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  • #92,701
  • May 5, 2009 12:11pm May 5, 2009 12:11pm
Some lines I'm watching (note - moved SL above TL)
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  • #92,702
  • May 5, 2009 12:22pm May 5, 2009 12:22pm
Just to throw some fundamentals into the mix, were seeing some USD strength but stocks arent weaking that much, makes me think there is increasing optimism of US hiking interest rates fairly soon?? Any thoughts?
  • #92,703
  • May 5, 2009 12:26pm May 5, 2009 12:26pm
IMO US will not raise rates for at least 6 months if not longer.
  • #92,704
  • May 5, 2009 12:27pm May 5, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting PipLand
Just to throw some fundamentals into the mix, were seeing some USD strength but stocks arent weaking that much, makes me think there is increasing optimism of US hiking interest rates fairly soon?? Any thoughts?
i dont know about a usd rate hike soon, but US is closer to one than the euro. this much i know. i think.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,705
  • May 5, 2009 12:28pm May 5, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
IMO US will not raise rates for at least 6 months if not longer.
ditto - if not longer - may be 2010 before hike
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,706
  • May 5, 2009 12:29pm May 5, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting trader69
i think.
didn't you know that is hazardous to your health?
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,707
  • May 5, 2009 12:30pm May 5, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting SunTrader
IMO US will not raise rates for at least 6 months if not longer.
Yes i think the same maybe right at the end of this year or more than likely the start of 2010, but traders might have started speculating this will happen sooner? Will be interesting to see if this USD strength lasts through to tomorrow
  • #92,708
  • May 5, 2009 12:31pm May 5, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting SeerEye
didn't you know that is hazardous to your health?

this is true. i dont get paid to think. i get paid to trade.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,709
  • May 5, 2009 12:32pm May 5, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting PipLand
Yes i think the same maybe right at the end of this year or more than likely the start of 2010, but traders might have started speculating this will happen sooner? Will be interesting to see if this USD strength lasts through to tomorrow
I was short , so i kept my shorts on not bad today about 80 pips..but a pip for me it´s about 0,32 cents loool . so was not a bad day lol
  • #92,710
  • May 5, 2009 12:32pm May 5, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting PipLand
Just to throw some fundamentals into the mix, were seeing some USD strength but stocks arent weaking that much, makes me think there is increasing optimism of US hiking interest rates fairly soon?? Any thoughts?
To mess with the rates at these fragile conditions would basically mean to kill the market, even an idiot like B.Bernanke, wouldn't do that, i hope, personally i think unless some inflation is on the sight there will be no rate hikes, if any that will hurt the usd sparking a treasury sell off. Rates maybe on October, maybe.
  • #92,711
  • May 5, 2009 12:36pm May 5, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting trader69
this is true. i dont get paid to think. i get paid to trade.
Bingo -
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,712
  • May 5, 2009 12:37pm May 5, 2009 12:37pm
Short or long.

If short won, we will see fast below 1.3177 soon, if bulls won we will see 1.3400 again slow.

Your girl like it Fast or Slow? , just follow her.

Now seriously, we are in area that if price break it could give good pips below it, let's see.
  • #92,713
  • May 5, 2009 12:37pm May 5, 2009 12:37pm
SL moved to +82 pips... looks like it's about to get hit...
  • #92,714
  • May 5, 2009 12:38pm May 5, 2009 12:38pm
euro getting a little oversold here. i will look to short again if/when price tests the tunnel again. new low on the day just hit, good sign of further down move to come.
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"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #92,715
  • May 5, 2009 12:39pm May 5, 2009 12:39pm
we finally rolled through the 33 (qp) level - touched (finally and again) the 25 which is a 50% fib level - now what's it gunna do? things are still lookin' kinda short to me. Could it reach the whole number by close? Update at 5pm Eastern -
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #92,716
  • May 5, 2009 12:41pm May 5, 2009 12:41pm
I like to trade by trend lines and trend channels, but I always try to have my moves verified by a credible Elliot Wave Count, which gives me added confidence in a move. In terms of the EuroUSD, as you've all noticed, it's broken one major trend line and is now adhering strongly to another ascending channel.

In terms of the Elliot wave count, this ascending channel could be the C of a C stroke, the final arm of the final arm of the corrective movement following the major decline that ended in October. It's common for the C stroke to be more complex than A and B, so, a nested zig-zag is not surprising, if that's what we're seeing. It looks like one to me, and the Elliot Wave theory tells us that the arms should be of near-equal length -- so, this should equal the (a) within C, which would put us up around 140.

We'll see, eh?
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Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #92,717
  • May 5, 2009 12:42pm May 5, 2009 12:42pm
Short @ 1.3336 SL 40 pip
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #92,718
  • May 5, 2009 12:43pm May 5, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting arthurb
To mess with the rates at these fragile conditions would basically mean to kill the market, even an idiot like B.Bernanke, wouldn't do that, i hope, personally i think unless some inflation is on the sight there will be no rate hikes, if any that will hurt the usd sparking a treasury sell off. Rates maybe on October, maybe.
Yeah it def wouldnt help the economy right now, guess we'll just have to see what happens with inflation! Although nothing would surprise me if they were to raise them sooner! lol.

Back to technicals and EU bouncing back off 50% fib at 3323, which happened exactly the same time as a failed breakout on usd/chf, i think they are both going back for another go
  • #92,719
  • May 5, 2009 12:50pm May 5, 2009 12:50pm
SL hit. 90 pips, one trade for the day. It's Miller time....
  • #92,720
  • May 5, 2009 12:50pm May 5, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting WedWed
Short @ 1.3336 SL 40 pip
Theres a 50% fib at 3323 which provided support earlier today and also a hammer on the 15min chart, not good place to short from be careful
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