Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS) Method

Errr okay TO MANY Posts :-

Pretend the Envelope isn't there, its just so I can judge the scale of my chart as a reference dont' trade off it.

Yep 55/65 would work, I like the 3 but irrelevant, it just provides a not to fussy range.

93pips, where's my commision then NICE.

Although only designed as a M1 I guess it'll work on all TF's.

I have a 5min just to see the days movement easily in 1 hit.

A EA could work ( I'm a programmer ) just got to teach it what times to trade, as it would back test fine I could use the back test data to refine the times, in a attempt to ignore the chop times like I try to do anyway, and just switch it on and off at certain volatile times, or tell it don't trade between X and X Friday, easy!!

It does look really promising and super super easy which I like, the GU for instance netted a @50pip down move, then when it broke back above the 55/65 range a further 25pips, sadly EJ's chopping around aimlessly.

Templates!! EU and EJ!!

Feel free to delete the Envelope if it's adding confusion to the issue.

Remember I trade off the EMA3 crossing lines not the BID price, it just filters out noise which its too easy to react to badly, doesn't lag to far behind, if you find it too slow try EMA2 instead.

And here is good old GU.


If you can only trade 1, trade EJ, possibly only trade EJ to be honest.



enjoy!!

Really does not fail does it, although on the EJ just it went short, retraced abit stopped just under the 55-65 right as they crossed over so the SMA's turned down then dropped nicely, impressive.

I put my confusing 120sma and 240sma back in and I can see and get out on alot of the chop, retrospectively it does add exits really, but leaving them out, KISS baby!!

Remember a move under the 20sma then back over is still a potential buy signal, did on the EJ 22:58 ( my chart ) 132.64 area then ran for 30pips, nice!!!


Confidence is so high it's unreal

EJ, back tested trade for Thursday going to take all moves so including Chop and the pain / losses from it.

Okay :- ( these are realistic profits and losses, no perfect entry / exit BS )


+9
+18
+30
+12
+30
+20 ( +40 with balls to hold for max )
-10
-10 Chop alert!!
+15
-5
+15
+7
+10
-10
-10 ( more chop )
+120 ( WOWSA who cares about the 4 losers for -40 )
-10
-10
-10 ( yep chopped around )
+30 ( got them back )
NEWS TIME will never trade
+40
+30
+35
+10
-25 ( worst loser yet, would hit my SL so -20 )
+20
BE
-12
+5
+35
-15
+5
-10
-15
+50

Thats +394 pips LOL

21 Profits, 13 Losers = 34 trades in total, win 61% average pips per trade 11.5!!

That'll do me, that was 24hours though with no attempt to not trade chop on a good EJ day I'll add with huge moves!!

Add in some brain power and likely get to 70-80% profit ratio.

Then add in the pips from EU and GU.

Say 6hour trading day, 2 x 3hour blocks picking the best times and should be able to take +200pips per day between the 3 pairs I'd guess.

Those losses where worst case and the profits 80% efficent which is realistic!!

It works on M5 if you REALLY have to, M15 there just isn't enough info.

Interestingly though D1 holds up well for your long term holders, got all the move down from 162 to 115 area , abit slow for my likings though!!

W1 and MN work well to, for all you once a month internet access people with huge SL's

That is fantastic TD. A simple yet effective solution. Now the icing on the cake - do you have either a screenshot, or the timings of the trades??? Once again a big ask, but then everyone will be able to see PRECISELY how when and where to trade this. Also we can all look for the choppy time, learn to recognise it, and ultimately how to avoid it!!

I'd like to say cannot ask for more - but just have!!!

(just being greedy I suppose!)

Out of curiosity - you mention 2x 3hr blocks, what times would you suggest? (UK timings) please.

As we used to say in Navy BZ shippers!! (BZ = Well done!! - Don't ask me why!!)

Finally (suspect will get bored of this but not yet!!! 8686 (2420 hits yesterday) 0646 08 05 09

Thanks to PSGM and TURVEYD for all their efforts here ! I will give it a try next week for sure ! Thanks
Luk

Thanks Pip Rider for the kind words - perhaps me and TD could arrange a live seminar someday (obviously for a large price ;-) )

Anyway as promised earlier, I have just received an email from my from who up until wednesday 6 May had never even SEEN a forex chart!!

