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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #11,281
  • May 7, 2009 1:56am May 7, 2009 1:56am
I cant post my chart atm but I am more focused on the channel on the tips of those H1 tips. That and a fib projection with stron resistance at 15250 have me watching that as a target correction level. Would also provice some McD divergence which should set up a lekker short. I am short off the 15150 level at the moment targeting a bounce off the 15100 level. Does not look like we will get it tho.


Quoting davids
Funny you should say that I looked at the same thing last night I am with you on this. She is also at the top of the channel
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #11,282
  • May 7, 2009 2:30am May 7, 2009 2:30am
Quoting alcando
I cant post my chart atm but I am more focused on the channel on the tips of those H1 tips. That and a fib projection with stron resistance at 15250 have me watching that as a target correction level. Would also provice some McD divergence which should set up a lekker short. I am short off the 15150 level at the moment targeting a bounce off the 15100 level. Does not look like we will get it tho.
15100 did not put up much of a fight the 50SMA on the 1H is being difficult if it gets past we may get a bounce off the 62
  • #11,283
  • May 7, 2009 2:39am May 7, 2009 2:39am
Quoting davids
15100 did not put up much of a fight the 50SMA on the 1H is being difficult if it gets past we may get a bounce off the 62
I closed for 47 pips I will have a look again later after the news
  • #11,284
  • May 7, 2009 2:53am May 7, 2009 2:53am
Yes the only reason I was focused on the 15100 level is that it supports the bull flag formation and is the normal bounce level at 61 fib.

I still have my short but eyeing a long at the 1h62 or before as there are a lot of factors in favour of a bounce for long between 15050 and 15080. Break that channel and I wont be taking longs for a while.


Quoting davids
15100 did not put up much of a fight the 50SMA on the 1H is being difficult if it gets past we may get a bounce off the 62
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #11,285
  • May 7, 2009 2:58am May 7, 2009 2:58am
Quoting alcando
Yes the only reason I was focused on the 15100 level is that it supports the bull flag formation and is the normal bounce level at 61 fib.

I still have my short but eyeing a long at the 1h62 or before as there are a lot of factors in favour of a bounce for long between 15050 and 15080. Break that channel and I wont be taking longs for a while.
WE seem to think the same way I couild not agree more
  • #11,286
  • May 7, 2009 3:01am May 7, 2009 3:01am
hourly chart for yall real quick, havent had much time lately but gotta a few to post this. located another trendline seen in blue. first one was drawn and black and has pierced, this was an old trendline, the blue one seems to be holding currently, break this and target 62 ema hopefully with a nice bounce to test the broken TL (if it breaks).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,287
  • May 7, 2009 5:17am May 7, 2009 5:17am
Good afternoon everyone, there is a hell of a alot of news coming out in the next few hours so be careful.
  • #11,288
  • May 7, 2009 5:26am May 7, 2009 5:26am
Alan

Have a look at the 26th of July 2007 and the 21st of January 2003 on the daily chart
  • #11,289
  • May 7, 2009 5:56am May 7, 2009 5:56am
Yes big rises hey. Still when we reach levels like this, it is always going to be worth holding some of good short entries to run dead as there is a reasonable probability of a correction. I have my high on any high that is created in the next hour as I am aware that there is another large USD debt settlement due today and it can lead to nice pressurised selloffs from good highs.



Quoting davids
Alan

Have a look at the 26th of July 2007 and the 21st of January 2003 on the daily chart
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #11,290
  • May 7, 2009 6:11am May 7, 2009 6:11am
Morning, folks
Very interesting situation - BoE kept the same rate, and GU dropped down. Why? What have changed?

In 30 min ECB will declare rate. It's expected lower. So what's gonna happen then?
  • #11,291
  • May 7, 2009 6:14am May 7, 2009 6:14am
Quoting Komissar
Morning, folks
Very interesting situation - BoE kept the same rate, and GU dropped down. Why? What have changed?

In 30 min ECB will declare rate. It's expected lower. So what's gonna happen then?
Boe announced more QE !
  • #11,292
  • May 7, 2009 6:18am May 7, 2009 6:18am
Quoting Komissar
Morning, folks
Very interesting situation - BoE kept the same rate, and GU dropped down. Why? What have changed?

In 30 min ECB will declare rate. It's expected lower. So what's gonna happen then?
The statement which is released with the rate. Is why.


