EURUSD | Page 4648 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #92,941
  • May 6, 2009 3:03am May 6, 2009 3:03am
Quoting Jasper
Let's hope we read it correctly!
I am scalping BTW

not searching for big moves.

PA moved up and broke through nice resistance .

I collected 10 pips
and waiting for another 10 down till 3294


the bulls are working their ass not to let it down
I SEE YOU !!
  • #92,942
  • May 6, 2009 3:07am May 6, 2009 3:07am
4 hr closed above should test 1.3340 now
  • #92,943
  • May 6, 2009 3:08am May 6, 2009 3:08am
First let's talk about numbers. If you buy a $100 share and after one year your share is valued at $110, most people would say that you have a 10% increase in your portfolio. However, the net increase has to be deducted with the inflation on the currency of the share. If the inflation would be 10% then your share had 0% fluctuation during the year. If your share has +5% but the inflation was +10% you actually lost 5%.

When the crisis started, many started to worry that a policy to overcome the situation would inflate the dollar OR that there would be deflation. It does not really matter what you think - you just want out of the dollar bet. Hence, if you hold stocks in a good company and DO NOT want to be influenced by the dollar you would buy a stock and sell short dollars. EUR (as well as other majors) would then increase when stocks go higher. In theory.

In practice, I do not believe that many investors would sell short the dollar to protect their shares against inflation/deflation. But more than 80% of trading is made by robots. And robots are programmed by institutions. The institution does not even has to buy/sell stocks to play the EURUSD. As soon as the robot sees a divergence it will automatically execute trades on the ... here goes the amazing thing - STOCKS.

If the system would be as in theory, the stocks would influence E/U. However, anyone watching a combined graph could easily tell that actually SPX or DJIA follow the E/U rather than the other way (which would be the normal situation - one would not short the dollar before buying the stocks).

I don't know why it goes like this in the present times. Maybe forex reacts quicker to news... I don't know but it's a fact that I can prove. Se one small example on the chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu vs spx.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #92,944
  • May 6, 2009 3:11am May 6, 2009 3:11am
Quoting david_akc
??

Guys anyone care to help me.
This is taken from timingcharts.com

What is the difference between EUR Day session. EUR Globax and EUR dollars?
i cant exactly tell you what the difference is but the globex is the most representative of daily otc forex prices. you have to remember these are futures. perhaps the days session just represents a shorter time frame per candle (like US stock market open to close), hence the shorter candles with large spaces between them. it appears the euro globex represents 24 hour daily candles, therefore it looks more like the charts we are accustomed to. i cant say what the eurodollar one is, but the current price is in the 99's, so it is definitely not the eurodollar exchange rate. go with the euro globex when using this chart and should be ok. hope this helps.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,945
  • May 6, 2009 3:16am May 6, 2009 3:16am
Quoting dbfusion
I am scalping BTW

not searching for big moves.

PA moved up and broke through nice resistance .

I collected 10 pips
and waiting for another 10 down till 3294


the bulls are working their ass not to let it down
I've had three winning trades today, two short ones and one long, I might have got a little too confident with this present short! We'll see.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #92,946
  • May 6, 2009 3:18am May 6, 2009 3:18am
Quoting TheFisherman
First let's talk about numbers. If you buy a $100 share and after one year your share is valued at $110, most people would say that you have a 10% increase in your portfolio. However, the net increase has to be deducted with the inflation on the currency of the share. If the inflation would be 10% then your share had 0% fluctuation during the year. If your share has +5% but the inflation was +10% you actually lost 5%.

When the crisis started, many started to worry that a policy to overcome the situation would inflate the dollar OR that there would...
80% of trading done by robots? whats this robot called? skynet? just curious, where did you get the 80% figure from? i do realize that there are a lot of black box trading programs, but 80% seems kinda high. i am still a firm believer that people move markets, not the other way around.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,947
  • May 6, 2009 3:20am May 6, 2009 3:20am
wave analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eh1.gif Size: 57 KB
{Promotion Removed}
  • #92,948
  • May 6, 2009 3:20am May 6, 2009 3:20am
Quoting TheFisherman
First let's talk about numbers. If you buy a $100 share and after one year your share is valued at $110, most people would say that you have a 10% increase in your portfolio. However, the net increase has to be deducted with the inflation on the currency of the share. If the inflation would be 10% then your share had 0% fluctuation during the year. If your share has +5% but the inflation was +10% you actually lost 5%.

