hi folks,
I did a manual backtest on the daily IB for GBP/USD for the 1 year period 12/2003-12/2004.
This was quite a choppy year with a trend towards the end of the year.
To take the trade long or short according to the last week being up or down was a bit of a hit and miss affair.
Even in a well defined trend, a week of consolidation could put you on the wrong foot in which direction to take the trade.
But at the end of the year, we still managed a small profit of 1,665 pips, thanks to that trend in October/November.
The choppiness continues after this year until October 2006.
The results are below. Stops are taken at IB or at 20-day SMA if the trade is running. NT=no trade (wrong direction or trigger is after 3 days), BE = break even; trade has to trigger within 3 days.
3/12/03 +767, 11/12 -248, 23/12 +387, 26/12+321, 7/1/04 BE, 4/2 NT, 16/2 BE, 19/2 -250, 4/3 BE, 17/3 NT, 19/3 BE, 29/3 NT, 7/4 -230, 9/4 BE, 3/5 BE, 6/5 -230, 13/5 NT, 18/5 NT, 20/5 NT, 24/5 +348, 31/5 BE, 25/6 BE, 14/7 -192, 22/7 NT, 26/7 +28, 30/7 NT, 9/8 NT, 11/8 -160, 25/8 -252, 6/9 -170, 9/9 NT, 13/9 -186, 16/9 +184, 22/9 NT, 30/9 -356, 7/10 NT, 26/10 NT, 4/11 BE, 15/11 +803, 22/11 +715, 29/11 +386
in choppy conditions you will lose a little, but in a trend you will rake in the pips
not bad at all considering that all trades were taken mechanicly without looking at price action (maybe better for some?!?).
I did a manual backtest on the daily IB for GBP/USD for the 1 year period 12/2003-12/2004.
This was quite a choppy year with a trend towards the end of the year.
To take the trade long or short according to the last week being up or down was a bit of a hit and miss affair.
Even in a well defined trend, a week of consolidation could put you on the wrong foot in which direction to take the trade.
But at the end of the year, we still managed a small profit of 1,665 pips, thanks to that trend in October/November.
The choppiness continues after this year until October 2006.
The results are below. Stops are taken at IB or at 20-day SMA if the trade is running. NT=no trade (wrong direction or trigger is after 3 days), BE = break even; trade has to trigger within 3 days.
3/12/03 +767, 11/12 -248, 23/12 +387, 26/12+321, 7/1/04 BE, 4/2 NT, 16/2 BE, 19/2 -250, 4/3 BE, 17/3 NT, 19/3 BE, 29/3 NT, 7/4 -230, 9/4 BE, 3/5 BE, 6/5 -230, 13/5 NT, 18/5 NT, 20/5 NT, 24/5 +348, 31/5 BE, 25/6 BE, 14/7 -192, 22/7 NT, 26/7 +28, 30/7 NT, 9/8 NT, 11/8 -160, 25/8 -252, 6/9 -170, 9/9 NT, 13/9 -186, 16/9 +184, 22/9 NT, 30/9 -356, 7/10 NT, 26/10 NT, 4/11 BE, 15/11 +803, 22/11 +715, 29/11 +386
in choppy conditions you will lose a little, but in a trend you will rake in the pips
not bad at all considering that all trades were taken mechanicly without looking at price action (maybe better for some?!?).