Source Bank of England (latest release) Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency Released with Official Bank Rate when the rate changes; Next Release Jun 4, 2009 FF Notes Listed as a 'Tentative' event because the statement is only issued if the Official Bank Rate changes (except under extreme conditions). If the statement is not issued this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the rate release. If issued, the Tentative mark will be discarded; Why Traders
Care It's among the primary tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook, and offers clues on the outcome of future votes; Also Called Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);

Today's [UNCHANGED BOE RATE ANNOUNCEMENT] was accompanied by a statement saying that the BoE had increased the Asset Purchase Scheme (APS) by another Gbp50bn to a new total of Gbp125bn. The effect on a very weak Gilt market was violent with the Jun contract gapping up from around -130 on the day to -60 ticks on the day at 118.95. In fact in the initial surge the Gilt hit 119.31, just 6 ticks below the best level of the day. 10yr cash yields reclaimed 10-12bps of this mornings losses to trade at 3.65%. Short Sterling added a couple of ticks to take the front 3 contracts into positive territory, while the FTSE held on to its 100+ point gain on the day.


In addition to keeping rates unchanged at 0.5%, the [BOE/MPC] also announced an extension to QE, saying that it will buy a further Gbp 50bn of assets, taking the total sum to Gbp 125bn. The BoE went on to say that it expects QE to take another 3 months to complete. The Bank said that global banks, financial system remain fragile and the timing and strength of the recovery are still 'highly uncertain'. The BoE noted that substantial spare capacity should crimp inflation, which is likely to drop below target later this year.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #11,293
  • May 7, 2009 6:20am May 7, 2009 6:20am
But it helped to push the cable to the 62 ema 1hr anyone take it ?
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #11,294
  • May 7, 2009 6:22am May 7, 2009 6:22am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
But it helped to push the cable to the 62 ema 1hr anyone take it ?
yes im in at 15062 on 1hr 62ema, stop now at BE

not looking for a great deal.....
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,295
  • May 7, 2009 6:27am May 7, 2009 6:27am
Quoting fx local
yes im in at 15062 on 1hr 62ema, stop now at BE

not looking for a great deal.....
I took it also. But took profit and out. Don't like trading around news but couldn't help it.. Inverted Hangman Maybe in 3 min.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #11,296
  • May 7, 2009 6:38am May 7, 2009 6:38am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
The statement which is released with the rate. Is why.


Source Bank of England (latest release) Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency Released with Official Bank Rate when the rate changes; [b][size=2]Next...
Thanks a lot for this post.

If ECB will cut rate, then it will weak EU, right?
  • #11,297
  • May 7, 2009 6:38am May 7, 2009 6:38am
Don't know if or how it will effect the GBP..


The [ECB] is expected to announce a 25bp at 11.45GMT today to leave rates at a new low of 1.0%, which many expect to be the floor in the current easing cycle. The real focus of today's meeting however will be on unconventional measures which Thrichet flagged last month. There has been a lot of talk of a split within the Governing Council on how best to proceed. Influential policymaker Weber for instance ruled out pure QE in the form adopted by the Fed and the BoE. The safest bet would seem to be an extension of the terms of the liquidity provided to the banking system from the current 6 months to a year, also hinted at by Weber and assorted members of the Council. Other ECBers, such as vice-President Papademos have hinted at buying bank bonds or commercial paper, but at this stage buying private sector debt securities would appear to be regarded as part of Plan B to be discussed at a later stage if the econ does not improve. 11:20 GMT - [FOCUS COMMENT] - So the first leaks of stress tests hit the screens and can hardly be described as pretty reading, yet as is the wont of the market right now, the news taken as a positive. See page.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #11,298
  • May 7, 2009 6:41am May 7, 2009 6:41am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Don't know if or how it will effect the GBP..


The [ECB] is expected to announce a 25bp at 11.45GMT today to leave rates at a new low of 1.0%, which many expect to be the floor in the current easing cycle. The real focus of today's meeting however will be on unconventional measures which Thrichet flagged last month. There has been a lot of talk of a split within the Governing Council on how best to proceed. Influential policymaker Weber for instance ruled out pure QE in the form adopted by the Fed and the BoE. The safest bet would seem...
Yes, better stay on a side until it calm down.
  • #11,299
  • May 7, 2009 6:49am May 7, 2009 6:49am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Don't know if or how it will effect the GBP..


The [ECB] is expected to announce a 25bp at 11.45GMT today to leave rates at a new low of 1.0%, which many expect to be the floor in the current easing cycle. The real focus of today's meeting however will be on unconventional measures which Thrichet flagged last month. There has been a lot of talk of a split within the Governing Council on how best to proceed. Influential policymaker Weber for instance ruled out pure QE in the form adopted by the Fed and the BoE. The safest bet would seem...
Thanks for the info Ken
  • #11,300
  • May 7, 2009 6:54am May 7, 2009 6:54am
Im long at 1.5067 from the hanging man on the M15, the 62EMA touch and it touched a trend line i have placed on the H4. Anyone else in with me?

Good trading to all
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