When the crisis started, many started to worry that a policy to overcome the situation would inflate the dollar OR that there would...
Very interesting. Have you traded this divergence before
  • #92,949
  • May 6, 2009 3:21am May 6, 2009 3:21am
Quoting trader69
80% of trading done by robots? whats this robot called? skynet? just curious, where did you get the 80% figure from? i do realize that there are a lot of black box trading programs, but 80% seems kinda high. i am still a firm believer that people move markets, not the other way around.
I said 80% because I wanted to be safe. Some go all the way to say >95%. Institutions (ie: banks, brokers, etc.) that do most of the trading volume have their own programmed robots to to the job. There is not just ONE robot as you probably thought. There are thousands. As I said, each institution has one or more trading robots that take human inputs for trading. Can't tell you what those robots do, whish I could.
  • #92,950
  • May 6, 2009 3:25am May 6, 2009 3:25am
Quoting Atlast
Very interesting. Have you traded this divergence before
Yes I did. Mind you, that when you trade this divergence you actually trade SPX for EUR. Which means it is influenced by EUR variations. Not all trades would be successful. Short term (ie: couple of hours) and you're out green or red. Or else you could be in for a long ride.

I prefer to trade SPX vs. EUR because all the noise is taken out and the trends are smoother (see the orange indicator in the window below).
  • #92,951
  • May 6, 2009 3:26am May 6, 2009 3:26am
Price may play in Pink area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 06-05-C.png Size: 25 KB
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #92,952
  • May 6, 2009 3:27am May 6, 2009 3:27am
Quoting Jasper
I've had three winning trades today, two short ones and one long, I might have got a little too confident with this present short! We'll see.
don't worry , and don't panic

not first time and wont be the last that a trade goes against prediction.

just wait another 5 - 10 minutes to get sure of direction
I am still in the trade
I SEE YOU !!
  • #92,953
  • May 6, 2009 3:30am May 6, 2009 3:30am
Quoting TheFisherman
Yes I did. Mind you, that when you trade this divergence you actually trade SPX for EUR. Which means it is influenced by EUR variations. Not all trades would be successful. Short term (ie: couple of hours) and you're out green or red. Or else you could be in for a long ride.

I prefer to trade SPX vs. EUR because all the noise is taken out and the trends are smoother (see the orange indicator in the window below).
Have you done the same analysis with the DAX. This is a nice index to trade. What is the most favourable time frame you have for trading this strategy
  • #92,954
  • May 6, 2009 3:32am May 6, 2009 3:32am
Quoting WedWed
Price may play in Pink area
Nice. You still haven't plotted the fork I told you. Keep it as a safety net
  • #92,955
  • May 6, 2009 3:34am May 6, 2009 3:34am
Quoting egkid
Have 3 position long since last week.I think 1.3300 - 1.3340 will tell impotant things when this 4H close but where
Go Baby
Who's Long with me?
  • #92,956
  • May 6, 2009 3:36am May 6, 2009 3:36am
Quoting egkid
Have 3 position long since last week.I think 1.3300 - 1.3340 will tell impotant things when this 4H close but where
If he can break 1.3370 line ,he will fly till 1.3429
Trade Well
  • #92,957
  • May 6, 2009 3:37am May 6, 2009 3:37am
Quoting Atlast
Have you done the same analysis with the DAX. This is a nice index to trade. What is the most favourable time frame you have for trading this strategy
Nope. There's no use. Nowadays DAX, or any other indice would just obediently folow DJIA or SPX... Because the question is not anymore how well are the companies that issued stoks doing, unfortunatley. The question is now how long will the market remain irrational (see the three months bull trend).

You know they say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvable. So, I'm not taking any chances. I think there will be a big dropout on DJIA but just can't tell when. So untill then I'm short on SPX and long on EUR. Whenever I see the big ball dropping I will close the EUR long and go with the tide. Untill there I cash some profit now and then and like any other, scalp.

Somebody said on a forum: "Sell in may and go away." But if you go short now on SPX only you could wipe out your account before they start selling
  • #92,958
  • May 6, 2009 3:38am May 6, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Atlast
Nice. You still haven't plotted the fork I told you. Keep it as a safety net

my friend hope to learn from you .. i use PitchFork and i think thats what u told me ..

what is fork line .. could you show me.

thanx in advance
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #92,959
  • May 6, 2009 3:52am May 6, 2009 3:52am
Quoting TheFisherman
Nope. There's no use. Nowadays DAX, or any other indice would just obediently folow DJIA or SPX... Because the question is not anymore how well are the companies that issued stoks doing, unfortunatley. The question is now how long will the market remain irrational (see the three months bull trend).

You know they say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvable. So, I'm not taking any chances. I think there will be a big dropout on DJIA but just can't tell when. So untill then I'm short on SPX and long on EUR. Whenever I...
As you can gauge, I am more than interested in this. I have traded the indices and Euro side by side, paying general attention to correlations, but yours make the most sense. Whenever I trade them separately I am better off. Together it gets me overstretched watching both and have not had any real consistency. However, your observation presents a simple way to trade both at the same time without overanalysis.
  • #92,960
  • May 6, 2009 4:02am May 6, 2009 4:02am
12:00pm EUR
Retail Sales m/m
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif -0.6%http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ol_refresh.gif 0.1%-0.6%
559 traders viewing now