Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 126 | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,501
  • Apr 28, 2009 9:06am Apr 28, 2009 9:06am
DanUK, EV, !
  • #2,502
  • Apr 28, 2009 9:20am Apr 28, 2009 9:20am
Just a continued Nod to one of the best threads at the Factory... even if almost no one seems to know about it. Maybe it's best that way. You guys just sit here in a quiet corner and pinch everybodies pips all day...

I always look over my shoulder to see if any of you guys are on the other side of one of my trades...

Whenever I get discouraged about the state of things anywhere, I drop in here and it always reminds me of the things I enjoy the most about all this stuff... two x
FUBAR...
  • #2,503
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:06am Apr 28, 2009 10:06am
Quoting coaster
i didn't even think of going long nor eur neither gbp today..
Not a criticism, but a constructive comment

Having a bias (especially on M5 ) is a dangerous thing. As Douglas (Trading in the Zone) put it, "anything can happen" (at any time) - "knowing" smth and feeling "sure" about it could prevent us from making ourselves available to what market gives us.

Not to say that we should be able to make decisions; but being generally "not Long", for example, is not the same as seeing a setup and acting on it.

Just a thought.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,504
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:15am Apr 28, 2009 10:15am
Quoting coaster
and also here is a good fibo example of today... i didnt participate becoz it was too quick so only watched ... had a loosing line so very cautious now until confidence comes back... see for yourself probably too early for UK though
Apart from Fibo, have a look at SR on the left (marked with yellow). Also, xx00 was hit a couple of bars back, and "00" tend to give some reaction.

Would have been a great trade indeed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fibo.png Size: 39 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,505
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:28am Apr 28, 2009 10:28am
Quoting Forex007
Not a criticism, but a constructive comment

Having a bias (especially on M5 ) is a dangerous thing. As Douglas (Trading in the Zone) put it, "anything can happen" (at any time) - "knowing" smth and feeling "sure" about it could prevent us from making ourselves available to what market gives us.
007,
I like this wise thought too, but i can't solve this dilemma...
For me the day starts with a question where is the trend and I think trend-wise until it's broken.. but sometimes yes, I catch myself at the thought that having a bias creates troubles.. having no bias (not minding the trend) creats troubles too... this is a dilemma which may lead to shizophreny.. so i have to choose one point of view..
which doesn't keep me from loosing time and again and pondering over this issue again
  • #2,506
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:37am Apr 28, 2009 10:37am
Quoting eyevoltage
with the candle shadow (green ellipse). In cases like this one, it shows that price is showing a lot of strength, and that buyers are busy in the market.
EV, nice colours! I bet you were busy the whole w/end repainting your charts Would you mind posting that template - with some light conditions lighter background works pretty well. MANY THANKS!

Do you ever consider setups like the one I marked on your chart (the bar )? If you do - how do you go abt it? MERCI BIEN!
Attached Image
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,507
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:43am Apr 28, 2009 10:43am
Quoting eyevoltage
Yet another fib trade, this time from the EJ.
A very solid close of the retracement on the Long Entry (38.2%) line, followed by a very forceful trend continuance towards Target 2, and a bail-out by yours truly. I think Forex007 would approve of this one, purely and simply due to the R:R involved!
I've been quietly saying to myself for the past few weeks that RRs on this thread are getting better and better!

Nice trade EV, but I have a question. It seems from your chart that you entered during the bar that followed the red candle which stopped at "Long Entry" fibo line. How do we know that the price will not change its mind and will not continue retracing further? With (most of) your other trades you wait for price to confirm its intention, but this one puzzled me somewhat. MANY THANKS!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,508
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:43am Apr 28, 2009 10:43am
Quoting eyevoltage
Support and resistance and price action, mate. That's the whole point of this thread!
That's a good point EV, thanks!

Quoting ak4x
Just a continued Nod to one of the best threads at the Factory... even if almost no one seems to know about it. Maybe it's best that way. You guys just sit here in a quiet corner and pinch everybodies pips all day...

I always look over my shoulder to see if any of you guys are on the other side of one of my trades...

