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  • #89,681
  • Apr 27, 2009 12:56pm Apr 27, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting emda
that's what smart money managers want you to think
why? because they want your moneyyyyyyyyyy
lol
  • #89,682
  • Apr 27, 2009 12:58pm Apr 27, 2009 12:58pm
Often these 'news' related moves have counter bounces with them and wind up returning to the range it was previously at unless it was in step with the trend.

That's 1.30 thresh hold is a tough nut to crack.
  • #89,683
  • Apr 27, 2009 12:58pm Apr 27, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting Jhig
Come on guys ... this downward move is done! You can't expect a move like this could continue without a retracement soon. It's already retesting this current level without success of breaking through it.
Retracement yes, downward move being done - I don't think so. This is another strong support area from about 3020 - 2980. Expect a bounce or stalling.
  • #89,684
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:00pm Apr 27, 2009 1:00pm
I have to admit that I expected a down move but not as big as this for an apparently "no big news day"... I mean in the FF calendar
That's a big 1H candle.... not to be ignored...
  • #89,685
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:02pm Apr 27, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting emda
I mean in the FF calendar
That's a big 1H candle.... not to be ignored...
Ditto - was going to mention that also - 127 pip candle with very small wicks - on a slow news day - gives me HUGE warning to be vewry, vewry careful.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #89,686
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:05pm Apr 27, 2009 1:05pm
I wasn't expecting a 300 point down move today from Friday, but I'll take it. Don't really know what to think about that last drop, but I'm locked in the plus column.
  • #89,687
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:06pm Apr 27, 2009 1:06pm
Heedful,

Maybe turn or move around the chart!!!
  • #89,688
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:08pm Apr 27, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting dysan4x
Don't really know what to think
I do my very best trading when I don't.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #89,689
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:08pm Apr 27, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting SeerEye
Ditto - was going to mention that also - 127 pip candle with very small wicks - on a slow news day - gives me HUGE warning to be vewry, vewry careful.
only looking at that candle without wick.. one should just go short..
I guess we see 2950 in this hour...

no worries I didn't... I'm standing aside...
  • #89,690
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:09pm Apr 27, 2009 1:09pm
I would consider this move in line with the current short term trend although I have a rather large trend line support at 1.2975 and a fib support at 1.2984 so I could see some reversal or consolidation at and above those levels and not be surprised.

If those are blown it could be quite a down week with a target of 1.2910 first and as far as 1.25 ultimately if momentum isn't broken.

I'm thinking momentum could be capped at 1.2900ish even if these levels are broken. My 4hr stoch is getting close to overbought and daily stoch would have to make a complete turn for it to continue on past 1.2900
  • #89,691
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:10pm Apr 27, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting trader69
it was a quick scalp, 10 pips, already out.

long again @ 1.3003. looking for another 8-11 pips.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #89,692
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:13pm Apr 27, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting trader69
long again @ 1.3003. looking for another 8-11 pips.
There is a descending trendline at about 1.3015ish so be mindful of it. If that is broken with a close above it that's where the bigger reversal could come into play.
  • #89,693
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:13pm Apr 27, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting SeerEye
I do my very best trading when I don't.
Yep...rely on what you see and not what you think. Every time I think I make the mistake of telling price what to do and it ALWAYS tells me who is in charge.

Edit: I was looking for around 2900 today and tomorrow. Better than half way there so far.
  • #89,694
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:18pm Apr 27, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting trader69
long again @ 1.3003. looking for another 8-11 pips.

Why even bother? I am in a short at 1.3290 going all the way down you guys need to throw away your indicators and trade what you see. Since friday you guys are looking long and I am +275
Boycott GFT for NFA hedge rule
  • #89,695
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:20pm Apr 27, 2009 1:20pm
I agree with the downward trend, but in order to continue downward some kind of retracement is in order. Now that the retracement looks to be working it way back up, I would expect price to maybe make it way back up to 1.3105. I say that because, that is where the downwards trendline level is holding. So price could go all the way back up and bounce off the trendline, continuing the downward trend.
  • #89,696
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:21pm Apr 27, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting Pipsta
There is a descending trendline at about 1.3015ish so be mindful of it. If that is broken with a close above it that's where the bigger reversal could come into play.

thanks pipsta, will do. took off most of my position and gonna gamble with rest for fun. i want too see if it retraces back up broken support.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #89,697
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:22pm Apr 27, 2009 1:22pm
If anyone has a scalp long at or around 1.30 it wouldn't be a bad idea to hold them for awhile with SL at BE. This could bounce back up to recent ranging levels above 1.31 and higher. I got one and that's what I'm gonna do.
  • #89,698
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:22pm Apr 27, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting dysan4x
Edit: I was looking for around 2900 today and tomorrow. Better than half way there so far.
Though, I'm more of a scalper (hence the THV3 logo); understanding the bigger picture is crucial. We've blown by the 61.8% fib from the up move 1.2885 to 1.3300. for PA to 'almost' convince me that a full retrace will be in order; I need to see a convincing drop under the 76.4% fib at 1.2983.

I'm biased that it will happen, I just don't know when.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #89,699
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:23pm Apr 27, 2009 1:23pm
found support here
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd042609-16.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd042609-17.gif Size: 25 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl eurusd042709-1.tpl   10 KB | 248 downloads
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #89,700
  • Apr 27, 2009 1:24pm Apr 27, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting Bigfx
Why even bother? I am in a short at 1.3290 going all the way down you guys need to throw away your indicators and trade what you see. Since friday you guys are looking long and I am +275
good point. i was short @ 1.3280 from friday and also shorted on the way down. just wanted to sharpen my knife catching skills a little.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
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