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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #7,681
  • Apr 19, 2009 10:10pm Apr 19, 2009 10:10pm
Hi Razor,

Where did you enter that trade? As the low last week was 145.80. And right now its only around 30 pips below that.

regards

tdeu

Quoting Razor_trader
I have taken the Weekly dib on the GBP/JPY. The risk was much smaller this week due to a tighter range last week.

I am currently in and up 70 pips. I will keep you posted on this.

BTW it is on a demo account with a larger balance so I can get a feel for whether it is something to look for in the future.

Good week to you all.
  • #7,682
  • Apr 19, 2009 10:21pm Apr 19, 2009 10:21pm
Taking partial profits at monthly pivots or S/R levels would be not such a bad idea.

Quoting tdeu
Hi Razor,

Thanks for the statistics. Looks promising.

Any ideas for the occurence/handling of IBs that point in the other direction while in a trade?

e.g. EURUSD
11/2/08 BEARISH
11/16/08 BULLISH

Taking of both signals would have required two accounts or some rule to exit the short in favor of the long.

Any idea for taking profits and pulling stops to BE or into profit?

Best regards

tdeu
  • #7,683
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:06am Apr 20, 2009 1:06am
Usd/Chf

IB at 0500, off the 0600GMT open.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #7,684
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:28am Apr 20, 2009 1:28am
Quoting tdeu
Hi Razor,

Where did you enter that trade? As the low last week was 145.80. And right now its only around 30 pips below that.

regards

tdeu
Nice poiint. I went and had a look at my chart and for some reason the weekly low candle was about 80 pips higher than the low created Wednesday. I refreshed the weekly chart and low and behold the extra 80ish pips popped up. It is a Dealbook demo account and im not a fan as of late with the dealbook setup, especially the demo accounts. There demo account charts have candles missing everywhere (which is why i advocated trading a small manageable account if your not ready) and the candle information is quite aways off.

To sum up, I would still be in, by 30 pips but Im in earlier, lucky me. Glad its a demo account (unless it races down 1000 pips lol).
  • #7,685
  • Apr 20, 2009 2:37am Apr 20, 2009 2:37am
Quoting jarroo
Usd/Chf

IB at 0500, off the 0600GMT open.
Stopped out with -16 loss. It didn't quite reach my free trade level.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #7,686
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:21am Apr 20, 2009 4:21am
Quoting jarroo
Stopped out with -16 loss. It didn't quite reach my free trade level.
morning all

hi jarroo nice to see you posting here again.... i would've taken the same trade had i been at the comp. There's another long on usd/chf now but i don't really fancy it as it would need to break new highs before hitting free trade.

lots of movement today.... no trades as yet though
  • #7,687
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:23am Apr 20, 2009 4:23am
bought U/C off GMT 8.00 candle

icarus: I know that it needs to take out the high, but thats how you play these potential breakouts: to get in early before anybody else like Peter says.
will see what happens.
  • #7,688
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:48am Apr 20, 2009 4:48am
Quoting yonnie
bought U/C off GMT 8.00 candle

icarus: I know that it needs to take out the high, but thats how you play these potential breakouts: to get in early before anybody else like Peter says.
will see what happens.

thanks yonnie but i don't take every trade i see..... I've been trading for a good few years now and know how i like to trade.

if there was a little more room for the trade to become a "free trade" before an attempt to break the high then i would have been in like a shot.

I hope the trade works for you, it just wasn't for me.

Regards

ps discretion plays a large part in making this system profitable.
  • #7,689
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:42am Apr 20, 2009 5:42am
I took 1/2 profit at 143.40 for 300 pips.

I will now leave the rest to play out. If I get stopped out then my loss with only be 100 pips and not 400 like originally. Im just trialling this atm to work out what works best (if anything at all). If I get a few trades that pan out like this I may just use a set Limits but like I say I need to work out what may work best.

In my looking over the plan, there were very few times that once you were in the market came right back and stopped you out, so the plan might be take off at X pips 1/2 lots and then close out the rest on friday whether its up or down.

Any suggestions from those who work on higher TFs would be great.

Now to go work on a journal that I have wanted to start for some time. I will add the link.

Cheers
  • #7,690
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:16am Apr 20, 2009 6:16am
Quoting Razor_trader
I took 1/2 profit at 143.40 for 300 pips.
Well done, Razor.

As a short-term trader researching longer-term timeframes (which to me means 4hr, Daily & Weekly), I think it is ESSENTIAL to take money off the table. I know and understand why many would disagree, but if you are trading for money not fun as I understand, 300 pips off the table is real money.

