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  • #86,421
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:51pm Apr 16, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting emda
there are only 2 options
up
or
down
With this chart in mind....A descending triangle usually means the pair will go down... Hopefully
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #86,422
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:05pm Apr 16, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting paulw6182
but yes i would agree that a break under 3080... would be ideal for shorting right down too 2500...
Well, i would expect it to stop and regroup a'rd 2720/80 at the least... and the Bulls may have caught their breath by then and contest the whole Thing.

That's a rocky path in there.
FUBAR...
  • #86,423
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:18pm Apr 16, 2009 4:18pm
Shorting at 1.3195 hoping for a pull down to 1.3135
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #86,424
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:19pm Apr 16, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting Pipabix
its mad, we are at major support, and if anything we should be all long, short if we see a close below 3050 otherwise its to the moon
Technically... being anything at a Major S/R level is iffy unless already well into the trade and pofits protected.

My topic of interest right now is the white shaded box. Several days ago I posted we had 3 penetrations of the 50ema and a tap of the 34. Then I posted we had 4. Now we have another one in addition to 3 lower Lows and Highs (on the 5pm EST Close anyway) and now we can add a penetration of the 34 ema as well. Support turning Resistance at the Daily level on these MA's can be detrimental to long range Longs, if it comes to that.

Hammer on anything long enough and one of 2 things happen. Your hammer breaks or the other thing does...

3 penetrations
4 penetrations
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #86,425
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:19pm Apr 16, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting Pipabix
its mad, we are at major support, and if anything we should be all long, short if we see a close below 3050 otherwise its to the moon

Couldn't agree more. This chart tell you which way I am trading this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD 17_04_2009 (240 Min).jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #86,426
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:30pm Apr 16, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting emda
there are only 2 options
up
or
down

Looks to me like a nice flagish pattern. There is also a triangle in the bigger picture of that chart which suggests some sort of correction is in order.
  • #86,427
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:51pm Apr 16, 2009 4:51pm
I have a small short order towards 1.3156
  • #86,428
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:59pm Apr 16, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting emda
there are only 2 options...
Emda, I've taken the liberty to play with your chart a little... and play some "What If?"

Imagine if the 2 candles I've highlited, the FOMC on March 18 and the Double Whammy the next day which was Geitners vague and weirdly worded Bank Bailout plan that scared the crap outa everybody had been "typical ranging days" instead of Record Reaction days to weird murky news.

You could possibly have a whole block of PA that stayed somewhere within the Same range as price has been in since a'rd January 20th except for the Blast below 27xx and the 2 Wild Hair days on Jan 27/28...

Just a thought that we'd maybe still be "Sideways" in a range, and there'd be no "Flag" or Pole to occupy us with Visions of Sugarplums dancing in our heads...

The reason I think this may be important is that "if" there's a buoyancy level here that price will return to for a time once all the Disruptive and Agitating influences outside the Normal have diminished somewhat (post G20 as well included in there), then Price could very well be simply returning to that level in a gradual way w/o necessarily going to an extreme in either direction. For now.

That is currently my inclination atm with a bearish bias at the bottom side of a wide range watching to see if we "step down" a notch or stay in the current zone and move back up to the topside.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #86,429
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:11pm Apr 16, 2009 5:11pm
strange to see everyone saying the same thing with different words:

"it might go down, but wait !!! it might go up, too!!!"

To mee it just looks like people are betting on different theories they have, but none are solid. They all say "it might go up or it might go down" --> DOOHHH where else can it go

(sorry, but i've been reading this thread for a while and that's what i've noticed so far, oh and i've demo tested some of the intuitions on this thread and lost ---- this can be a system if you think of it, you do the exact opposite )

btw, if a nebie ends up loosing in the long term, what would happen if he'd place the bets in the opposite direction each time..in the long run ? Wouldn't he be a winner ?
  • #86,430
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:13pm Apr 16, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting thegman
strange to see everyone saying the same thing with different words:

"it might go down, but wait !!! it might go up, too!!!"

To mee it just looks like people are betting on different theories they have, but none are solid. They all say "it might go up or it might go down" --> DOOHHH where else can it go

(sorry, but i've been reading this thread for a while and that's what i've noticed so far, oh and i've demo tested some of the intuitions on this thread and lost ---- this can be a system if you think of it, you do the exact opposite ...
its going down to 1.3155

will decide later on.
  • #86,431
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:15pm Apr 16, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting Ardafx
its going down to 1.3155

will decide later on.
ok i'm trying it on demo
  • #86,432
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:15pm Apr 16, 2009 5:15pm
Thats the issue with longer term prediction / holds you've got ZERO way to account for Random events which may occur, News being 1 of them, for a certain degree you can get away with it cause the Funds have a idea of which way they want the market to go regardless but thats not perfect.

But not everyones got the option to day trade during the good hours I guess, which makes this game super tricky.

On the plus side new could cause a big move the odds on it going your way are pretty much 50/50, which is where SL's come in, should mean when your on the wrong side your loss is smaller than your profit which = Profit but thats about all you've got in your favour sadly.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #86,433
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:18pm Apr 16, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting ak4x
Emda, I've taken the liberty to play with your chart a little... and play some "What If?"

Imagine if the 2 candles I've highlited, the FOMC on March 18 and the Double Whammy the next day which was Geitners vague and weirdly worded Bank Bailout plan that scared the crap outa everybody had been "typical ranging days" instead of Record Reaction days to weird murky news.

