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EURUSD

  • #92,781
  • May 5, 2009 2:08pm May 5, 2009 2:08pm
This is going down to about 1.3210 i believe
  • #92,782
  • May 5, 2009 2:13pm May 5, 2009 2:13pm
Today for me this was one of those survive to trade another day, days...

What's really funny is looking at the daily candle it appears it was an easy trading day.
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #92,783
  • May 5, 2009 2:14pm May 5, 2009 2:14pm
[quote=BlueSky07;2714828]Hi Everyone,

I am looking for your honest advice and suggestions.


i can tell you this much. the euro will go back to 1.3066, i just can't tell you when. keep in mind the rate announcement on thursday from ecb which could bring the euro way down. then again, it could just prolong the agony.

if you want to know what i would do, i would hold on to it and keep trading and building up your account. you could even use future profit to slowly get out of position. made $300 today, close $300 of the losing trade. this way you wont feel it as much. dont let that one trade paralyze you.

if you were to close it out now, it is the same as going long on the euro now. would you be going long into an expected ecb rate cut? i wouldn't.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,784
  • May 5, 2009 2:16pm May 5, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting asaari2004
ur prediction always wrong

what prediction ?
those R the facts !
it's Ur problem
that U can't get
My gists !!!
  • #92,785
  • May 5, 2009 2:36pm May 5, 2009 2:36pm
If somebody's prediction is always wrong...go the other way
  • #92,786
  • May 5, 2009 2:39pm May 5, 2009 2:39pm
The best predictions are the ones made after the facts.

Then again, that's one of the mistakes in this business, trying to make predictions
Traders are smartasses
  • #92,787
  • May 5, 2009 3:03pm May 5, 2009 3:03pm
There is the saying reacting is a busness decision , predicting is an ego play,
I still think there is TIGHT relationship between trading and predicting. MAYBE trading is predicting but predicting is not trading
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #92,788
  • May 5, 2009 3:13pm May 5, 2009 3:13pm
Pivots and a simple swing fib. Use it or ignore it. I'm only intersted in it as the DP for today is 2 pips higher than yesterdays, and coincides with the 62% level. More importantly, the Central Pivot (green line) is 4 pips off the 50% level and IMO, will take the precedence over the DP tonite in asia ((now watch it prove me wrong!))

Difference on the other ones is minor as well... price is just wearing a rut in the carpet...

Red bar on top is the current R Zone and is nicely defined.

Nice convergence at the Support level a'rd the xx00 figure as well with fibs, pivots, BB's, and psych levels all crammed together.

Big IF, but IF it was to take that gnarly mess on and punch thru for some reason ((AND CLEAR IT!!)), I'd expect to see the green bar get visited. Lots of interesting stuff down there to run into as well... but at this point, w/o an incentive, I guess the question is "Why would it?"

My "out on a limb" guess for asia would be the zone between the figure and the central will see the heavier traffic, and I'd be alert for a run back to the DP/xx50 level or a tad above to get the Longs all in a lather... say the QP at 3365 for instance.

Either way, I'm outa here for the evening. Careful trades all...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #92,789
  • May 5, 2009 3:18pm May 5, 2009 3:18pm
Ooops, just saw all the anti-prediction posts preceeding mine.

I'm not predicting, I'm anal-izing.

If it works out, whatever. If it don't, whatever. If you don't care, good, that makes at least two of us.



Why are we even posting all this crap anyway?
FUBAR...
  • #92,790
  • May 5, 2009 3:45pm May 5, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting ak4x
Ooops, just saw all the anti-prediction posts preceeding mine.

I'm not predicting, I'm anal-izing.

If it works out, whatever. If it don't, whatever. If you don't care, good, that makes at least two of us.



Why are we even posting all this crap anyway?
for two reasons - maybe 3

1) we're bored -

2) Writing down our thoughts - re enforces what we area thinking, regardless if anybody reads it; cares, etc..

3) some dumbass - {like me} might read it and get something out of it.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,791
  • May 5, 2009 3:48pm May 5, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting ferndog
If somebody's prediction is always wrong...go the other way

Just got to find someone who's always wrong, then keep donating 1% of the profits made from him to him to keep him going!!

My prediction, those little candle type thingys will move to the left
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #92,792
  • May 5, 2009 3:56pm May 5, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting SeerEye
3.) some dumbass - {like me} might read it and get something out of it.
That was good.

Move over a little and make some room for me then... that's why I read this stuff. Some of it anyway.
FUBAR...
  • #92,793
  • May 5, 2009 3:58pm May 5, 2009 3:58pm
because there are those of us who respect your opinion and look for your postings not only to learn from but to confirm our own thinking. thank you.
Quoting ak4x
Ooops, just saw all the anti-prediction posts preceeding mine.

