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  • #85,701
  • Apr 14, 2009 10:21pm Apr 14, 2009 10:21pm
LOL....funny how haughty people get when someone has a different pov than them.
  • #85,702
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:02pm Apr 14, 2009 11:02pm
My technical analysis for the day after a week of relative confusion.

My usual channels/patterns are useless right now. Have been for a while so I refuse to portray that. Instead I will show only strong support/resistance levels.

As we can all clearly see we are ranging between 1.3130, a strong resistance that once broken became strong support (failure to break below it occured twice). The current strong resistance is the 1.3415/25 level (was temporary support at the high and once broken became strong resistance with only one failed attempt to continue above it).

Within this range there are two other levels of support/resistance...1.3320 or so which is acting as resistance and 1.3225 which is the current strong support before a retest of the low of this range at 1.3130.

To conclude...it is anyones guess where we go next...my money is and has been on short and that well break through this temporary support...as well as the 1.3130 level. Why? there isnt much in terms of news or extra technical analysis other then earnings reports and the assumptions that the ECB will be forced to cut again(we are ranging after all) HOWEVER the correlation between the stock market and the pair seems to be coming back. The Dow for example right now is sitting on the 7800 level (for those who dont follow equities it is the last level of major support before a retest of the lows around 6xxx is a possibility). We break that dow level (as well as some technical support for S&P as it is more accurate in correlation to forex because of financials)...the Eur/Usd will most likely follow to the downside.

Many words with little to say...but these are my thoughts as they stand.
Good pippin all.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #85,703
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:19pm Apr 14, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting psiholog
My technical analysis for the day after a week of relative confusion.
My old boss used to say the market is a never ending string of confusion surrounded by temporary enlightenment. Price is never too high to buy or too low to sell. There will be days when you take your best guess and hope it is right. This might be one of those days.
  • #85,704
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:25pm Apr 14, 2009 11:25pm
hi guys ..
we may be see 1.2745 for today when final usa ...
  • #85,705
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:30pm Apr 14, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting dysan4x
My old boss used to say the market is a never ending string of confusion surrounded by temporary enlightenment. Price is never too high to buy or too low to sell. There will be days when you take your best guess and hope it is right. This might be one of those days.
as long as lni its not a gamble
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #85,706
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:33pm Apr 14, 2009 11:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
as long as lni its not a gamble
If I'm going to gamble I'll go to the casino. These slooooow Asain markets are getting me down. I got used to fast moves and volatility. This is boring.
  • #85,707
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:36pm Apr 14, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting dysan4x
If I'm going to gamble I'll go to the casino. These slooooow Asain markets are getting me down. I got used to fast moves and volatility. This is boring.
i got a ace in the hole... left nut indicator... i got pips already locked in... if the damn gu goes down a bunch its over...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #85,708
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:36pm Apr 14, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting turkfx
hi guys ..
we may be see 1.2745 for today when final usa ...
could you kindly share how n why u say so?
  • #85,709
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:41pm Apr 14, 2009 11:41pm
we need 76% fibo ..in there and today can do that ,but my stob for this analist is 1.3305
  • #85,710
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:51pm Apr 14, 2009 11:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got a ace in the hole... left nut indicator... i got pips already locked in... if the damn gu goes down a bunch its over...
I took my profits last night on 2 trades just before the bounce back to 3300 for 180+ points. I have one remaining short that is under water, but no worries. I set that SL to BE covered by last night profits. Right now I'm looking for another short entry. A move to todays pivot would be nice.
  • #85,711
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:54pm Apr 14, 2009 11:54pm
i got an entry indication on S
au now..but with nothing really moving i dont know...it just reversed barely missing my sl.. be + a few
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #85,712
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:11am Apr 15, 2009 12:11am
hi Gatorinla,

what does "be+" means? thanks,,,
  • #85,713
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:17am Apr 15, 2009 12:17am
break even
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #85,714
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:40am Apr 15, 2009 12:40am
Quoting gatorinla
yes i just keep adding.. im better then be but i like to get 100 pips between before taken another position.. im trying to leverge early in move... i may let them just ride.. im 3x normal in ea already..be+6 au is not yet comfirmed for me but it was at a 6 month high so im in but just one position.. when it gets comfirmation it will be far enough down to 3x position..shortly...i will do more on it since it was at a long term double high.. i do have the 5/20,50,100 1hr ma waiting for 4hr 5/20 comfirmation on au we r close
I'm currently long on the GBP/JPY for the small retrace. I've managed to take a bit off the table and make it into a 'free trade'. But yeah it is bearish bias.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...56&postcount=4
  • #85,715
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:50am Apr 15, 2009 12:50am
Quoting dysan4x
A move to todays pivot would be nice.
out of curiousity...what is todays pivot?

the reason i ask is because the daily candlesticks as they stand suggest continuation up with a much greater rally. but since we all seem to have a bearish bias...this current daily candlestick should not retrace more then lats say 50% of the previous one which puts the value at ....1.3300
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #85,716
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:55am Apr 15, 2009 12:55am
edit: whoops mistake. wrong thread.
  • #85,717
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:56am Apr 15, 2009 12:56am
EU: Yeah, the asian session has not moved the price much, only about a 54 pip range. But that does not mean there is not a lot going on. There was a period of a couple hours where the relative volume was 50% to over 100% above average, and it happened all to be on the drop following the gradual price rise that started with the new session. So, I read that as a "pump to dump" senario.....they worked it up on as little volume ("cost") as they could get away with, until it became too expensive to try an run it up further, and then they heavily dumped (shorted). Since then they have been working the PA back up again......on VERY light volume. The game here is to take on as much shorts at as high a price as possible....to not drive the price down too far when they start shorting....recover the price....do it again.....and again....and all the while they have to get someone else suckered in to go long on the opposite side of the shorts they want!

And that is how I see it that the price is really going nowhere right now.
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  • #85,718
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:02am Apr 15, 2009 1:02am
Quoting psiholog
out of curiousity...what is todays pivot?

the reason i ask is because the daily candlesticks as they stand suggest continuation up with a much greater rally. but since we all seem to have a bearish bias...this current daily candlestick should not retrace more then lats say 50% of the previous one which puts the value at ....1.3300
Daily pivot is at 3288
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205733/
  • #85,719
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:02am Apr 15, 2009 1:02am
Quoting traderathome
And that is how I see it that the price is really going nowhere right now.
1hour to go until euro session and we are dangerously close to that 1.3225 support which if broken creates room to 1.3130. We may see that sudden move soon...you never know.


EDIT: thanks altrader for confirming my analysis...so whats left of my short from 1.3375 will get stopped out at....1.3310 if we get that high
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #85,720
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:06am Apr 15, 2009 1:06am
Quoting psiholog
1hour to go until euro session and we are dangerously close to that 1.3225 support which if broken creates room to 1.3130. We may see that sudden move soon...you never know.
That's what I'm waiting for as well to happen, as I'm seeing more chances for short today than long. If confirmed, I'm aiming 1.3184 as my first target, follow by 1.3162 and 1.3127.

Best of luck.
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