Taking partial profits will almost certanly reduce your gross, but if done properly it should increase your winning percentage and therefore reduce the drain on your emotional capital.

Without a robust emotional capital, there is no hope to trade successfully over the long run. Btw, I appreciate your sharing your longer term research.

My 2c.
  • #7,691
  • Edited 6:35am Apr 20, 2009 6:19am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting icarusfx
thanks yonnie but i don't take every trade i see..... I've been trading for a good few years now and know how i like to trade.

if there was a little more room for the trade to become a "free trade" before an attempt to break the high then i would have been in like a shot.

I hope the trade works for you, it just wasn't for me.

Regards

ps discretion plays a large part in making this system profitable.
Regarding USD/CHF upside IB breakout.

Agreed. Price is right up against 1HR and 4HR trendlines, very little room to breathe. I may take it if it makes a strong move up, as there is very little recent SR beyond that point.

Update: I took the long as price DID make a move upward. However, price stalled as I suspected so I got out for a small loss.
  • #7,692
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:33am Apr 20, 2009 6:33am
Profitable DIBS trades were had on the 4HR TF today using the Weekly open.

I missed USD/JPY but managed to get some profit from EUR/USD and 1:1 from NZD/USD. Initially had set TP at 1:1 for both, but EUR/USD looked like reversing so took profit early on that trade. NZD/USD hit 1:1.

Both pairs were in a nice downtrend with no recent SR other than trendlines. If price stalls at trendlines, I tend to take profit if I'm in 'short term DIBS' mode.
  • #7,693
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:36am Apr 20, 2009 7:36am
Quoting jtrade
Well done, Razor.

As a short-term trader researching longer-term timeframes (which to me means 4hr, Daily & Weekly), I think it is ESSENTIAL to take money off the table. I know and understand why many would disagree, but if you are trading for money not fun as I understand, 300 pips off the table is real money.

Taking partial profits will almost certanly reduce your gross, but if done properly it should increase your winning percentage and therefore reduce the drain on your emotional capital.

Without a robust emotional capital, there is no...
For sure. Whilst there is greater gains to be made, over naturally a longer time frame, there are also greater losses that could stem from allowing a trade to mature and taking some profit off the table is a way to soften a blow if it were to happen.

Some might ask why not move the stop to BE. For that reason I would say read the posts on DIBs traded from a hourly view. By moving the stop to BE yes you keep full lots on the table however you reduce your room for a trade to move, effectively knocking yourself out before maturity.

I may not reach a weekly trading realm anytime soon, but it would be nice to have a separate account with some coin to allow me to place a trade and more or less forget about it while I trade other TFs.

All in time

Take care
  • #7,694
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:45am Apr 20, 2009 7:45am
Well my friends where do I begin. I am no techical computer person, so having a laptop with a mouse that I do not use didnt faze me until recently when typing posts, my finger would sweep across it, put it over something it shouldnt (like the back page tab at the top of the screen) and execute the command essentially wiping everything you have typed.

Well tonight whilst doing my good ole maiden journal entry to kickstart my journal Razors Inside Bars, I finished (well almost) and hours worth of typing and information. However I had 1 up on the computer, I frequently went through and copy the info that I had typed, incase of an occurance of deletion. The laugh was on me as twice it happened and twice I only had to add minimal info.

However, I rang an IT friend to help me get rid to the mouse on the laptop. He guided me through some steps and none worked out. He said the last resort was to go into your utilities after rebooting and disable the mouse from there.

Great I thought, I restarted my computer, chatted away and disabled the mouse. I restarted and HALLELUJAH it worked, no more function from the mouse.

HOWEVER and I mean HOWEVER, I

A) forgot to submit my post, which I intended to after disabling the mouse and
B) didnt copy and paste the info to a word pad or anything essentially wiping and hours worth of info.

So the journal will have to wait another day, my bad. Till then Im going to go and kick myself for being so stupid.

Take care all
  • #7,695
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:18am Apr 20, 2009 11:18am
Closed out last lot at 401 pips. Could let it run however the trendline lingered and i closed. Since closing price has retracted by 30ish pips. I may look for an IB to take a small long if it presents itself otherwise a great start to the week (demo bummer) of 300 pips (200 and 400 ave).

Journal is has open page done, more to come
  • #7,696
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:43pm Apr 20, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Closed out last lot at 401 pips. Could let it run however the trendline lingered and i closed. Since closing price has retracted by 30ish pips. I may look for an IB to take a small long if it presents itself otherwise a great start to the week (demo bummer) of 300 pips (200 and 400 ave).

Journal is has open page done, more to come
------------

Razor, good start to the week!

