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  • #84,801
  • Apr 10, 2009 7:58pm Apr 10, 2009 7:58pm
Quoting knuckledrag
I don't like trading Fridays anyway, so today wasn't a loss for me. Just wondering what you think of fib's and fib extensions working with pivots
They can work well together...sometimes.

Nothing magical about fibs accept when they work.

I kind of think the next level up looks good 61.8% retracement and what my pivots refer to as R2 mid which lines up with previous swing low (turned to resistance, perhaps?). Also Monday's daily pivot and the monthly pivot might be support on a pullback. But with Friday being a narrow range day I would be suprised if price doesn't go beyond either S3 or R3 overall levels.
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  • #84,802
  • Apr 10, 2009 8:33pm Apr 10, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I know,sorry, I have to find a different way to post this.
Maybe this works
Attached Image
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #84,803
  • Apr 10, 2009 9:00pm Apr 10, 2009 9:00pm
+ve divergence

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1239414739
  • #84,804
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:25pm Apr 10, 2009 11:25pm
Hi All,

Back after awhile and doing my bit to post my take on the price dynamics of EU. Last week PA is entering into a probable trend reversal altho its fell short of a few pips for a decisive t/r signal which will remain valid as long as 13330 level is capped. Prevailing PA is suggesting a technical pb to 13210/13250 level before heading south again. Lets see if I am correct...

For all those who need to be a better trader, you should and must FIRST ask yourself what do you need to have on your technical chart in order that you can trade confidently and profitably whether you want to be a scalper or s/m/l/t trader. The answer is and can only be found within yourself and not anywhere else. And even after acquiring all the resources and tools from here or anywhere else and knowing what is needed to be a better trader is by itself only the beginning which have to be further tested, refined and honed b4 anyone is ready to trade live. Its hard work, hard work and more hard work b4 you can see and enjoy any positive result. There is no one-size fits all trading methodology/plan/system which work for all becos every individual perceptions/actions react differently to different stimuli/methods/situations/conditions.
Nobody except you knows what work and what dont. BUT the basic tools/indicators must have the correct ability/quality for you not only to see the chart but also the ability to read and react accordingly to the price dynamics generated by your chart as forex PA is never static but moving and changing all the times. So make sure you have all the correct and appropriate indicators on your chart to not only tell you where the price is heading but it can also tells you whether its has reach its intended journey and heading for a new/different route so that you will know when to embark and disembark (entry/tp/sl). And no fanciful/complicated indicators/theory is required or necessary.
Most of us dont have a problem to know/see the general direction of the PA. BUT when and how to play the entry/tp/sl/flip levels in that context/direction is driving everybody up against the wall and beating ourselves silly besides the imminent depletion of our trading capitals.

I had travelled those roads and believe me, theres no short cut/diversion/cheat method to circumvent or bypass the whole learning process. You have to slog for it becos nobody ever stop learning each and everyday.

I am still learning as I post this message........
  • #84,805
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:34pm Apr 10, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting ak4x
Btw, Our daughter just got inducted into some highfalutin Honors Society thing for 4.o GPA things. I'd like to say she got it all from moi, but that would be....
Congratulations to your daughter. That is quite an accomplishment.
  • #84,806
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:05am Apr 11, 2009 1:05am
Since 99vt66 started a discussion for newer traders I would like to expand upon it. It should probably go into systems or another thread and can be moved there. I don't use time charts or use them only for reference. I don't like to tell others how to trade or what to trade. It's hard enough making decisions for myself.

I use tick charts. For those not familiar with tick charts they paint candles based upon the number or orders instead of time. MT4 platform is based on time charts and there are a few indicators that can be used to "predict" trend or changes in the trend.

One is a stochastic crossover. Using two stochastics one set at (2,1,5) and the other at (14,7,21) watch for the faster stoch to cross the slower. If both are on the high side when the cross occurs it tells you a short trend is coming and on the the bottom side tells you a long trend is coming. This works well on 4hr charts.

The other is an RSI set at 3 with levels at 80,60,40.20. If the RSI is below 20 go short and if above 80 go long. Any place in the middle is no mans land and trade at your own risk. It also works very well for divergence indicator. If RSI does not go below 40 the trend is up, not above 60 the trend is down.

