EURUSD

The only losing trade I have had recently was trading the long without full confirmation. I expected it yesterday but it does look better today. Off 1 day and 100 points. Guess that isn't too bad considering - gave back 30 points of last weeks profits.

RBA Saw Scope to Cut Australian Rates on Unemployment (Update2)


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By Jacob Greber
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=ixOHRRHIbmM4

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank policy makers cut borrowing costs two weeks ago because rising unemployment and weaker-than-expected domestic demand increases the likelihood inflation will slow.
“The near-term outlook for demand and output in Australia was now weaker than expected,” Reserve Bank policy makers said, according to minutes of their April 7 meeting, released in Sydney today.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said yesterday for the first time that a recession in Australia is inevitable amid a downturn in global growth that is eroding demand for natural resources from the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore. Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens and his board cut the benchmark rate by a quarter-point to a 49-year low of 3 percent this month, the sixth reduction since September.
“The minutes confirm it was a close decision in April,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “The domestic data was disappointing and that tipped them.”
The Australian dollar traded at 70.13 U.S. cents as of 12:50 p.m. in Sydney from 70.07 before the minutes were released. The two-year government bond yield fell 4 basis points to 3.18 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Joblessness Rises
Australian unemployment jumped in March by the most since the economy was last in a recession in 1991. Miners including Rio Tinto Group and Iluka Resources Ltd. are among companies firing workers. The jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.2 percent.
Job losses are easing pressure on wages, which surged in the last five years as a mining boom triggered a shortage of skilled labor that helped to push the consumer price index above the central bank’s target range of 2 percent to 3 percent.
“A period of low capacity utilization and a weaker labor market was seen as increasing the likelihood of a decline in inflation over the medium term,” the minutes said.
“As such, members saw scope for a modest reduction in the cash rate.”
Consumer prices probably rose 2.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slowing from a 3.7 percent gain in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The inflation report will be released tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.
Wages Moderating
The central bank in February predicted annual inflation will slow to 1.75 percent in June and GDP growth will cool to 0.25 percent in the 12 months through fiscal 2009. Policy makers are due to publish new forecasts on May 8.
“Members were informed that there had been further downward revisions to staff forecasts for growth and inflation,” the minutes said. “Gross domestic product was expected to fall in 2009, but increase again in 2010.”
“Conditions in the labor market continued to soften,” the minutes said. “Further falls in employment and rises in unemployment were expected,” and “wage growth was expected to moderate in the period ahead.”
Policy makers have reduced the overnight cash rate target by 4.25 percentage points since September to spur an economy that unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter by 0.5 percent, the first contraction in eight years.
Economic reports released for the March quarter “suggested another weak outcome for demand and output, although members noted that consumption had held up relatively well,” after the government handed out cash grants to pensioners and families.
Government Aid
Since October, the government has announced almost A$90 billion ($63 billion) in grants, spending and bond market assistance.
The central bank’s interest-rate cuts, “together with the substantial fiscal measures, would support demand and help to foster economic recovery in due course,” today’s minutes said.
“A recovery in demand was likely towards the end of the year.”
Prime Minister Rudd, whose government will release its budget for the next fiscal year on May 12, said yesterday that the worst global recession in 75 years “means it’s inevitable that Australia too will be dragged into recession.”
“Seven of Australia’s largest trading partners are already in recession,” Rudd said. “The challenge for the government is to cushion the impact of the recession on business and jobs.”
Traders forecast a 58 percent chance of a quarter-point reduction in the central bank’s overnight cash rate target when policy makers meet next on May 5, a Credit Suisse Index based on swaps trading showed.

We have to be careful, possible big down week for the Dow, which would in normal times mean dollar strength. But times are not normal.
My bias is long.
And when the US market opens, I hope to buy Bank of America stock for $7.50 or so. And Shiti for $2.50.

you longed geppy too ?

It's very nice to see them all lined up. That doesn't happen too often.

Shamu,

RSI and fibs are compelling. However, we are just below 1.3000 a very important level. It may resist to an upward move. That is why I would wait for more confirmation. A violent move may occur at this level. Why to take unnecessary risk?

Not playing geppy at the moment, but I'm gonna take a look now.

I agree, that's why I said "be careful".
And I want to add: be flexible and ready to change your mind if PA gives reason to that.

And the price broke out of the down channel that psiholog was talking about, and more or less bounced off the weekly S1..... looking good for trgt 1,3150 this week and possible also 1,3280

adding to shorts 2975 and 3037

Stoploss above 1.3250?

same as before.. 3567

What kind of more confirmation are you waiting for?

but 3065 should be enough

You must be extremely confident that we go lower, what's your target? 1.25 area?

i have been watching this thread for over 5 months now and i never thought i should post since my post would be nonsense compared to yours ( and i mean real posts since i see lot of nonsense too here ) , after that much time i thought i should contribute at least even if i am wrong but i should contribute since i already learned much here , i have been trading demo for 8 months and trading live after that 4 months blowed my first account already like 3 months ago so i had a fresh start and i am good till now , so take it easy on me still newbie here

Sorry, was one frame down. I always under-estimate your sls.

Hi T@MeR and welcome to FF.

Strap your hat on real tight and follow Seer's advice and watch out when drinking liquids at your workstation. Rumor has it many keyboards have been wasted this way.

Several:
1. A move down before going up
2. Break of 1.2960
3. Break of 1.3000
4. Break of 1.3040
5. Re-testing of 1.3000
6. London Open

i knew you would say that i already strapped my ******* hat tight and i lost my keyboard b4 not due to drinks but i broke it i hope i won't do it again soon at least thanks