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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,621
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:05am Apr 29, 2009 6:05am
Quoting macalmd
Hi, Welshguy,

First, congratulation for your nice trade and I hope tonight the Fed rate News favor you to go further.

I enter long GBP yesterday according to the momentum. I was scared when the shooting star appear as you can see in my chart (a little bit different from yours). I close the position with a few pips. My question is: if you see the shooting star as that in my chart, would you still enter or hold you positon?
Hello,

yeh your chart does look a little different - the candle you are referring too, I would not class that as a shooting star, its more like a doji which in fact is a stronger sign of a reversal. Saying that it didn't close below the 8EMA, which would have been my trigger to close the trade, either that or looking at a smaller time frame 1H / 5M to get more information about what was going on. If you post 1H and 5M and i'll try and take you through them to tell you if I would have come out. If you check my video you might get alittle more info.

Cheers WG
  • #19,622
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:27am Apr 29, 2009 6:27am
Hi guys!!

Whats that number on the MACD? I am using the template. It keeps changing with each pip movement. Thank you.
  • #19,623
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:30am Apr 29, 2009 6:30am
Quoting karthik
Hi guys!!

Whats that number on the MACD? I am using the template. It keeps changing with each pip movement. Thank you.
it will change every pip if you are using 1.02 version.
  • #19,624
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:34am Apr 29, 2009 6:34am
Quoting welshguy2000
Hello,

yeh your chart does look a little different - the candle you are referring too, I would not class that as a shooting star, its more like a doji which in fact is a stronger sign of a reversal. Saying that it didn't close below the 8EMA, which would have been my trigger to close the trade, either that or looking at a smaller time frame 1H / 5M to get more information about what was going on. If you post 1H and 5M and i'll try and take you through them to tell you if I would have come out. If you check my video you might get alittle more info....
Hi, Welshguy,

Thank you very much for your kind reply. Here I post 1H and 5M chart on which I mark my entry point. I am looking forward for your more guidance.

I would apologize to the others if the low TF chart could confuse you. I just like to learn more price action.

Macalmd
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,625
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:41am Apr 29, 2009 6:41am
Quoting welshguy2000
it will change every pip if you are using 1.02 version.
Thanks Welsh. Can you please tell me what that number signifies? Is it like a profit target or stop loss??
  • #19,626
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:44am Apr 29, 2009 6:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=20349


Its answered there. Thanks you anyway.
  • #19,627
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:33am Apr 29, 2009 9:33am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,...
Hi, Welshguy2000
The trade you did yesterday confused me.
1/ Obviously 89MA acted as resistance before engulfing candle which closed near the 89MA, and when I turned to the 1H chart, I found price stalled around 200MA level (it’s 89MA level in the 4H chart) , and next candle-sticks formed sorts of evening doji star pattern, that’s another reversal signal. You set TP under 61.8% retracement fib line, did you consider price would pulled back at that time ?
2/ Signal candle was a large candle-stick, how to entry with low risk?
Thanks!
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  • #19,628
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:46am Apr 29, 2009 9:46am
Quoting time1300
Hello all, Just wanted to share my reentry on the USD/JPY trade. After having my targets hit on my last USD/JPY entry..........price has then retraced back to the 8ema and filled the gap and up to the 21ema....
Hi, time1300
Why you did this trade? MACD didn't give any signal in the 4H chart.
Thanks!
  • #19,629
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:02am Apr 29, 2009 10:02am
Quoting welshguy2000
Closed at my TP: 1.4783 ( + 149 pips)

Please see the video review of this trade here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dTehzTxDrA

Please subscribe to my channel to receive updates of when new videos are added.
further question:

According to your reasons, why you didn't trade those two engulfing sticks in the 23/4 and 24/4? They are similar.
Sorry for so many questions!!
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  • #19,630
  • Edited 10:40am Apr 29, 2009 10:17am | Edited 10:40am
Dear all,
Here is my little point of view on GBP/USD.

Price has been confined between 89 and 200 since 21, Apr. All MAs are flat, a consolidation period. Now it break the downtrend channel and 89. Last two candles found support on 89. But the last candle failed to close above price level 1.4772. I view this as a main resistance, u can see how many times price bounce back from this level. The current candle is trying hard to close above this level. If it DOES. Then it will go further to hit the bottom of the previous up channel. Today,however, is USD federal funds rate day. No trade today.

Any comments are welcome
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  • #19,631
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:38pm Apr 29, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting time1300
Hello all, Just wanted to share my reentry on the USD/JPY trade. After having my targets hit on my last USD/JPY entry..........price has then retraced back to the 8ema and filled the gap and up to the 21ema....

LOL I took it also,entered at 9:00 ,thought about to exit before my SL get hit cause of the strong bullish candle at 10:00 but after I saw your post I decided to stay and......what a mess SL hit
  • #19,632
  • Apr 29, 2009 3:35pm Apr 29, 2009 3:35pm
Anyone else happy about the divergence on the EU 4hr?

I would like to hear others' input on how they enter these trades. I don't recall Mr. Nel saying much on the subject.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,633
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:39pm Apr 29, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting yuyudada
Hi, Welshguy2000...
Ok there are a few things here, lets go through them one at a time not to confuse you or others.