I'm not predicting, I'm anal-izing.

If it works out, whatever. If it don't, whatever. If you don't care, good, that makes at least two of us.



Why are we even posting all this crap anyway?
  • #92,794
  • May 5, 2009 4:00pm May 5, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting BlueSky07
Hi Everyone,

I am looking for your honest advice and suggestions....
Simple advice, close the trade you should have closed it before, now imagine a "black swan" event and eu goes at 1.5 for a 30 minutes only , that's enough to make you get a margin call and put you out, and after that the price goes back to where you want it , lets say 1.25, so you were right about the direction , but you are out, and can not trade bcs you have no more equity available or you cant open a position anymore.
Now imagine if you had closed that position before, you would had speared yourself a lot screen time hoping the price turn around at your favor.

Nothing stops you to open a short position now, if you think it will go down.

You should of course disregard people telling you what to do, including my post, do what you think it is best for you, just keep in mind that black swans do exist, either you want it or not.

Regards
Arthur
  • #92,795
  • May 5, 2009 4:02pm May 5, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting ak4x
Pivots and a simple swing fib. Use it or ignore it. I'm only intersted in it as the DP for today is 2 pips higher than yesterdays, and coincides with the 62% level. More importantly, the Central Pivot (green line) is 4 pips off the 50% level and IMO, will take the precedence over the DP tonite in asia ((now watch it prove me wrong!))

Difference on the other ones is minor as well... price is just wearing a rut in the carpet...

Red bar on top is the current R Zone and is nicely defined.

Nice convergence at the Support level a'rd the xx00 figure...
im a little confused one your out on a limb guess.... your saying long??? im already in @1.3312 and long looking for that move up to complete the CD leg of ABCD near 1.35 maybe not all the way there tomorrow but that would be nice
  • #92,796
  • May 5, 2009 4:14pm May 5, 2009 4:14pm
...I will have.

I will at that time dreaming, next Morning I will see if I miss to predict this move or not.

We will see good move only next fourth M30 Candle, I mean +25/30 pips candle.
When actual M30 closes, wait to close next 3, then will see what happen in the fourth.
If price drop more than 30 pips in any M30 candle before that one, means that Bear will eat bulls this night.

Let's see If I will got it or no, the move can go either way, but I bet a drop in that candle.

take care all
  • #92,797
  • May 5, 2009 4:15pm May 5, 2009 4:15pm
HI there,
Does anyone knows what can happen to the cross EURUSD if the major US banks would need more capital, as a result of the stress tests?
Will USD strengh? Or it does not matter?
Thanks
  • #92,798
  • May 5, 2009 4:24pm May 5, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting ak4x
That was good.

Move over a little and make some room for me then... that's why I read this stuff. Some of it anyway.
oh kay - [scooting over]. {tipping the bag of popcorn} - want some?
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,799
  • May 5, 2009 4:31pm May 5, 2009 4:31pm
a re-test of the 1.3090 / 1.3070 region is the next target for me.

Cheers
  • #92,800
  • May 5, 2009 4:33pm May 5, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting BlueSky07
Hi Everyone,

I am looking for your honest advice and suggestions. I know that most of you will say "dont trade by someone else's calls...trade what you see"...but i just want to hear your suggestions...that's all.

I have been stuck in a EUR/USD short @ 3063 since 4/28. I am trading 1 Full Lot and am currently (-2560). I have about $11k free margin.

Option 1: If i close it now, i will break even for the past month and not loose any, but not gain any either for the entire month (luckily i dont trade for a living...
just saw you post... since you seem not to be overly pissed.. i will try to piss you off alittle.. first off you risked to much... this is more then likely the reason you have gained 2500 before this trade. try limiting your sl to 1% to start off with.. later you can increase it.. 1% means your sl should be 1% of your account.. r/r for myself is rarely less then 2-1 .. if your trading direction keep s/r in mind .. you have to draw a line in the sand on when you are going to exit this trade.. you put all your eggs in one basket at the same time.. had you bought a single minnie.. you could of added on the way up bring ca (cost average) up with this trade. if it went in your direction you could add on the way down and move up you sl to 1% but with more positions. ca averaging can save you ass at times..you missed out on a lot of trading holding position... if you have a system that works 50% of the time and r/r is 2-1 you would be up now.. and following your same system the more trades you make the more you make.. im not telling you to over trade.just trying to show you what was missed holding a losser. lets say an above average trader win to loss is 8-2. to make his average he has to lose 2 trades out of 10. lossing 2 is part of doing business.. those 2 dont mean shit...your account is what counts... dont let your account suffer trying to get 10-10... you cant afford it..imfuo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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