Whenever I get discouraged about the state of things anywhere, I drop in here and it always reminds me of the things I enjoy the most about all this stuff... two x
Lol... I love this quote, it sums up the way I feel about this thread too! It's a hidden gem! The guys here are so helpful and there's no big egos or salesmen either which is very refreshing!
  • #2,509
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:52am Apr 28, 2009 10:52am
Quoting coaster
007,
I like this wise thought too, but i can't solve this dilemma...
For me the day starts with a question where is the trend and I think trend-wise until it's broken.. but sometimes yes, I catch myself at the thought that having a bias creates troubles.. having no bias (not minding the trend) creats troubles too... this is a dilemma which may lead to shizophreny.. so i have to choose one point of view..
which doesn't keep me from loosing time and again and pondering over this issue again
Aha, spot on, Coaster! I didn't want to open a can of worms there, as the dilemma is indeed there. One cannot be "not biased" and going Long/Short at the same time. I was in the same shoes for a long time, and still am with some setups...

There is no simple answer, but I found that the following works for me as far as "what is the trend" is concerned: order of MAs (say 6, 13, 21, 34 on M5); whether faster MAs began to converge (and how far, and what price is doing in respect of the converging MAs); whether price is above/below SMA50. Also, I check higher TFs to see what they are doing, i.e. where the general direction is likely to be (I know that's kind of "bias" - if I see price hitting a strong SR on H1, I know what setups am will be looking for on M5).

Hope that helps!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,510
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:54am Apr 28, 2009 10:54am
Quoting DanUK
The guys here are so helpful and there's no big egos or salesmen either which is very refreshing!
Same here! If I were to design a FX training course, I'll make this thread part of the curriculum.

THANK YOU, guys (you know who you are )!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,511
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:57am Apr 28, 2009 10:57am
Quoting DanUK
I often keep an eye on the Murrey Math lines (as previously discussed by Islander). Attached is a trade based on the hourly lines!
Nice trade, Dan! When you say "hourly", what do you mean - I though MM lines are like pivots, i.e. valid for the whole day on any TF (as levels).

Also, have you considered reversing your positions - that Shooting star at your exit looked good for Short?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,512
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:16am Apr 28, 2009 11:16am
Quoting Forex007
Aha, spot on, Coaster! I didn't want to open a can of worms there, as the dilemma is indeed there. One cannot be "not biased" and going Long/Short at the same time. I was in the same shoes for a long time, and still am with some setups...

There is no simple answer, but I found that the following works for me as far as "what is the trend" is concerned: order of MAs (say 6, 13, 21, 34 on M5); whether faster MAs began to converge (and how far, and what price is doing in respect of the converging MAs); whether price is above/below SMA50. Also,...

Thank you, 007!
  • #2,513
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:25am Apr 28, 2009 11:25am
Quoting ak4x
Just a continued Nod to one of the best threads at the Factory... even if almost no one seems to know about it. Maybe it's best that way. You guys just sit here in a quiet corner and pinch everybodies pips all day...

I always look over my shoulder to see if any of you guys are on the other side of one of my trades...

Whenever I get discouraged about the state of things anywhere, I drop in here and it always reminds me of the things I enjoy the most about all this stuff... two x
One of US??? On the other side of one of YOUR trades?? I can't believe you'd think that of us, old chap! We're all gentlemen and scholars on here and wouldn't DREAM of doing something so dastardly and underhand!!! I ask you....would WE do that to YOU????

Nice of you to drop in, AK, and if we can help by smoothing your furrowed brow from time to time, then you're always welcome!!

Take care, mate. Oh, and if you see the boss-man (acumen) anytime soon, tell him it's about time he started paying some wages around here!!!!

Cheers
  • #2,514
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:34am Apr 28, 2009 11:34am
Quoting Forex007
EV, nice colours! I bet you were busy the whole w/end repainting your charts Would you mind posting that template - with some light conditions lighter background works pretty well. MANY THANKS!

