EURUSD

This is interesting...
I am in Las Vegas - yet I am in the room with the laptop playing e/u.
This is way more fun - plus they won't let me have a demo account for the tables down in the casino...

See if the escorts let you demo

Hehehehe....

You will never learn. Go down with your laptop, gather some punters and open your own betting shop in the lobby. This is how you make money in Vegas.

ps. The bouncer is my brother, just tell him you are my friend.

Good Idea, next time I'm there I will be sure to ask.

I am willing to cooperate, as long as you keep it to a demo.

gotta watch the whole thing.. not bad...

So hey moosebreath, the answer is "Who needs an incentive?" Clearly ... it don't.

So far, the green bar target lacks a'rd 20 pips of getting hit, but with this slow and relentless downward push, I expect it's just a matter of time.

I really anticipated some sort of push back to the central or even the daily, and the lack of interest from the asian session to run back up before dropping and clearly busting yesterdays Low may well be a Clue in itself. It will interesting to see if the Fo/Lo boys take it on or no.

Methinks that would be a telling tale as far as market sentiment goes, and I'd be grateful if they agree with me for once.

20m chart shows some nice pivot and QP action, and not a hint of retracement north yet.

Still happily short...

The magic lines I have drawn on my chart show prior (short-term) support at 1.3282 tested, held. Now I foretell price will slide down in a channel of about 50-pip width perhaps all the way to week's low at 1.3212. A reversal on ECB pronouncements will happen, but me and Kathy Lien do not expect a blow-out upward.

So it is written, so it shall be.

I have a short at 1.3274 tp at 1.3250

LIBOR... good for credit, bad for dollar:

As mentioned in the prior update, the 3-month US dollar LIBOR rate fell to an all-time record low of 0.986%. This historical low in USD LIBOR has several ramifications us currency traders need to consider. US dollar LIBOR is the world's foremost and widest recognized benchmark interest rate banks charge each other to lend in US dollars. LIBOR rates are also closely connected to the Fed Funds target rate and the 10-year Treasury.

LIBOR is one of the core underlying fundamentals of the FX market that I really get excited about and here's what the sub-1% dollar LIBOR rate signifies:

 

1. Conditions in credit markets are loosening and improving
2. Market participants are willing to take on risk
3. Banks are beginning to stop hoarding cash reserves and willing to lend
4. 'Safe haven' demand for the US dollar is waning
5. A good number of banks have de-leveraged or are well along in the process of de-leveraging
6. Money-flows are resisting low risk bonds in favor of higher risk markets and asset classes

And, this potential sign could be the best of all... if the 3-month dollar LIBOR rate trend, in addition to the 6-month and 9-month rates continue lower, combined with what's happening on the USD Index, the dollar could be poised to take a royal beating and move into the realm as a funding currency, similar to the Japanese yen. This could really make for a nasty Q3 and or Q4 for the dollar if the credit markets continue down this road and that would be a dream come true.

In regards to the Fed Funds target rate, what we now need to watch for is the spread between the upper trading band of Fed Funds and the 3-month dollar LIBOR rate. Right now the spread is about 75bps, in other words, 3-month dollar LIBOR is still well above the highest rate of the Fed Funds target trading band of 0.00% to 0.25%. Back in the good 'ole days when the S&P 500 and Dow were on an unstoppable run and the EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD were beating the crap out of the USD and JPY, the 3-month dollar LIBOR rate averaged less than 25bps above the Fed Funds target rate. So, we're not quite there yet, but we are getting there and these are all great signs, both for equities, credit and money markets, and higher-yielding currencies.

1980 Cameron 3 seater?

Are you going to tell us your EU analysis is actually just a lot of Hot Air?

anyone else notice this replicant/parralel in the blue circle?

also these cycle lines were working pretty good today. anyone with cycle line or fib time experience please hit me up.

i cant notice anything to be honest

Well I hit my tp yay!!. Off to work on final's HW.

Parallel i get ((one "r" two "l's" tho)), cuz that's the Universe next door where all my weird relatives are from.

Replicants now...

Nope. Sorry but this Old Schooler only gets flashbacks of Harrison Ford and Darryl H.

Guess I'll bite then in my neverending Quest for more knowledge... wth's a replicant?

[quote=arthurb;2715114]Simple advice, close the trade you should have closed it before, now imagine a "black swan" event and eu goes at 1.5 for a 30 minutes only ...


Hi
What`s Black swan event?

I am curious as well...

[quote=lilypedia;2715590]
From Wikipedia:

The Black Swan theory (in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's version) refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Unlike the philosophical "black swan problem", the "Black Swan" theory (capitalized) refers only to events of large consequence and their dominant role in history. Black Swan events are a special category of what is called outliers.


In other words - something unforseen that would kill your account.

FF trivia... how many hits are there on the FF site when you search "Black Swan"

W/O cheating... more or less than 100? More or less than 500? More or less than 1000?

You're gonna cheat. You know you are. And then you're gonna come back here like you didn't and try to impress all us noobs. Won't work.