You could possibly have a whole block of PA that stayed somewhere within the Same range as price has been in since a'rd January 20th except for the Blast below 27xx and the...
Don't get me wrong Ak, but that is depressing.
  • #86,434
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:19pm Apr 16, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting thegman
strange to see everyone saying the same thing with different words:

"it might go down, but wait !!! it might go up, too!!!"

To mee it just looks like people are betting on different theories they have, but none are solid. They all say "it might go up or it might go down" --> DOOHHH where else can it go

(sorry, but i've been reading this thread for a while and that's what i've noticed so far, oh and i've demo tested some of the intuitions on this thread and lost ---- this can be a system if you think of it, you do the exact opposite ...
why on earth do you care what others think or say ?
are you sure you will be doing the right opposite and not the wrong opposite all the time ? so you are a loser anyway if you listen to others.
i cant be more clear than this.
  • #86,435
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:22pm Apr 16, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting thegman
ok i'm trying it on demo
note that different brokers may vary at prices by few pips (1-5)
i use netinvest.
  • #86,436
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:23pm Apr 16, 2009 5:23pm
[quote=thegman;2674616]strange to see everyone saying the same thing with different words:

(sorry, but i've been reading this thread for a while and that's what i've noticed so far, oh and i've demo tested some of the intuitions on this thread and lost ---- this can be a system if you think of it, you do the exact opposite )


You may just suck at spotting bullsh!t
Try using your own charts
  • #86,437
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:26pm Apr 16, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting ak4x
Emda, I've taken the liberty to play with your chart a little... and play some "What If?"

Imagine if the 2 candles I've highlited, the FOMC on March 18 and the Double Whammy the next day which was Geitners vague and weirdly worded Bank Bailout plan that scared the crap outa everybody had been "typical ranging days" instead of Record Reaction days to weird murky news.

You could possibly have a whole block of PA that stayed somewhere within the Same range as price has been in since a'rd January 20th except for the Blast below 27xx and the...
LOL you broke my super flag ! hehe.
yes. interesting thoughts... but the fact is that market moved with such historic events... so.. market is where it is.... it already has retraced and eated all those crazy movement.. so we can start again from where we were before those news... but this time more slowly... because it is clear that huge spikes are 100% retraced each time... or maybe 95%... that 5% is those traders who have more patience......

I think EUR is going to go down until next ECB meeting... and Trichet will announce those special measures... then depending on that it could be a buy the rumor... and sell the news...

I expect between 1.2600 and 1.2800 a good level to buy more...
remember COT charts... have changed to bullish... but forget about all my long term trading ... just trade what you see in your system and timeframe
  • #86,438
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:31pm Apr 16, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting knuckledrag
that is depressing.
Hey, it's only make believe... until it happens.

Here we are with the US screwed up, the EZ screwed up, China maybe or maybe not screwed up depending on what they want their Yuan to be worth, Russia with a Ruble in rubble, and Pirates Plundering the High Seas.

In other words ... what's new? Samo-Samo. There just might be a Currency Clue in there as well. Fragile systems that may or may not be on the brink of Recovering or Collapsing don't need too much Chaos w/o a Breather.

Who all remembers back when you had to set an Alert on this pair to let you know it had moved enough to close the spread and you could at least get out at BE if you needed to...? Breakout was anything over a dozen pips...

UJ was Da Pair... except for GJ which required A Pair.
FUBAR...
  • #86,439
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:39pm Apr 16, 2009 5:39pm
I am going to show 2 naked charts, well it is naked to me, because I use Ichi on them.

Only to show levels of interest.
And I am going to say my trade plan for at least tomorrow.
I will close some shorts in these areas:
1.3111
1.3088
1.3044
Then I will leave all my shorts above 1.3333 open.
If price cross 1.3237 now I will close all my shorts below this level.
This is my Trade Plan. I will wait then above 1.3333 levels to short and enter some % at some breaks.
First one The red circles are candles that are showing the Bear strength.
Red Line it is the drop angle and for that angle 266 pips for that range is not enough, must drop some more.
Second Chart, you guys can see some lines of interest and Rsi lines to enter shorts and close ones.
I only talk about shorts, because it is my Long Term Bias, means that I am always trying to pick the tops and leave some trades there open.
I have picked the Top at 1.3737 and around 1.3488, but I do not have more trades in that level, because I needed to close with average some trades I had from 1.3000/1.3133 levels.

For now I am watching the levels I show to close some shorts, and see what will happen tomorrow.
I hope to see first below 1.3100, but I have in mind the big possibility to see 1.3400 level again next Monday or even Tomorrow. I am not counting to see that, because my Daily chart, but if it will so shorts must be very careful, because if price do not retrace fast at that level, we are going to see above 1.3800.

GL ALL and keep MM under control
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #86,440
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:40pm Apr 16, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting emda
LOL you broke my super flag!

I expect between 1.2600 and 1.2800 a good level to buy more...
Those levels are within 50 pips of my original "buoyancy level" posts from mid Jan. I'm still loooking for that as well and will re-evaluate the width of the Range at that point, barring any more Global Shifts any time soon. I have a separate scenario for that.

I'm looking at 26xx/30xx to 31xx currently and and eventual settling a'rd 31xx to maybe 37xx down the road. That's just my "Kentucky windage" indicator tho.
FUBAR...
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