to my plan dude, put your greed in check it's safer and making alot of nice easy peasy pips, just scale the lot size up quickly as your account grows for big profits
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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