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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,601
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:20pm Apr 28, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting fxnoob08
thanks for the reply.

then additions have been made to this method? no where in his PDF does he mention we need to pay attention to the 1hr.

the MA's all seem to be in order for it to go down. are you saying you would not have gone short?
http://www.fxtradeblog.com

You can find early entry using H1 or also you can avoid making wrong entry using H1 in this site. You can also watch my post as an example.

Goodluck.
  • #19,602
  • Edited 11:39pm Apr 28, 2009 11:28pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting fxnoob08
thanks for the reply.

then additions have been made to this method? no where in his PDF does he mention we need to pay attention to the 1hr.

the MA's all seem to be in order for it to go down. are you saying you would not have gone short?
Phil started the thread talking about round tops and bottoms but decided that although he traded them well, it was not a high probabilty trade for beginners. That's why he encouraged us to trade with the trend and the later posts in the thread are dedicated to trading TCs.

That is not to say that, with experience, you won't be successful trading countertrends down the track but keep away from them until you can trade TCs.

The 1 hour is only used for early entries if it supports the 4 hr. All analysis should be taken from the 4 hr.
  • #19,603
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:30pm Apr 28, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
http://www.fxtradeblog.com

You can find early entry using H1 or also you can avoid making wrong entry using H1 in this site. You can also watch my post as an example.

Goodluck.
really appreciate the replies. and not looking to give you a hard time but i'm not looking for early entries. Per the 4H method, is there anyone here that would not have taken this trade. and how do you avoid falling for a round top that ends up become a continuation pattern.
  • #19,604
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:36pm Apr 28, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting fxnoob08
really appreciate the replies. and not looking to give you a hard time but i'm not looking for early entries. Per the 4H method, is there anyone here that would not have taken this trade. and how do you avoid falling for a round top that ends up become a continuation pattern.
If u are new to this method. Only take TC and forget about RT,RB.
  • #19,605
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:40pm Apr 28, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting fishmen
If u are new to this method. Only take TC and forget about RT,RB.
at one point i have to evolve past that though how will only taking CT improve my all around trading and mastery of this method.
  • #19,606
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:50pm Apr 28, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting fxnoob08
really appreciate the replies. and not looking to give you a hard time but i'm not looking for early entries. Per the 4H method, is there anyone here that would not have taken this trade. and how do you avoid falling for a round top that ends up become a continuation pattern.
No I wouldn't have taken that short unless it was at resistance and even then it would depend on what the daily, weekly and monthly were doing.
  • #19,607
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:18am Apr 29, 2009 12:18am
Quoting fxnoob08
really appreciate the replies. and not looking to give you a hard time but i'm not looking for early entries. Per the 4H method, is there anyone here that would not have taken this trade. and how do you avoid falling for a round top that ends up become a continuation pattern.
I also went through the same confusion when I started demo trade the next day I finsihed reading all the lessons.
I was looking at the MACD signals and deciding to go short or long and always the trend changed halfway. Slowly, I understood what the price actions means and how to sync with the market . Once you underatnd the price trends in the different time frames and have established the resisitance and support lines, you have already planned to go for short or long ( always follow the trend initially ) and is just waiting for trigger signal from MACD /candle sticks and break outs and not vice versa. When MACD confirms the price action , you enter trades.
I am still a newbie, but I am seeing marked improvements in my predictions and probability of success after going through the lessons again and again and following the trade videos from OrangeRANGE and other experienced members.
  • #19,608
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:57am Apr 29, 2009 12:57am
Quoting madan64
I also went through the same confusion when I started demo trade the next day I finsihed reading all the lessons.
I was looking at the MACD signals and deciding to go short or long and always the trend changed halfway. Slowly, I understood what the price actions means and how to sync with the market . Once you underatnd the price trends in the different time frames and have established the resisitance and support lines, you have already planned to go for short or long ( always follow the trend initially ) and is just waiting for trigger signal...
Welcome madan64. Good to hear about your progress.
  • #19,609
  • Edited 1:33am Apr 29, 2009 1:04am | Edited 1:33am
Interesting! GU is wound up like a coil inside a channel where the 89 SMA provides resistance and the 200 SMA provides support. When it eventually breaks out, the move ought to be a big one. Which way will it break out ?
Attached Image
  • #19,610
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:22am Apr 29, 2009 1:22am
Quoting fxnoob08
really appreciate the replies. and not looking to give you a hard time but i'm not looking for early entries. Per the 4H method, is there anyone here that would not have taken this trade. and how do you avoid falling for a round top that ends up become a continuation pattern.
Lately, I use RSI (as you can see in my H4 chart) to determine whether that RT/RB is a high probablity trade. Even though the method didn't mention the use of RSI in this system, but I found it is still help me a lot if I combine it with MACD.

I use lower TF (H1) to see a clearer PA when the market reach certain MAs, fib levels and TLs, and I have to ensure that this TF (H1) must satisfy the 4 Hour Rhythm/Rules before I make any entry.