Do you ever consider setups like the one I marked on your chart (the bar )? If you do - how do you go abt it? MERCI BIEN!
No, I changed all my charts this morning, mate. It doesn't take long and one can keep one's eye on things at the same time, so it's no problem. I get fed-up staring at the same colours all the time, so I just thought it was time for a change.
The set-up you're on about, I see purely as a dragon-fly doji, signifying indecision at the bottom of a trend, but with the emphasis and bias with the bulls. So I look at the possibility of going long in a situation like that. However, I'd feel better about it if the doji was straddling the psych-zone, rather than forming underneath it. The psych-zone represents strong resistance most of the time, so any promising candle after the doji would normally have a job in its hands to confirm the message the doji is trying to tell us. I hope that makes sense, mate? Oh, and you're welcome...in French!!
  • #2,515
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:44am Apr 28, 2009 11:44am
Quoting Forex007
I've been quietly saying to myself for the past few weeks that RRs on this thread are getting better and better!

Nice trade EV, but I have a question. It seems from your chart that you entered during the bar that followed the red candle which stopped at "Long Entry" fibo line. How do we know that the price will not change its mind and will not continue retracing further? With (most of) your other trades you wait for price to confirm its intention, but this one puzzled me somewhat. MANY THANKS!
Do you know, I just KNEW someone would spot that!! I thought if I didn't say anything, it would just slide by, but I reckoned without the eagle-eyed members of this thread!!!! You're quite right with your observations, Forex007, and I have no excuse other than I exhibited a quite unforgiveable bout of impatience and jumped in where normally angels fear to tread. Luckily, it came off, but I gave myself a slap on the wrist for that one, and I'm busy right now writing 500 lines: "I will NOT enter a trade until the right set-up has been confirmed!!"
I hope that my metaphoric self-flagellation will suffice?
  • #2,516
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:54am Apr 28, 2009 11:54am
Quoting eyevoltage
No, I changed all my charts this morning, mate.
Could you post your template, please; or tell which colours you used for background and candles. That combo looks great!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,517
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:56am Apr 28, 2009 11:56am
Quoting eyevoltage
I'm busy right now writing 500 lines: "I will NOT enter a trade until the right set-up has been confirmed!!"
Write it right here EV, I know NLP really works and will help me as well!
  • #2,518
  • Apr 28, 2009 12:00pm Apr 28, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I gave myself a slap on the wrist for that one
I did jump the gun with one of the trades this morning too, and got slapped with the loss of 1% of my equity (my standard SL). The next trade was RR2, but the lesson was learnt (hm, more like repeated for the Nth time).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,519
  • Apr 28, 2009 12:08pm Apr 28, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting Forex007
Nice trade, Dan! When you say "hourly", what do you mean - I though MM lines are like pivots, i.e. valid for the whole day on any TF (as levels).
Hi mate,

I'm not an expert on the MM levels so I can't quite explain the geometry of it but you can use different timeframes to display different levels. Kind of like saying, these are my s/r levels drawn from a weekly point of view and these are my s/r levels drawn from an hourly point of view. So using the indicator that I have, I tend to set it to display the MM levels calculated from an hourly point of view and then trade those areas using 5 or 15m price action. I hope that makes some kind of sense!! I believe Islander does a similar thing, although from what I've seen he uses the 15min setting and 5min price action.


Quoting Forex007
Also, have you considered reversing your positions - that Shooting star at your exit looked good for Short?


I would consider reversing a position depending on the trend etc and where the signal came from. That particular hammer was kind of floating around in the middle so I wouldn't have traded it - however the next hammer that came along (see attached chart) pierced the xx80 psych level and would have been good for a quick counter-trend move back down to the 4/8 MM level (or down to the xx50 psych level, in a more traditional sense).

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_2009-04-28_1803.png Size: 28 KB
  • #2,520
  • Apr 28, 2009 12:12pm Apr 28, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi...


PS… Did you notice the bearish engulfing candle (a little later) straddling the 4/8 level that would have been a good trade back down to the 3/8 level!? I missed it but thought it worthwhile noting!
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