For those who are unaware, earlier this week, I convinced an old navy buddy of mine to demo trade the forex for a week, using the latest methodology that has evolved on this thread (I was going to say I posted - however that would be taking far too much credit - which should rightfully go to Turveyd - I merely got the ball rolling!!!)

Anyway Last night I received this message (about 11pm) Remember - he had not even SEEN a chart 2 days ago. the only "education" he had was a 1 hour chat with me - including how to load and install Alpari MT4 demo!!!

I do not know his lot sizes, but will assume they are default Alpari MT4 settings (1 lot) as that was what I set him u pwith

"well.. I am £775 up at the moment from about two hours of actively looking at it all!"

To me that is all the validation I need!!!

Hi Folks,

I've noticed this Bollinger band pattern so many times, that I thought U would share it with you all. I call it the Camel's Head, simply because it reminds me of a camel wearing a bridle!!!

It is a continuation pattern. basically the "ears" are the start of the pattern, the price then falls (the bridle). when the price returns to the start of the bridle that is the buy signal!

I am sure it would be simply the opposite for a sell signal, but this is a pattern I look for and is quite successful (but I do not have specific stats to back this up!!!)

See if you see what I see ( or am I just visiting from the planet crazy!!!)

to F*&k up takes a trader.

Did I make a mistake, or is it fair comment - you be the judge...

at Entry point #1 I saw what I considered a sell signal. So I entered with my 15 pips SL. It failed.

However at Entry point #2 I saw another sell, so I entered and am in profit.

So does this count as a failure on my part?????

For my defence I would say no - simply because once you start changing your rules to fit a particular instance, where does it lead??

If you have a rule stick to it - there is no such thing as a prefect system !!
8-)

Hi psgm,

Well done. U deserve the credit. Have the trying the method the last couple of days . Definitely less stressful compared to the others. Will let it run for several days more.

Cheers

Mistakes are natures way of saying

"PAY MORE ATTENTION!!!!"

Hi psgm.
Have a look at the screenshot. At the arrow I went long and it went down.
Is this just one of those or I have missed something?

Thanks

Yes I can see why you entered, a large upturn, and the crossover. Will be interesting to see how this one pans out (It could just be a larger swing than usual)

Looking back (hence the title!!) it was part of a relatively long downtrend. However, It could also be the start of a double bottom.

Assuming this is based on the most recent (ie time now 0829 bst for me), it looks as if indeed a double bottom is forming, in which case you were correct to enter!

From my figures (taking purely from FXCM)

Spread approx 3 pips and the "retracement" was about 5 pips, so with 15 pip SL you should still be in!

Not only that, but also should be starting to make profit (so if unsure of the trade bail out!!)

As a rule of thumb if you make a trade and it falls once but recovers, no probs continue in the trade. If it struggles a second time, and you are still in profit. get out, and look for another strong signal. If it struggles then perhaps it was not as strong as you first thought. If it struggles a 3rd take take the money and run - it has not panned out! These things happen - you could have simply found the start of a period of consolidation - in which you want to be looking for another opportunity anyway!!

If nothing else it appears you have got the basis of my theory - practice makes prefect!!!

I cannot and will not say that the price will fly immediately, or indeed every signal will win, but it looks like your spider senses were indeed correct in the first place.

This is what I found, trust your "spider senses" a 5-10 pip retracement is always a possibility - at 15 pips SL, it isn't going to break the bank, and relatively easy to make that back next time.

Finally if this has helped please give me a rating you feel appropriate to its usefulness - I'm a nervous creature and need the validation ;-)

Ok correct me if I am wrong, but this is how I see you trade has gone so far.....

It didn't pan out (at least not yet!), but its been a relatively long time for little reward. had I entered that trade I think I would have been less than 3 pips down on that trade - so if nothing else you have reduced your losses - which in my book is a bonus!

Hope this helps!!!

Hi Horn i think it miss the 3 and 6 ma on your chart !
Luk

43 pips with 3 trades, 2 ej and 1 eu since Frankfort open ! Don t forget to trade with the trend !
Luk

The clue is in the title!!!

I shall go through why I would have chosen this....

1) Has just bounced off the top of the Bollinger band
2) Has had 3 consecutive downward candles (3 black crows???)
3) Has had a 3/6 crossover
4) Has had a 3/13 crossover
5) Even has had a 3/120 crossover!!!

Good for a 10 pips methinks!!!