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  • #84,821
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:06am Apr 11, 2009 9:06am
Quoting trading801
current price 1.3177

community service
current price 1.3187
  • #84,822
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:11am Apr 11, 2009 9:11am
Hi-

I don't really know why gaps occur-though I can guess that they are a result of Fundamentals,Technical and I think more importantly, lack of liquidity.
But I have seen in last few months, the gaps have been occurring with a greater frequency on many pairs. I see Sunday opens as continuation of Friday closes (more often than not).

Gaps can stop you out, but you could also profit off them. For me it really depends on what my H4s are telling me near close of New York session on Fridays, if you decide to play this pls do be careful about the entry as there is a reversal just before NY close due to profit takings.



Quoting billye
hi sandhu:
one question, why we usually see a jump off in asia monday (us sunday) open price VS us Friday afternoon close price? known as a GAP?

I closed my position before Friday close to avoid seeing a gap...
  • #84,823
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:21am Apr 11, 2009 9:21am
Quoting SunTrader
20% ROI per month no matter how good a trader is not sustainable long term. Just so the term long term is understood I mean 5 years minimum.

But even then it is unrealistic since 20%/month return would double account every few months.

It has been said on dozens of posts by others that at that rate it wouldn't be long before the trader owned all the assets in the world/universe.
Hi Folks,

This may not be the right place for this discussion - tell me if its not and I'll shut up.

But I'd like to explore this debate a bit further .

I'm playing devils advocate here and neither believe nor dis-believe some of the claims posted on FF. But I do think on the face of it that 20% per week or month is attainable.

Lets ignore that figure to start with and look at pips - what is a reasonable no of pips profit per day/week do you guys think is achievable.

Lets say that 50 pw(10 p day) is do-able - not an outlandish number I think you'll agree.

Ok so now lets assume someone has a 20k account - what is a reasonable level to trade at. i.e. the value per pip. I think that with a 20k account I would be comfortable trading $10 per pip(1 contract). Ok so if I'm trading $10 per pip and I'm making 50 pips per week thats $500 per week or 2.5%. Do you see where I'm going with this? 2.5% pw is 10% pm - not %20 pw but not a bad return on my capital, I think you'll agree.

Now lets explore that a bit more.

Is 10 pips per day a reasonable target - I think its a bit conservative and I'd be surprised if most traders here don't make at least 20 per day if not more. This is also only utilising 5:1 leverage - which I think is also fairly achievable and conservative.

Do you get my drift - If we now increase our leverage to 10:1 we can trade $20 pp and if, for arguments sake we made 20 pips p day we would be making $2k per week or 10%.

Now I know all this is hypothetical but you can see how the 20% figure is not so impossible after all.

Ok I'll stop rambling now - comments welcome.
  • #84,824
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:41am Apr 11, 2009 9:41am
I'm looking to go long .. 1.31 to with a stop at 1.3396 and maybe to 1.3499 on a 4 hr chart.
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  • #84,825
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:50am Apr 11, 2009 9:50am
Quoting stewrigh
comments welcome.
It is the idea to be able do it week after week, month after month, year after year is somehow attainable.

It is only if your name is Bernie Madoff.
  • #84,826
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:56am Apr 11, 2009 9:56am
Quoting billye
when is dow futures trading start for monday? friday it was closed

thanks
I always check with the particular exchange website to get the best info.

CME Group Equity Products (which covers S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq Futures)

Thursday, Apr 91515 CT – Regular CME Globex close for trade date Thursday, Apr 9

Friday, Apr 10 - CME Globex is closed

Sunday, Apr 12 1700 CT – Regular CME Globex open for trade date Monday, Apr 13
  • #84,827
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:59am Apr 11, 2009 9:59am
Quoting SunTrader
I always check with the particular exchange website to get the best info.

