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Mikkom's stophunter system

  • #101
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:42pm Apr 29, 2009 4:42pm
Hey Fella,

Today would have been a loser on Cable? I have the midpoint between the last fractal 24/04/09 and 22/04/09 as 1.45832 which hasn't been hit yet. The trade would not have been filled until today at about 10:30 London time and is currently losing but the next day candle hasn't opened just yet (will do so in about 20 mins on my platform).

Did I not read the rules right? Would Cable have been an outright loser today?
  • #102
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:48pm Apr 29, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting Limstylz
Hey Fella,

Today would have been a loser on Cable? I have the midpoint between the last fractal 24/04/09 and 22/04/09 as 1.45832 which hasn't been hit yet. The trade would not have been filled until today at about 10:30 London time and is currently losing but the next day candle hasn't opened just yet (will do so in about 20mins).

Did I not read the rules right? Would Cable have been an outright loser today?
You're correct. All of them are losing, but none of them are final losers, yet.
Also, the exact status of them depends on what time your chart turns over a new day. My day starts at 00:00 GMT. All of them are minus, at this time.
  • #103
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:53pm Apr 29, 2009 4:53pm
Cheers,

I thought I had misread the first post. OK, so I have Cable as currently losing but not lost completely yet.

In this instance, rather than end of play of the day (as this differs for everyone), why not end of sessions? Is this worth considering?

Quoting billbss
You're correct. All of them are losing, but none of them are final losers, yet.
Also, the exact status of them depends on what time your chart turns over a new day. My day starts at 00:00 GMT. All of them are minus, at this time.
  • #104
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:56pm Apr 29, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting Limstylz
Cheers,

I thought I had misread the first post. OK, so I have Cable as currently losing but not lost completely yet.

In this instance, rather than end of play of the day (as this differs for everyone), why not end of sessions? Is this worth considering?
It would make sense.
Mikkom would have to bless it, for the purposes of his thread.
  • #105
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:57pm Apr 29, 2009 4:57pm
@ Mikkom

I would like your thoughts on my question quoted below.

Thanks in advance,

TimeFreedom

Quoting TimeFreedom
You can't have a negative TP? How do I set my TP +20 pips if it's a loss?

Edit: I would have to move my SL then?

TimeFreedom
  • #106
  • Apr 29, 2009 7:09pm Apr 29, 2009 7:09pm
Mikkom,

Thank you for sharing your extremely valuable knowledge! I look forward to learning as much as you are willing to share with us about this system you worked hard to create. Thank you for giving us tips so we can work to learn to trade profitably ourselves.

If you don't mind me asking, what time do your daily bars close?

Also, it seems like changing the location of the stop loss (as a % of the distance between fractals) would lower the hit % of the system. Is this true?

Thanks again, and I look forward to contributing whatever I can to the thread as I learn the system.
  • #107
  • Apr 29, 2009 7:19pm Apr 29, 2009 7:19pm
Results for today (using IBFX):

Eur/Usd: Loss of 14 pips plus spread
Usd/Chf: Gain of 12 pips minus spread
Gbp/Usd: Gain of 19 pips minus spread

I hope I figured this correctly.
  • #108
  • Edited 8:27pm Apr 29, 2009 7:57pm | Edited 8:27pm
Quoting billbss
Today's EUR/USD is a good example.
It broke the upper fractal at 1.3303 (including spread)
I entered long.

Right now it's at 1.3245. It's down 58 pips.

If the tomorrow's bar opens at that price, I will set my TP at 1.3265. (Open +20 pips.)

If price goes up, tomorrow, to 1.3265- I'm out.

I'll have a 38 pip loss for the trade.

No. I don't adjust the SL.

Thanks for clarifying the new fractal position, I was afraid of asking again in case some of these guys jumped on me again.

Glad to see someone else in on EUR/USD.
I am still in that trade and bending the rules a little bit because 1: I got up too late to do anything about it and secondly we are 100 pips away from a major pivot. Adjusted the SL though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #109
  • Edited 11:24pm Apr 29, 2009 10:45pm | Edited 11:24pm
Decided to trail it with a 35 TS after Break Even as it broke out.

PS: Got stopped out at just over break even. It may pop though and I will keep my eye on it, could just be the pullback.

Now, I see why Bill made the 1.3265 call.
This resistance level also showed up clearly on the Weekly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #110
  • Edited Apr 30, 2009 3:38am Apr 29, 2009 11:58pm | Edited Apr 30, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Limstylz
Cheers,

I thought I had misread the first post. OK, so I have Cable as currently losing but not lost completely yet.

In this instance, rather than end of play of the day (as this differs for everyone), why not end of sessions? Is this worth considering?
Sure, feel free to try it.

The problem with that method for me is that I can't easily backtest it for 20 years (I don't have detail data that far).

