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  • #90,441
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:06am Apr 29, 2009 8:06am
Quoting Atlast
USD is considered safe haven, so there was a lot of buying last few months for fear of the effects of the credit crunch. Bad news for the economy means fear persists. So more dollar strength. Now with the swine flu, this is a catalyst to move markets away from the dollar to find a safer haven. I see that catalyst persisting for some time, so should drive Eur/USD higher. Just my simple explanation. I am sure an economics expert would give a more enlightening explanation.

Thank you very much for your reply and explanation.
  • #90,442
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:06am Apr 29, 2009 8:06am
Quoting BlueSky07
Hi Everyone,

I've been following this thread for a while now but this is my first post today. I would first just like to say thanks to everyone here....i have learned a great deal from this thread.

One thing i do not understand is why EUR/USD is going down when we have bad US GDP News. Can someone please help me understand this?

Thank you.
basicly we make little anymore in u.s. we import most things.(service economy). were buying less crap. we are fixing the crap we already own instead of buying new crap. unemploment is going up with bad news. we buy less of what we are not buying when we dont have a job. so more of the dollars we have stay home, we save/spend less... bad news for u.s. is worse news for anyone we import from.. (japan, china e-zone) every action has a reaction. deficit down = dollar stronger..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,443
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:06am Apr 29, 2009 8:06am
Man

It's risk aversion , bad news in USA means that the cirisis still valid and bad economics will be also on UK and Europe, so traders buy USD and YEN ( Currencies with lowest interset rates )

Quoting BlueSky07
Hi Everyone,

I've been following this thread for a while now but this is my first post today. I would first just like to say thanks to everyone here....i have learned a great deal from this thread.

One thing i do not understand is why EUR/USD is going down when we have bad US GDP News. Can someone please help me understand this?

Thank you.
  • #90,444
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:09am Apr 29, 2009 8:09am
Quoting gatorinla
basicly we make little anymore in u.s. we import most things.(service economy). were buying less crap. we are fixing the crap we already own instead of buying new crap. unemploment is going up with bad news. we buy less of what we are not buying when we dont have a job. so more of the dollars we have stay home, we save/spend less... bad news for u.s. is worse news for anyone we import from.. (japan, china e-zone) every action has a reaction.

Lol...i love how you explained that in very simple way. Thank you very much.
  • #90,445
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:12am Apr 29, 2009 8:12am
I have the FIRST sell signal I have seen since this rally started. That usually means (but not always) a retest of the high, another drop in price, another retest and good to short.

But we also have more news to come....
  • #90,446
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:16am Apr 29, 2009 8:16am
Quoting dysan4x
I have the FIRST sell signal I have seen since this rally started. That usually means (but not always) a retest of the high, another drop in price, another retest and good to short.

But we also have more news to come....
That could only mean one thing. More correction. When the effects of any bad news wears out, and I'm guessing a few hours, I'm loading up again.
  • #90,447
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:16am Apr 29, 2009 8:16am
Quoting dysan4x
I have the FIRST sell signal I have seen since this rally started. That usually means (but not always) a retest of the high, another drop in price, another retest and good to short.

But we also have more news to come....
yeah i got dollar across board flexing a little and euro retractiong.. i wouldnt bet the farm on it just yet.. but my shorts are green now.. first time today
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,448
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:16am Apr 29, 2009 8:16am
Quoting dysan4x
I have the FIRST sell signal I have seen since this rally started. That usually means (but not always) a retest of the high, another drop in price, another retest and good to short.

But we also have more news to come....
I think she may pull back to 1.32, but she is headed north after FOMC arrive on their silver horses with guns-a-blazin'. It could push to 1.34 before falling again.
  • #90,449
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:20am Apr 29, 2009 8:20am
It would be a wonderful thing to see a spike on bad news down to 1.3153. That level has to be reached as far as I can see. I'm rather hoping it doesn't take all day to get there.
  • #90,450
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:24am Apr 29, 2009 8:24am
there is no power at all
  • #90,451
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:26am Apr 29, 2009 8:26am
Any comments to make about the breach of inverted h&s on the hourly chart?
  • #90,452
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:30am Apr 29, 2009 8:30am
My updated chart... note we are sitting ABOVE trendline which is acting as support. This COULD mean uptrend continues. But... watch for price to fall back below this line as a possible short opportunity.

I went long as we crossed the line (also because it meant we were almost getting back to the week's start price) and picked up about 25 pips. But I'm back out now and won't be entering, probably until after news later today....
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  • #90,453
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:36am Apr 29, 2009 8:36am
Quoting notch
Any comments to make about the breach of inverted h&s on the hourly chart?
not me.. im looking at the monthly one with mouth watering.. R shoulder starts at 1.1100........
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,454
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:37am Apr 29, 2009 8:37am
nap time
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,455
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:40am Apr 29, 2009 8:40am
loose total money in forex anyone can help me ?
  • #90,456
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:42am Apr 29, 2009 8:42am
When was your last trade and which time frame?
  • #90,457
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:43am Apr 29, 2009 8:43am
Quoting Richalok
loose total money in forex anyone can help me ?
http://www.babypips.com/school/

go through every lesson there and use a demo account. Come up with a profitable strategy using a demo account and do that for 3months profitably.

If you get that right then open a live account with a small amount of money. Trade your live account profitably for another 3 months.

If you can manage that then and only then should you put in more money into your live account. (again, a small but workable amount)
  • #90,458
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:46am Apr 29, 2009 8:46am
hmmm im learn from there and practising from last 5 months but my not any method working.
  • #90,459
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:46am Apr 29, 2009 8:46am
Quoting Richalok
loose total money in forex anyone can help me ?
Need more details...
  • #90,460
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:47am Apr 29, 2009 8:47am
Quoting chun2009
hi,sorry i`m newbie trading forex. yesterday i short eu 1.2989. now still lose..anybody can give suggestion? thanks for help...
You need to stop trading real money and then paper trade.
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