CME Group Equity Products (which covers S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq Futures)

Thursday, Apr 91515 CT – Regular CME Globex close for trade date Thursday, Apr 9

Friday, Apr 10 - CME Globex is closed

Sunday, Apr 12 1700 CT – Regular CME Globex open for trade date Monday, Apr 13
great... sounds like worth some time sitting to watch for the exact open time
  • #84,828
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:00am Apr 11, 2009 10:00am
Hi-

I will second SunTrader that 20%/month is not sustainable month over month, year after year. I have traded live from about 2 years now, month after month I have averaged 1-4 %. 2008 was a very good year for me, my ROI was 34 % (do note that I trade with a very good size account for some one with only 3 years of net trading exp). This year So far I am up only 10 % (averaged 3 % a month).

I am not being disrespectable to anyone who might think they can sustain 20 % a month. May be it is even possible on a micro, but on a standard account where a pip value is 10 dollars, it just sends shivers down my spine what kind of risk and number of trades a trader may be taking.

Is 10 pips a day reasonable? Traders here avergae more than that. But it is a little hard to understand how you measure ROI in terms of pips. It all boils down to leverage. If I use 2 % leverage on a 30 K account, it will allow me to trade about 10 lots, which means if my success rate is even 60 % I make more than 20 % of my principal every month I may make 10 pips and more every single day, but do I play 10 lots? Hell Nooo!!

Be careful out there. What is the hurry.


Quoting stewrigh
Hi Folks,

This may not be the right place for this discussion - tell me if its not and I'll shut up.

But I'd like to explore this debate a bit further .

I'm playing devils advocate here and neither believe nor dis-believe some of the claims posted on FF. But I do think on the face of it that 20% per week or month is attainable.

Lets ignore that figure to start with and look at pips - what is a reasonable no of pips profit per day/week do you guys think is achievable.

Lets say that 50 pw(10 p day) is do-able - not an outlandish number I...
  • #84,829
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:01am Apr 11, 2009 10:01am
Quoting SunTrader
It is the idea to be able do it week after week, month after month, year after year is somehow attainable.

It is only if your name is Bernie Madoff.
  • #84,830
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:10am Apr 11, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Sandhu
Hi Gator-

My bias is bullish for Sunday and AM NY session on Monday-may be we can go as high as 3300 before next NY close. In fact I have a long open with a very tight s/l about 50 pips at 3139. But I have good reason to see that where it is going in next few days. See my daily attached. I say as low as 1.2600 levels on account of very violent downward momentum. However, I do believe in taking profits "too soon", so at the very sign of my H4's showing me a sell move, I will go short for a t/p around 1.2850.

Happy trading next week.
keep in mind im a longer term trader.. i agree with what your said about current direction... how far up is speculative at best from either one of us. but as posted i dont expect much..e-zone should fill in this chapter sunday night monday morn for me (after easter).. but i do discount thurs and fri due to holiday/volume ect... on my my indicators ....mty bearish but decreasing.....wk mixed slightly bullish...daily super strong bearish but slighty weakening..4h slightly bearish 1hr bullish...these are an average of 13 time periods.. for instance 13 months... and so on.. but as stated i think the lower time frames are do to lower volume before long holiday weekend..nothing written in stone
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #84,831
  • Edited 10:56am Apr 11, 2009 10:34am | Edited 10:56am
sandhu thanks, I got your point..

basically the group of people and time and the charting system has a discontinuity (even weekend news)...
(including US institutional traders are off-work but japan guys are in, there could also be a built-in bias or gov policy guide difference)

as a result, the Friday close US price may not equal the asia monday(us sunday) open price.

sounds like for long term deals it's ok to hold through, but for short-term and less safety-margin deals better exit... that was what I did on Friday afternoon before close..

Quoting Sandhu
Hi-

I don't really know why gaps occur-though I can guess that they are a result of Fundamentals,Technical and I think more importantly, lack of liquidity.
But I have seen in last few months, the gaps have been occurring with a greater frequency on many pairs. I see Sunday opens as continuation of Friday closes (more often than not).

Gaps can stop you out, but you could also profit off them. For me it really depends on what my H4s are telling me near close of New York session on Fridays, if you decide to play this pls do be careful about...
  • #84,832
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:23pm Apr 11, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting SunTrader
20% ROI per month no matter how good a trader is not sustainable long term. Just so the term long term is understood I mean 5 years minimum.