I'm looking forward to seeing your journal as you post your results.

I have also been thinking about how to make maximum profits with the DIBS system.

Two main schools of thought seem to be apparent as how to manage when you enter and exit a trade:

1) Set a profit target at 1:1, 1:2, or whatever, take the profits at those amounts and compound your account and trade larger size as your account grows.

Or,

2) Get into a risk-free trade as often as possible, and trail a stop if possible and hope to catch a huge trend.

The first option appears at first glance to be the best way but the question is; Is taking a large number of medium-sized gains plus small losses going to be more profitable overall than taking a very large number of break-even trades and a very few huge winners?

The more experience I get and the more I read the more I am convinced that the truly profitable traders use a method that is aimed more toward #2 above.

PC mentioned in one of his early posts that he trades the most "psychologically difficult" method. And it seems to me that he hinted that his objective was to trail the stops behind a moving average on a larger timeframe and let them run as long as possible. That sounds like #2 to me.

The difficulty of that is obvious. There will be many trades that will get into very respectable profit and retrace to stop you out. At breakeven of course, but you will likely have to endure that many, many times in between the rare times when you catch those "runners." The question is; Can you take it?

Not so much losing, but watching potential profits blow away with the wind.

And another question is; Will you be in the one big winner that you need for your profit for the year, or will that be the one you just didn't get in on?

Again, even as hard as that sounds, my instinct still tells me that taking as many "risk-free" chances as possible with the expectation that most of them will go nowhere, and just "being in" when that rare one comes along that pays for them all happens is the best way to trade in the long run. And I think dealing with that difficulty is why only 5% are making the big money.

Just my thoughts. Take 'em for what they are worth.

(By the way, I hope this doesn't sound negative because I think the DIBS system is one of the best I have ever seen.)

Dave
  • #7,697
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:44pm Apr 20, 2009 1:44pm
Well a bit of a rubbish day for me today as I've been stuck in lectures most of the day and unable to get to a wifi spot for my laptop. I took the USDCHF trade that I think a few others of you had which stopped out for a loss, and only got in on the USDJPY after the 4 GMT IB, however thats hit the limit pretty quick and now in a free trade I'll let run overnight. Well slightly more than free trade as I use 2/3 and 1/3 strategy as at this early stage I'd like to bank a few small profits first. Thats it for tonight as its first day back after easter hols for us students, so a big night on the town
All opinions stated are purely opinions.. I may be wrong!
  • #7,698
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:52pm Apr 20, 2009 1:52pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Closed out last lot at 401 pips. Could let it run however the trendline lingered and i closed. Since closing price has retracted by 30ish pips. I may look for an IB to take a small long if it presents itself otherwise a great start to the week (demo bummer) of 300 pips (200 and 400 ave).

Journal is has open page done, more to come
Good job on the WIBs trade.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #7,699
  • Apr 20, 2009 2:49pm Apr 20, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting PistolDave
2) Get into a risk-free trade as often as possible, and trail a stop if possible and hope to catch a huge trend.

The more experience I get and the more I read the more I am convinced that the truly profitable traders use a method that is aimed more toward #2 above.

PC mentioned in one of his early posts that he trades the most "psychologically difficult" method. And it seems to me that he hinted that his objective was to trail the stops behind a moving average on a larger timeframe and let them run as long as possible. sounds like #2 to me....
edit: looks like FF is limiting my quoting ability...

Dave, I have gone through a similar thought process as you, but I was almost immediately decided that #2 is absolutely what PC does. What I am trying to get around now:
1) when to begin trailing the winners. First close below/above the SMA? wait for it to "break away" from the SMA into a runner?
2) Wouldn't that suck if you missed the 50% return trade because you filtered it out by a pip? You mention this point above.
3) Percentage to risk per trade. Still playing with this one...it matters a lot as to whether or not you're taking profits I guess...

In the end, it will simply take discipline trading your DIBS variant and a little luck.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #7,700
  • Edited 6:41pm Apr 20, 2009 6:27pm | Edited 6:41pm
yes, PC absolutely takes no 2 and generally will not close out a trade intraday, unless for a loss.

a suggestion from him is to trail with a 20-day SMA, but that wont keep you in for weeks/months; 1 spike day will stop you out.

I can imagine he would have an emergency stop of say 2 x 20-day ATR in the market and will look at his chart at the end of the day to make a decision to avoid being taken out by a spike intraday.

You can look at the swings and decide what it would take to stay in till the end of the swing.
Somebody earlier in this thread mentioned that to stay in would take a stop of 1 1/2-2 x 20-day ATR.
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