If you use these indicators along with the THV systems pivots it might help to keep losses down and profits up.

Anyone wanting this post moved to another location or deleted just let me know.
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  • #84,807
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:29am Apr 11, 2009 1:29am
Ak, congratulations to you and your daughter for her induction.

Now, what about that gap eh?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #84,808
  • Apr 11, 2009 1:34am Apr 11, 2009 1:34am
https://www.thankyou.com/images/rewa...ogo%20high.jpg

And if you feel bored, you can find out more about Nancy Pelosi's bad date
Not all sins are created equal
  • #84,809
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:52am Apr 11, 2009 5:52am
Quoting ak4x
It's a lot like Clyde...

Btw, Our daughter just got inducted into some highfalutin Honors Society thing for 4.o GPA things. I'd like to say she got it all from moi, but that would be....
Congratulations
  • #84,810
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:02am Apr 11, 2009 6:02am
Quoting gammase1
Well, considering that 95% of retail traders fail, it would be safe for one to assume that the majority of traders in here do not average a 10 pip a day profit over a period of 5 years. Do you think that the users of Forex Factory somehow defy this failure rate, a case where the majority are profitable, perhaps?

My point was made with reference to your example, in that the majority of traders on here will not achieve a 25%p.a return on their capital over a five year period.


Hi again Gamma,

In fact, about 98% of traders posting on this forum...
Hi again Gamma,

Not sure I believe the 98% of traders fail statistic.

Where did that figure come from - how do you define a trader??

This was discussed on another thread recently and it seems that actually no-one really knows what the true figures are.

If someone opens an account with $500 and loses it all after a month - is that a failed trader or some gambler just trying his luck.

I do believe(call me naive if you will) that if you treat this as a business and you are really serious you can make a good return on your investment.

The 98% figure hinges on how you define a trader and I don't think anyone knows the true figure.

As you rightly point out there are some very good traders on this forum and I think they are making some serious money - I also think that there are 100's if not 1000's of traders who never even post - they just trade because they have it sorted.

P.S. I would also like to draw your attention to someone on this site who I have great respect for and who claims to be making a good living out of trading(or am I being naive again). He claims to be achieving 20% return - not p.a. but per week and I believe that this is entirely possible.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7093
  • #84,811
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:19am Apr 11, 2009 6:19am
Quoting KillerWhale
Maybe this works
try saving as a .png file
Attached Image
  • #84,812
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:06am Apr 11, 2009 9:06am
20% ROI per month no matter how good a trader is not sustainable long term. Just so the term long term is understood I mean 5 years minimum.

But even then it is unrealistic since 20%/month return would double account every few months.

It has been said on dozens of posts by others that at that rate it wouldn't be long before the trader owned all the assets in the world/universe.
  • #84,813
  • Edited 9:45am Apr 11, 2009 9:17am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting SunTrader
20% ROI per month no matter how good a trader is not sustainable long term. Just so the term long term is understood I mean 5 years minimum.

But even then it is unrealistic since 20%/month return would double account every few months.

It has been said on dozens of posts by others that at that rate it wouldn't be long before the trader owned all the assets in the world/universe.
I think the post above claims 20% per week.
i.e. (1+20%)^50=9100 times after a year.... he would soon own the broker. maybe that's why he using mbt?

I'm thinking how much would it cost mbt to hire such a person and just trade against bucketshops.
since before long there will be no other broker out there as competition... because the person owns all rest market maker brokers. >_<
then this person must be busy all day cracking down one market maker after another and have no time to post on forum... what a genious we have lost then.
  • #84,814
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:31am Apr 11, 2009 9:31am
Quoting SunTrader
20% ROI per month no matter how good a trader is not sustainable long term. Just so the term long term is understood I mean 5 years minimum.

But even then it is unrealistic since 20%/month return would double account every few months.