Trust me, you will learn this process without realising it.
  • #19,611
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:27am Apr 29, 2009 1:27am
Quoting madan64
I am still a newbie, but I am seeing marked improvements in my predictions and probability of success after going through the lessons again and again and following the trade videos from OrangeRANGE....other experienced members.
I am not the one who create the videos...it is Welshguy2000 who make those videos...
  • #19,612
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:32am Apr 29, 2009 1:32am
Morning all,

I have entered a long on the GBP yesterday which I did not have enough time to post yesterday. As you will see the momentum started to developing to the upside yesterday around 12:00 - 16:00 GMT. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, which closed below previous resistance.
2) Price failed to push lower on the 4H time frame, and close below 1.4560
3) Price action found support off the 23.6 & 200 moving average on the 4H.
4) Large belt holding candle on the 1H which confirms momentum
5) The daily chart found support off the 89, together with price action placing a higher low - clearly indicating an upward movement.

Entry @ 1.4634
TP: 1.4783 (Just below 61.8% retracement fib line)
Sl: 1.4490

Please have a look at the attached image. I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade which should outline more information.

Any questions as normal please ask.

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4h(28-04-09).jpg Size: 218 KB
  • #19,613
  • Apr 29, 2009 2:02am Apr 29, 2009 2:02am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I am not the one who create the videos...it is Welshguy2000 who make those videos...
Was too fast ... yes.. the credit for the great new trading videos goes to Welshguy2000
  • #19,614
  • Apr 29, 2009 2:47am Apr 29, 2009 2:47am
Hello all, Just wanted to share my reentry on the USD/JPY trade. After having my targets hit on my last USD/JPY entry..........price has then retraced back to the 8ema and filled the gap and up to the 21ema. I made my entry on the 1H with a Round top MACD in anticipation of a lower price move.

Type of Setup: Price filled the gap to the 8ema on the 4H and entry made on 1H time frame
1st reason: Price filled the gap and the following candle formed a spinner just by the 8ema
2nd reason: 1H time frame MACD formed a round top
3rd reason: -DI line crossed over the +DI line
4th reason: The 21ema also sits by the 50% fibo line (retracement) of the last wave down.

Price Targets:
1) 96.10
2) 95.80
3) 95.30


Any questions welcomed.........
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 1h.gif Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 4h.gif Size: 46 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,615
  • Apr 29, 2009 2:48am Apr 29, 2009 2:48am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...
EU still ranging inside the pink channel I made. As per H1 below, I still keep H2 as the highest point it could reach and L2 as the lowest level as its support. I still like to use the 80pips +/- range of wave for this pair...
In longer term (W1 and MN), I think this pair still can bottoming until around 1.2400. Just my rough prediction though...
EU will find resistance @ 200sma, fib 38.2% and R2 res TL before it can reach H2 level (1.3300). Price currently nearby H1 level, which is another level of its wave.

I will watch closely the PA @ H1 chart and the RSI signal @ H4 chart if the price go beyond the pink channel as per the chart below.

Obviously the market is in a little mood of uptrending.

Comments/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #19,616
  • Edited 4:29am Apr 29, 2009 3:48am | Edited 4:29am
I entered AU long yesterday after it bounced off support as well as the 200 SMA with an "morning star formation".

Entry .7028
S/L .6988

Closed at .7141 for 113 pips as both the trendline and the 89 SMA which was my target has been hit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #19,617
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:48am Apr 29, 2009 4:48am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,

I have entered a long on the GBP yesterday which I did not have enough time to post yesterday. As you will see the momentum started to developing to the upside yesterday around 12:00 - 16:00 GMT. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, which closed below previous resistance.
2) Price failed to push lower on the 4H time frame, and close below 1.4560
3) Price action found support off the 23.6 & 200 moving average on the 4H.
4) Large belt holding candle on the 1H which confirms momentum
5)...
Questions for you, WG :

What is the difference between an engulfing candle and a belt holding candle ?

Can an engulfing candle be a spinner ?

Thanks
  • #19,618
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:19am Apr 29, 2009 5:19am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,

I have entered a long on the GBP yesterday which I did not have enough time to post yesterday. As you will see the momentum started to developing to the upside yesterday around 12:00 - 16:00 GMT. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, which closed below previous resistance.
2) Price failed to push lower on the 4H time frame, and close below 1.4560
3) Price action found support off the 23.6 & 200 moving average on the 4H.
4) Large belt holding candle on the 1H which confirms momentum
5)...
Hi, Welshguy,

First, congratulation for your nice trade and I hope tonight the Fed rate News favor you to go further.

I enter long GBP yesterday according to the momentum. I was scared when the shooting star appear as you can see in my chart (a little bit different from yours). I close the position with a few pips. My question is: if you see the shooting star as that in my chart, would you still enter or hold you positon?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-april28-gbp-4h.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #19,619
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:52am Apr 29, 2009 5:52am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,...
Closed at my TP: 1.4783 ( + 149 pips)

Please see the video review of this trade here:

Inserted Video


Please subscribe to my channel to receive updates of when new videos are added.
  • #19,620
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:59am Apr 29, 2009 5:59am
Quoting xeneric
Questions for you, WG :

What is the difference between an engulfing candle and a belt holding candle ?

Can an engulfing candle be a spinner ?

Thanks
Yes three is a big difference between an engulfing candle and a belt holding candle:

Engulfing pattern : http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...ingpattern.asp

Belt holding pattern : http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishbelthold.asp (thats a bearish example, but the same is opposite is true for bullish)

A better explanation is on my video here :
Inserted Video


Well engulfing candle can be a high wave candle, not a spinner as such - they show lack of momentum in the market and should be used to exit positions or a place to move your stops. You really need to buy this book and read it more than once:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Candlestick-.../dp/0471227285

cheers WG
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