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Market Structure Question

  • #21
  • May 7, 2009 6:56am May 7, 2009 6:56am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Your post screams novice, why act like you know what your talking about when you clearly dont? Are you on the forum for the purpose of improving your self-image or ego? Is it working?

Leon
Whats your problem mate. Just because you think there is one way to trade and one way only doesn't make it so. Open your mind a little buddy. I couldn't care less what you think of me, but it is obviously you that is here for the ego boost by bashing other traders.
  • #22
  • May 7, 2009 7:06am May 7, 2009 7:06am
Quoting Agro
Hey mate,

I would urge you to do what I suggest and zoom into a very short timeframe (1m or less), and have a look at price action around the pivot points. You will see that there is a reaction there almost every time. I am not talking about 50 pips, or even 20 pips. It may only be 5-10 pips or even just a time retracement. You will also notice that quite often they will produce a major turning point in the market, giving 20-50+ pips. Then look at the pivot points that coincide with s/r, fibs, 00s and trend lines and you will soon notice that...
I have studied every time frame in more than 20 years and most likely when the majority of members had no access to real-time data. I have seen the changes and paradigm shifts happening many times and especially ultra-short term models with their ridiculously low shelf-life.

Having constructed and tested models live and to exhaustion, I have learned a few things. One of them is that with todays technology, funds in particular and banks employ far greater experts in algorithm-programming that you or me could ever achieve with the technical means to our disposal (and I have access to some of the fastest execution platforms in the market). For example the fact that there are trading programs out there which look for hidden ECN liquidity in their order depth facility including hidden and iceberg order types, makes trading for a retail individual far more risky than you might think. When those programmes are used (which can happen without warning), spikes and blips occur that clear out several levels of stops within a narrow range - but a range big enough to send your 5-10 pip profit target overboard on a regular basis.

These algorithms have fast adaptation abilities and come at a very high price - individuals wouldn't have the technical setup to use them - and banks/funds use them for profit as well as getting better execution of large orders.

For the past 10 years the focus in FX has become to find ever more inefficiencies on the ultra low time frames. What make you think that you have discovered something that thousands of MIT graduates haven't yet thought about or taken into consideration. Science never stops and while we talk about it right now, someone somewhere has completed writing another algo for it.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #23
  • May 7, 2009 7:18am May 7, 2009 7:18am
Quoting Agro
Whats your problem mate. Just because you think there is one way to trade and one way only doesn't make it so. Open your mind a little buddy. I couldn't care less what you think of me, but it is obviously you that is here for the ego boost by bashing other traders.

Im not bashing you, Im was trying to help you snap out of your ignorance. Im bored now though. Goodluck.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #24
  • May 7, 2009 7:45am May 7, 2009 7:45am
Quoting daytrading
I have studied every time frame in more than 20 years and most likely when the majority of members had no access to real-time data. I have seen the changes and paradigm shifts happening many times and especially ultra-short term models with their ridiculously low shelf-life.

Having constructed and tested models live and to exhaustion, I have learned a few things. One of them is that with todays technology, funds in particular and banks employ far greater experts in algorithm-programming that you or me could ever achieve with the technical means...
For me, the key is discretion. It is possible to get a rough idea of when the banks will be looking to take out stops. Options expiration and big fundamental shifts are a couple.

I don't use a 5-10 pip profit target by the way. I was just saying that these levels will almost always produce this type of reaction and that is evidence that there are a lot of orders placed at these levels. For me, a 5-10 pip profit target is not practical, for the reasons you have pointed out, but I am sure that there would be a few traders out there that have made such a strategy work. I however, go for a lot more pips than this.

As far as algorithms go, I would be very surprised if someone could make a totally automated system based on my style of trading. There are just too many other factors to consider than just the level itself.

ps I don't think I have discovered something that thousands of MIT graduates haven't yet thought about or taken into consideration. I am doing the same thing as hundreds of people before me, and thats why it works.
  • #25
  • May 7, 2009 7:48am May 7, 2009 7:48am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Im not bashing you, Im was trying to help you snap out of your ignorance. Im bored now though. Goodluck.

Leon
Thanks for the feigned concern leon, but I know what you were doing
  • #26
  • May 7, 2009 7:58am May 7, 2009 7:58am
Quoting Agro
For me, the key is discretion. It is possible to get a rough idea of when the banks will be looking to take out stops. Options expiration and big fundamental shifts are a couple.

I don't use a 5-10 pip profit target by the way. I was just saying that these levels will almost always produce this type of reaction and that is evidence that there are a lot of orders placed at these levels. For me, a 5-10 pip profit target is not practical, for the reasons you have pointed out, but I am sure that there would be a few traders out there that have made...
All the better if you have found something that consitently works for you.

I am certainly not in the habit of discrediting peoples efforts on the basis that they trade differently from how I make my share. In fact I am not even sure why I responded to the notions of short term pivots.

Nevertheless, all the best.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #27
  • Last Post: May 7, 2009 8:02am May 7, 2009 8:02am
Thanks mate

All the best to you also
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