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  • #10,701
  • Apr 9, 2009 5:24pm Apr 9, 2009 5:24pm
See if we can get the ball rolling again here....

Pretty textbook move. This high is jutting out all on its own here.

If it hits tonight or tomorrow I'm not interested....holiday weekend.....but that's unlikely.
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  • #10,702
  • Apr 9, 2009 6:27pm Apr 9, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting sam0182
Guys,

I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?

The USD/CHF's daily looks like quite a bit of chop to me and the level selected was not necessarily backed by any solid past or present S&R. However, it was a spike high that sold off and I would have expected to see some reaction from this point....
I am just gonna take a shot in the dark. Was there any news today that could of influenced this pair more then the others? Some not so important fundie news that had greater than usual impact?

At any point was the S/R you have also support further back or was it just the Resistance for the one hit(I know on the left side it looks like it was used as both... sort of.)? Perhaps that was the problem... price action was just too strong and not enough people commited to placing orders there.

  • #10,703
  • Apr 9, 2009 7:43pm Apr 9, 2009 7:43pm
Quoting sam0182
No, no indicators? I'm not understanding what lagging indicators have to do this thread much less why price failed to react to a previous sell point.

I'll conclude that there was poor and/or lack of tested weekly/daily/4hr S&R and the trade should not have been taken based solely on a previous spike high.

[color=black]Further input is appreciated and thanks for pitching in Trader69 but I don't see how it's relevant....
well, indicators may lag but when i see angle and separation on the daily macd as it is pointing towards the water line (up), that is giving me a good indication of future price. i also use a tunnel ea that projects future price via fibonacci, meaning price points (targets) change along with price action on a 1 hr timetable. also, it is making a very nice "w" on daily chart as well. in my opinion, tech trading is all about pattern recognition, and i use the indicators to help me do just that, recognize the pattern. i keep it very simple, macd, rsi, and a couple of moving averages.

i also look at fundamentals. the chf was a safe haven play/ risk aversion trade for quite a while. the dollar is back in vogue, people are coming back into the market, and i would be buying dips on the usd/chf if you are gonna trade it. use low leverage and small lot size. i do this with usdjpy and average 50-100 pips per day consistently. (smaller spread and less margin required)
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #10,704
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:20pm Apr 9, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting sam0182
Guys,
I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?
This is what I see when I look at this chart. It just jumps righ out at me. Many would not back away from your trade because of this however. But for me, the Gartley that might materialize would be a much higher probability trade so I would probably wait for it.

I sure would be watching the price action as it approached the 50% retracement level though. And if it did react and fall away, I would be looking for a retest and would probably take a short on the 79% as it retested, which would give me a very low risk trade with close stops. Note that price sort of plowed through and then held above, so my approach would have not materialized.

One more thing: Some people treat a parabolic move such as the drop from 1.1800 to 1.1150 as a gap and expect it to be filled. That in itself might keep some people out of the trade.

SR
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  • #10,705
  • Apr 10, 2009 1:52am Apr 10, 2009 1:52am
Quoting Concept
I am just gonna take a shot in the dark. Was there any news today that could of influenced this pair more then the others? Some not so important fundie news that had greater than usual impact?

At any point was the S/R you have also support further back or was it just the Resistance for the one hit(I know on the left side it looks like it was used as both... sort of.)? Perhaps that was the problem... price action was just too strong and not enough people commited to placing orders there.

....also, take a step back and look at the higher lows being made on the 4 hr (end of march and beginning of april). No real news though....just some basic trend continuation squeezing out before the holiday weekend.

Going to be pretty quiet tonight. No trading! (oh what do we do)
  • #10,706
  • Apr 10, 2009 2:32am Apr 10, 2009 2:32am
Hey, Hey Billy Ray

Long time no hear, but hope that things are bright on your side of the pond.



My 2cent:

There's a pretty neat H&S pattern on the 1 hour
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Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #10,707
  • Apr 10, 2009 2:50am Apr 10, 2009 2:50am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Hey, Hey Billy Ray

Long time no hear, but hope that things are bright on your side of the pond.