1) The pattern you have highlighted in your picture is not a evening doji star, for that to be true the doji would have to up on its own without any overlapping candles - which is not the case here. I do agree with you that there was a slight reversal signal around that area - however if you zoom out to the 4H / 1D you can see that the indicators for an upward move are there. Dont get hung up on 1H charts, you'll get burnt. Big traders know this and will bully the market into confusing people it has reversed.

2) I dont really get your question about the fib, and would price pull back at that time?

3) With a large signal candle, use a 3 lot staged entry. Go into something like the 5Min time frame and do a fib study of the 4H candle, enter 0.1 lot on a pull back to the .38% the 50% and the .61% If your following the rules your stops for all 3 entries should be below the signal candle.

Hope that helps?

Cheers WG
  • #19,634
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:30pm Apr 29, 2009 10:30pm
Hi All

just started looking at this system, very interesting

I am reasonably familiar with the MACD indicator but gotta admit I haven't used one in awhile. What is the changing (- +) number next to the current/last bar and it's significance?

regards all
  • #19,635
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:44pm Apr 29, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting goldsurfer
Hi All

just started looking at this system, very interesting

I am reasonably familiar with the MACD indicator but gotta admit I haven't used one in awhile. What is the changing (- +) number next to the current/last bar and it's significance?

regards all
This has been asked so many times. it means how many pips moving are required for a color change from red to green (+) or green to red (-).
  • #19,636
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:50pm Apr 29, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
EU will find resistance @ 200sma, fib 38.2% and R2 res TL before it can reach H2 level (1.3300). Price currently nearby H1 level, which is another level of its wave... I will watch closely the PA @ H1 chart and the RSI signal @ H4 chart if the price go beyond the pink channel as per the chart below.
Hi all...

Nothing much to say...as I still have my chart doing a great result for my prediction...

Just watching EU progress now...

Comments/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,637
  • Apr 30, 2009 12:47am Apr 30, 2009 12:47am
Quoting fishmen
This has been asked so many times. it means how many pips moving are required for a color change from red to green (+) or green to red (-).
Thanks for answering one more time!

regards all
  • #19,638
  • Apr 30, 2009 1:36am Apr 30, 2009 1:36am
Quoting yuyudada
further question:

According to your reasons, why you didn't trade those two engulfing sticks in the 23/4 and 24/4? They are similar.
Sorry for so many questions!!
To explain why I didn't take these would be easier to make a video - however I do not time to do this today so I will give it a go via txt.

Right the 1st candle you have marked has closed right by the 21EMA, the market had just put in a lower so price action was clearly looking for lower prices. I would never buy near resistance, plus this candle closed below the 21, at this point I was actually looking to see how it reacts off the 21EMA for a short entry. One last thing which noting is that I didn't actually get a MACD signal here like you - check my image before.

2nd: The candle looks slightly different again on my chart as you can see from the image - you have no fib studies or support / resistance lines on your chart which if you did you would see that there is a key daily resistance line around that area. YOU HAVE to take note of where these signals form, what the candles look like and what's around them. Ask yourself, what is the scope of this move? In this case, the market is still in a downtrend (it has not put in a higher high or a higher low yet) so are you really going to make much by going long there? Look at how far the candle has closed from the 8EMA, its a pretty implusive move up, so a pull back to that EMA is highly likely which will give you a better entry. Just because the MACD turns green doesn't mean u go ahead and trade, you need to build up a plan from the daily, weekly and then come into the 4H.

Hope that helps, what my videos and you'll see what I mean the process I go through when i'm going to trade.

Cheers WG
  • #19,639
  • Apr 30, 2009 2:31am Apr 30, 2009 2:31am
Quoting yuyudada
Hi, time1300
Why you did this trade? MACD didn't give any signal in the 4H chart.
Thanks!
Hey yuyudada,

I took that trade on with a 1H entry. As you can see on the 1H chart, there was a round top formed on the 1H with a nice engulfing candle and switching to the 4H, you can see a nice engulfing candle forming on the 4H but a MACD signal was not given yet at this moment. I entered on the 1H as an early entry which I do not recommend anyone doing unless you are very familiar with the 4H entries. I also was watching this trade very carefully and there was a chance of it not do go down further but close above the 21ema and possible try to go up to the 89sma.

As I was watching the price carefully, I saw price not reacting the way I wanted to thus I closed my position with minimal loss and when price closed above the 21ema, I saw the next candle make a little hammer after an engulfing bullish candle and I decided to go long as per our rules. The rules states that if price closes beyond the 21ema after a nice trend, then price will pull back to it which it did and will try to go to the 89sma. That is when I entered long and am still in the trade.

I hope this answers your question............
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,640
  • Apr 30, 2009 3:13am Apr 30, 2009 3:13am
Hi all...

EU has the potential going up to somewhere around 1.3460 (my H2 price level) and could reach fib 23.6% @ 1.3430+/- if the market still continue upside.

I have updated my price wave (80+/-pips), which marked as L2,L1, M, H1 and H2 and the Equidistant Channel (see pink channel) as I see the market is now in uptrend mode. As per charts below, this pair is now stay around price level H1 (1.3380) as the market almost reach the OVERBOUGHT level as per RSI.

Price should be retrace to at least price level M (1.3000) if the market getting weaker before it continue uptrending. Time well tell everything though...

Comments/questions are almost welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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