There is a very good reason I use the opening and 20 pip tp there, I quote mark fisher a bit

http://www.investopedia.com/printabl.../04/032404.asp
(ACD system linked is also worth reading as is his whole "logical trader" book)

Quote
While working on a system to trade as a graduate student at the Wharton School of Business in the early 1980s, Fisher observed the importance that the opening range held in setting the tone for the trading day. In the case of crude oil (where the opening range at the time was 10 minutes), the opening range was the high or the low of the day between 17-23% of the time. If markets were truly random, and since there are 32 ten-minute periods in the trading day, one would expect the opening range to be the high or the low 1/16 (or 6.25%) of the...
Note the bolded section. As the opening range tends to be the point where the market decides its daily direction, it's also one of the lowest risk exit point for the day - violent moves almost always happen AWAY from the opening range.

Why then not just close there, why set the 20 pip tp? I want to exploit the random nature of the markets. The 20 pip is there to squeeze some extra pips out of the market and as opening range tends to be the place where the price tries to decide it's direction, it almost always fluctuates 20 pips to the correct direction during the day. How many times you have seen a candle with open nearer than 20 pips around the high or low? If one of these happens during the day [to the wrong direction] then you have a miss on tp but this is very rare.

edit: Just to clarify, opening range of london session could very well be very good point as well but it doesn't fit my system, someone else might want to use it.
  • #111
  • Apr 30, 2009 12:01am Apr 30, 2009 12:01am
Quoting TimeFreedom
@ Mikkom

I would like your thoughts on my question quoted below.

Thanks in advance,

TimeFreedom
Just set the tp to open +20 pips from open (long) or -20 pips from open (short) - It shouldn't matter that sometimes the tp will be below the opening price.
  • #112
  • Apr 30, 2009 12:04am Apr 30, 2009 12:04am
Quoting Cbh123
If you don't mind me asking, what time do your daily bars close?
My broker uses london time (which I like a lot).

Quote
Also, it seems like changing the location of the stop loss (as a % of the distance between fractals) would lower the hit % of the system. Is this true?

Yes. That's true. But as the system mostly closes on open tp, the hit rate will not be linearly affected as it is on methods that rely on trailing stops or something like that.
  • #113
  • Apr 30, 2009 12:23am Apr 30, 2009 12:23am
Quoting mikkom
As the opening range tends to be the point where the market decides its daily direction, it's also one of the lowest risk exit point for the day - violent moves almost always happen AWAY from the opening range.
Was doing some reading on market profile theory and practice and ORB falls in line with this.

I'll start testing session close but as the data source is from metaquotes for back data I don't know how reliable the results will be (I cant download full Alpari history for some reason, I think their site is having a few issues).
  • #114
  • Edited 3:48am Apr 30, 2009 12:46am | Edited 3:48am
Just a note: None of my systems is written in stone which means that if someone comes up with something with better results than the current system (I can test the suggestions as long as it's daily stuff - I always want my 20 years of test ) then I'm all for it.

If you want more comfort to this method [meaning less trades and less drawdown, well the last one not guaranteed], one method that I have tested andfound reliable is to only enter on fractals that form 123-pattern. This reduces the amount of trades [and is not something I would use for that reason - remember, this is quant system] but if you want to be risk averse then you can try it. JI did a fast check to quantify this, on 123 filter there are 163 trades on one pair, without there are over 600 trades [20 years of data].

I want everyone to remember that this is a "quant" system meaning that on long term the expectancy is positive but on short term you might take losses (I have yet to see a system with no losses) so even if this system would lose next 20-100 trades, I would still use it until it's negative for a long period of time.

ps. always remember that win rate tells nothing, what is really important is the relation of losses to wins (edit: and of course sharpe ratio or something like that).
  • #115
  • Apr 30, 2009 3:55pm Apr 30, 2009 3:55pm
Hi, mikkom

What will you do in accordance to your system when for ex new low fractal formed and last high fractal is lower then new low fractal. Will you set sellstop for new fractal and what initial sl will be in this case?

this situation happens in strong and long trends.

Hope you understand what i'm talking about, if not i'll post example
  • #116
  • May 1, 2009 1:21am May 1, 2009 1:21am
I am just experimenting with the M5 TF just to get me familiarized with entries and exits. Seems to work but you have to move the SL 2 pips above and below to account for the spread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #117
  • May 1, 2009 1:40am May 1, 2009 1:40am
Hi guys,

Well i ended up about break even on those last three trades.

QUICK question can we use the same fractal again when it becomes available, as the usd/chf sell order @ 1.1349 i used last time is now OK to trade off again???

Punta
  • #118
  • May 1, 2009 1:57am May 1, 2009 1:57am
No, we use fractal only one time.

Quoting puntalara
Hi guys,

Well i ended up about break even on those last three trades.

QUICK question can we use the same fractal again when it becomes available, as the usd/chf sell order @ 1.1349 i used last time is now OK to trade off again???

Punta
  • #119
  • May 1, 2009 2:04am May 1, 2009 2:04am
very nice,
could you please choose one or two pairs and regulary show us your trade and pending orders- maybe other thread?
thy bj
BJ
  • #120
  • May 1, 2009 3:26am May 1, 2009 3:26am
Looks good to go on the H1.

And before anyone goes on about this being a D1 system, I am simply testing it on lower TF to see how well it holds water and to slowly get used to this higher TF as I am not used to trading such a long time frame. Plus I don't want to wait 2 days for a new fractal to test.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
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