My 2cent:

There's a pretty neat H&S pattern on the 1 hour
Hey old timer! So what you just jump in after a year or 2?
  • #10,708
  • Apr 10, 2009 3:42am Apr 10, 2009 3:42am
What about 1.3075 on Euro ? Right below that, we have 1.3052 as a Monthly Fibonacci support.
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  • #10,709
  • Apr 10, 2009 10:22am Apr 10, 2009 10:22am
Quoting Khalys
What about 1.3075 on Euro ? Right below that, we have 1.3052 as a Monthly Fibonacci support.
That looks like a no brainer to me.
  • #10,710
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:39am Apr 10, 2009 11:39am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hey old timer! So what you just jump in after a year or 2?

Haha, no, I was always there, just a bit busier in the last few months with my other job.

Good to see you back here though.
Great idea with the twitter.
Am going to sign up after trying to get my head around it.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #10,711
  • Edited 8:03am Apr 13, 2009 7:52am | Edited 8:03am
1.33-1.3335 are my short levels EUR/USD.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...usdapril13.jpg
  • #10,712
  • Apr 13, 2009 8:03am Apr 13, 2009 8:03am
Quoting sam0182
1.33-1.3335 are my short levels EUR/USD.
What time frame are you looking at? I got a 4hr open and have the 50% fib sitting almost right on top of that level (although I did have my S/R Line a little lower than yours).
  • #10,713
  • Apr 13, 2009 8:57am Apr 13, 2009 8:57am
Quoting Concept
What time frame are you looking at? I got a 4hr open and have the 50% fib sitting almost right on top of that level (although I did have my S/R Line a little lower than yours).
4hr. Yep, 50% should come in right about 1.3335, I believe.

Generally, I'll start to scale in a little before my exact price point to pick-up on that entire range of resistance.
  • #10,714
  • Apr 13, 2009 10:26am Apr 13, 2009 10:26am
[quote=sam0182;2665663]4hr. Yep, 50% should come in right about 1.3335, I believe.

Whoops, wrong forum

I'm hopping back in here w/EUR/USD shorts
  • #10,715
  • Apr 13, 2009 11:34am Apr 13, 2009 11:34am
Anyone watching AUD/USD?

It's right around that .7275 previous high?
  • #10,716
  • Apr 13, 2009 12:49pm Apr 13, 2009 12:49pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Looking at buys: 4776 - 4762. Res now support with trend.
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #10,717
  • Apr 13, 2009 12:57pm Apr 13, 2009 12:57pm
Did you guys take those EURUSD shorts?

It approached with a ton of momentum, typically with such wide spread bars breaking out of narrow ranges, fading can be a dangerous move.

If it doesn't reverse now, I'll be looking at 1.3400/50/1.3500, based on daily/4H charts. It's approaching a trendline on the daily charts from March 23 - April 5 that I think, depending on the reaction, will indicate where we may be moving for the 2nd half of April.

Haven't posted much here lately, hope to be more active, will put some charts up later.
  • #10,718
  • Apr 13, 2009 1:03pm Apr 13, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting smittens4212
Did you guys take those EURUSD shorts?

It approached with a ton of momentum, typically with such wide spread bars breaking out of narrow ranges, fading can be a dangerous move.

If it doesn't reverse now, I'll be looking at 1.3400/50/1.3500, based on daily/4H charts. It's approaching a trendline on the daily charts from March 23 - April 5 that I think, depending on the reaction, will indicate where we may be moving for the 2nd half of April.

Haven't posted much here lately, hope to be more active, will put some charts up later.
I got in with a 1/4 position on the first run to 1.3310ish and closed. Got in again with small positions @ 1.3335 and am holding, looking to add 1.34-1.3415. Small scaled positions.
  • #10,719
  • Apr 13, 2009 1:52pm Apr 13, 2009 1:52pm
The 1.3400 level is near a fibo extension, 123.6 level, too.
  • #10,720
  • Apr 13, 2009 2:07pm Apr 13, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting smittens4212
The 1.3400 level is near a fibo extension, 123.6 level, too.
Yeah. I like the bigger picture on the EUR/USD, big descending triangle. Adding shorts at 1.34-1.3415 (S&R + Fibs) looking for a reaction with the overall trend is my idea.
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