It has been said on dozens of posts by others that at that rate it wouldn't be long before the trader owned all the assets in the world/universe.
The same unsustainable consistency is there at any % when you factor in compounding. The goal for me is to attain a consistent return on a static account size. Now if you know anyone with an extra 2 or 3 hundred million laying around--- I figure 8 to 10 percent on that a year should do.
Btw your right about the 61.8 retrace, under normal trading circumstances I like looking for the end of retraces at 50 and 61.8 correlated with S&R sometimes I'm right
  • #84,815
  • Apr 11, 2009 9:45am Apr 11, 2009 9:45am
Did Europe not get the memo about Friday being the Easter day off. Is Monday therefore going to be another snoozer trading day?
  • #84,816
  • Edited 10:03am Apr 11, 2009 9:48am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting SunTrader
Did Europe not get the memo about Friday being the Easter day off. Is Monday therefore going to be another snoozer trading day?
also want to know this...in addition to if europe works for forex
when is dow futures trading start for monday? friday it was closed

thanks
  • #84,817
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:09am Apr 11, 2009 10:09am
most know my bias on 2871 and beyond..will it happen? hmmm maybe.. will it be a straight line? no! will we pullback at times? yes.. will meteor hit north america and change my bias? no! if meteor hits north america ill be dead so bias will remain.. can other world events change my mind sure... its forex.. proven wrong changes mind and thoughts..if you cant role with the punches your soon to be an X forex trader. i can see it retracing to 3207 or 3243... and even possibly on a chinese leader talking out of turn or geitener 3500/35. these numbers arent pulled out of ass.. there reasons for them. beyond that its not so simple..im trying to get back to simple so as a simple minded person such as myself can grasp it.. chart up chart down... wax on wax off... dont make things constipated..you could learn a lot from a dummie... you can learn a lot from a failed trade.dont get pissed off and just move on when starting to learn to trade. figure out why you failed. did you listen to someone with doubt? did you ignore someones well meaning advise? or whatever study the failed trade using a diary.. keep a diary on why you entered your thoughts and reasons.. why or not did you continue more thoughts and reasons.. and the outcome more thoughts and reasons...

where its sitting 3188 was a bump in previous post.. if it gaps up or down who knows till it happens.. i personally think even with the slight bullish bias now .. it will gap down then continue lower... ill go look for previous s/r post and repost..

happy easter
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #84,818
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:23am Apr 11, 2009 10:23am
Quoting gatorinla
points of interest 3186 17/18 3068 38 2989 62 28 2871

added later 2841 26 07 2758 any lower then this ill post later after drunk hangover..
sorry i said 3188 last post it was 3186 shoot me.. all numbers are usaully within a few pips rarely 10 spread.. dont let a few pips keep you in or out a trade trying to make my numbers..there areas..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #84,819
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:29am Apr 11, 2009 10:29am
Hi Gator-

My bias is bullish for Sunday and AM NY session on Monday-may be we can go as high as 3300 before next NY close. In fact I have a long open with a very tight s/l about 50 pips at 3139. But I have good reason to see that where it is going in next few days. See my daily attached. I say as low as 1.2600 levels on account of very violent downward momentum. However, I do believe in taking profits "too soon", so at the very sign of my H4's showing me a sell move, I will go short for a t/p around 1.2850.

Happy trading next week.

Quoting gatorinla
most know my bias on 2871 and beyond..will it happen? hmmm maybe.. will it be a straight line? no! will we pullback at times? yes.. will meteor hit north america and change my bias? no! if meteor hits north america ill be dead so bias will remain.. can other world events change my mind sure... its forex.. proven wrong changes mind and thoughts..if you cant role with the punches your soon to be an X forex trader. i can see it retracing to 3207 or 3243... and even possibly on a chinese leader talking out of turn or geitener 3500/35. these numbers...
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  • #84,820
  • Apr 11, 2009 10:46am Apr 11, 2009 10:46am
hi sandhu:
one question, why we usually see a jump off in asia monday (us sunday) open price VS us Friday afternoon close price? known as a GAP?

I closed my position before Friday close to avoid seeing a gap...

Quoting Sandhu
Hi Gator-

In fact I have a long open with a very tight s/l about 50 pips at 3139.
Happy trading next week.
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