Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS) Method

here it is

show me how you would trade it

more clear charts

Is that reply for me ..

AndsX,

the patterns I am looking for are "extreme" moves in the candles. They may appear near the edge of the Bollinger Bands - and these will tend to be the strongest, but can appear anywhere.

There are patterns that keep repeating over and over, when you look for them they are obvious. Just go over previous charts and you will see this. When I get some spare time I shall try and post them on here - but trust me, when you see them a few times they become obvious!

I have already posted a few as a start, but they are all fairly similar, also I have noticed that between 13.30 and 3.30 BST over the past few weeks there is typically a narrowing of the bands, followed by a sharp candle, that has signaled a 100 + pip move. As sure as eggs are eggs this wont happen today, but would be interesting if it did don't you think!!!

OK first signal I spotted today 06:21 BST eur/usd.

I am based in UK, so please from now on assume BST for all my timings.

Also note eur/Jpy and Gbp/usd are very similar

OK I did not trade this signal, however at 0634 I personally would have been out. Either I would have hit a 10-15 pip profit target, OR as the candle at 0634 I would have called it manually.

However this time of the day, looks quite a tight range on eur/usd so might sit out for a while

0650 GBP usd buy

OK as I am updating live, I have moved the stop loss to +5 pips (as I am not keeping a watchful eye - I am updating this live.

Just as I say that I am stopped out at +5.2 pips on a mini pullback, but the signal has continued to rise. using FXCM mini account stopped out at 1.5013, but peaked at over 1.502 and pulled back. (but I suspect will go above 1.502)

Thus a good 10 pips was available on this one (so had I traded the first - I would already be 25 pips up!

1pip/minute not that bad (at least for a newbie like me!!)

OK 0701 just spiked above 1.502, so a move is coming (tweezer top? = down)

so there is some resistance at 1.50244 by my charts.

As that is near a round(ish) number suspect there could be a move towards 1.5050 if it breaks 1.5030, otherwise a move to below 1.5000 if breaks 1.5010

OK spotted a signal that happened 10 mins ago on eur/usd

(A black cloud candle formation??)

the ema/ sma at the base of the graph (suggested by turveyd)are as follows:

ema: 3

sma : 5,13

Handy that it occured at edge of bollinger band. Also note the relatively longer candle (5th red candle). That in itself could be the ringing of the cash till!!!

OK,

The candle at 0705 was proof for me that this was a downer, and price has just hit the 1.5 (definitely a sweet spot value!) and fell below it

Next targets will probably 1.4975, 1.4950, 1.4925 (based on what I understand of sweet spot theory)

OK 0723 just saw a nice 20 pip move from 0705 to 0723 on £/$

(again 1pip / minute+ seems to be the rate here!!)

Again, don't mind missing out on these early pips if it helps you guys

(so far spotted min 50 pips in around an hour on £/$)

These are not exceptional moves - little and often.......




"If things don't change they will stay as they are!!"

OK forgot to add the other side of the sweet spot targets (pretty important considering I just made 20 pips+ the other way!!!

1.5025, 1.5050, 1.5075

sweet spots = "round numbers" - round numbers .00, .5

Also in between these .25, .75

as £/$ has just bounced around 1.5025, there may be some merit in this theory!!


Total pips spotted so far £/$ 5 May 09 - 80 pips 0740 (1hr 10 mins)

As i say people - this is NOT rocket science!!!

Saw a move at 0740 £/$ buy.

very quickly moved into profit so moved my stop loss to +2.5 ( hence could not lose!)

However climbed to 12 pips so was going to set my stop loss to 10, but profit fell below 10.

Then had pullback so was stopped out at +2.5 pips. However move continues and as I speak, and had I not moved the stop, would be around +25 pips and rising!!

Moral of the story

well I could say I am upset at not getting 25pips, but equally I am happy as it was a win!!!

To me actual profits are always better than potential profits!!!

Just to clarify (total pips spotted (as of 0750 100+ )

Hope this helps you guys with your trades.

Remember I've been doing this for less than a year!

You make it look all simple I got to try in real time. Are you using the MA's and BB's to confirm the trades?

Hi psqm.....you might consider adding the sweet spots - aka physcological levels as price frequently reacts to these levels and they are good places for entries and to take profits - but view them as bands ~5/10 pips wide. Then, when you know how the pair you are trading reacts to these levels you can take partial profits or exit all of your trade.....

There are many examples in this thread.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98028&page=173

Hope this helps.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Hi AndsX,

That was the whole point of this thread!!

The human brain has a limited capacity for processing multiple pieces of information at any one time (I believe fighter pilots call it information overload). Anything more than 5 separate pieces of information starts to get tricky (just try monitoring 5 currency pairs on 1min charts for signals manually!!)

So the key to success is K.I.S.S. (keep It Simple Stupid). The less information you have on the screen the more your brain is able to process that information.

As a result, with no indicators, it should be able to spot these signals on 2 currency pairs simultaneously. (I personally only trade 1 pair at a time, but there is no reason why I have to stick with 1 currency pair all day!)

The more indicators you have on the screen the more complex it is to process.

I will point out at this time that I would consider a cross of moving averages as 1 indicator!

If you find you need multiple indicators, and you are comfortable using them as the saying goes "if it ain't broke don't fix it!"

But as long as you follow simple rules you can't go far wrong!

Here is my modified Sweet Spot MT4 thingy, dotted lines so there less obtrusive and it also draws a stronger BID Line making it easier to see.


Looks good, if not for pesky stops catching you out, you just can't run stops that tight you need to take some chances or you'll be making peanuts all the damn time.

Good morning all,

TurveyD I have attached a screenshot of a setup of what I believe are the moving averages you suggested a couple of days ago.

This may be a stupid question (please forgive - newbie ;-) ), but am I right in thinking that a signal has occured when the 3 has crossed the 6, then both through the 13? Also is it best to wait for that minute / candle to close before accepting as crossed?

The reason I ask, is that in a ranging currency, I am getting lots of bounces, and therefore, if I took every signal, I would be seriously out of pocket!! (due to 3 pip spread from my broker)

How can I filter out these effective false signals. I assume increasing the timeframe would increase the price movements, but would also increase my stop losses, and amplify losses if I get it wrong!!

One last point - you put on the end of your messages - 15pip SL ( or similar ), again apologies if silly question but is the inclusive of spread or do you recommend I add this (i.e. 3ppi spread takes the SL to 15). I guess in 6 months I'll look back on this comment and laugh, but at the mo I need the info!

15 inclusive, playing with the exact value with a demo account currently though, used to use 13 fine but the markets choppier these days.

The Chop is a issue for everyone, sadly the only way around it is to use your brain and only trade when you think it'll be something meaningful to trade.

As to what cross I trade well :-

Choppy Market 3ema crosses 5sma.
More the market strength the more your going to want to wait for the later ones.