But even then it is unrealistic since 20%/month return would double account every few months.

It has been said on dozens of posts by others that at that rate it wouldn't be long before the trader owned all the assets in the world/universe.
But there's always an exception.

John Arnold

Dallas native was raised by lawyer dad, accountant mom. Studied at Vanderbilt U., graduated in 3 years. Became oil trader for Enron 1995; said to have earned $750 million for company in 2001. Energy outfit famously collapsed a year later; went into business for himself. Today runs hedge fund Centaurus Energy, said to boast of 240% annualized returns since 2002. Big score last year buying up hedge fund Amaranth Advisors' losing positions in natural gas. Assets under management: $2 billion. Youngest member of The Forbes 400.
  • #84,833
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 11, 2009 12:27pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Sandhu
Hi-

I don't really know why gaps occur-though I can guess that they are a result of Fundamentals,Technical and I think more importantly, lack of liquidity.
But I have seen in last few months, the gaps have been occurring with a greater frequency on many pairs. I see Sunday opens as continuation of Friday closes (more often than not).
It is actually very simple. GAPS DON'T EXIST.
The only reason why you see a gap is because your broker is closed during the weekend. Oanda is open all weekend and never has a gap.
It is totally normal and logic that if price starts moving after the weekend and your broker is still closed that you will see a gap when your broker opens.
And the very nice thing about these so called "gaps" is that they always (99%) seem to close.
Every Sunday @ 3 PM Pacific Time I take a trade in the direction of the Friday close and I was never disappointed.
Study this, Back test it and you'll see that its a fairly safe bet.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #84,834
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:33pm Apr 11, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Its time for this sucker to go close the gap.
I'm losing my patience and I have to go to sleep. Its 12:43 AM here.
S/L @ 1.3755, T/P 1.3580
We'll see what I have in a couple of hours
oh...now there are no gaps
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #84,835
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:55pm Apr 11, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting djambazov84
oh...now there are no gaps
Banks do not stop trading currency over the weekend but your broker is closed and does not record the movement in the currency market during that period. When they open on Sunday/Monday depending on your location and your broker the currency price is updated. Sometimes there is a gap in price, sometimes not. Call it a freak or whatever you want, but price usually will return to 80% of the brokers closing Friday price if not all the way. Don't know why....but it happens. So in reality the gap does not exist.
  • #84,836
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:59pm Apr 11, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting KillerWhale
It is actually very simple. GAPS DON'T EXIST.
The only reason why you see a gap is because your broker is closed during the weekend. Oanda is open all weekend and never has a gap.
It is totally normal and logic that if price starts moving after the weekend and your broker is still closed that you will see a gap when your broker opens.
And the very nice thing about these so called "gaps" is that they always (99%) seem to close.
Every Sunday @ 3 PM Pacific Time I take a trade in the direction of the Friday...
Oanda is not open on the weekends and I actually do see a gap precisely because they are closed from Friday afternoon until Sunday afternoon.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #84,837
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:01pm Apr 11, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting djambazov84
oh...now there are no gaps
Bad djambazov84. It's not nice to state the obvious.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #84,838
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:04pm Apr 11, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
comments welcome.
I would say even 10% is in the long term not sustainable.
That same owner of a $20K account would have almost $2B (yes, Billion) in 10 years with 10% per month profits. (And your value per pip would be almost a million)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #84,839
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:08pm Apr 11, 2009 1:08pm
I need to add something else on the gap thing. There is a 24/7 forex outlet at one of the local malls. They will not tell you what the current price is on anything but local currency on weekends. I "guess" where EUR/USD is by the local currency/USD price and the Local currency/EUR price.
  • #84,840
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:09pm Apr 11, 2009 1:09pm
“People all over the world will have to purchase a new calendar within the next twelve months”




Quoting Jay Walker
Bad djambazov84. It's not nice to state the obvious.
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