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  • #10,681
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:10am Apr 9, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Khalys
I don't get it... Markets are bullish, but the Dollar is still going up against Euro and Swissy.
Trade what you see mate
  • #10,682
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:22am Apr 9, 2009 10:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
It can be tricky. The best breakouts occur when price is not already tremendously oversold or overbought. Like this morning, we got a massive fade off of the highs there and it came racing down, false breakout, whaaa. But if it's creeping and crawling, hits the level, fades just a little bit, and jumps back up, those are usually the best. Its fighting now but I was overall non directional going into the day, playing in the move of PA.
Hi BRV

This is something I have noticed too. If price is trending slowly so a point of major S or R, it tends to move right through it (maybe with a minor bounce). If price is approaching a line of S or R and then suddenly shoots up fast to the point it is almost always the end of the move.
From VSA principles it denotes that its a selling or buying climax (usually with high volume and the bar closes near but preferably not at the top). When I see this I know its time to take profits.

Something I watch out for.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #10,683
  • Apr 9, 2009 11:05am Apr 9, 2009 11:05am
Quoting Khalys
I don't get it... Markets are bullish, but the Dollar is still going up against Euro and Swissy.
On Oanda FXNews they have an article with this title:
"EUR/USD: Pre-Weekend Profit-Taking or USD-Buying on Good Data?"

I'm not sure if I can post the article for it might be copyrighted, but bottom line is that THEY DON'T HAVE A CLUE.

So u better follow Sherminator's advise: just trade what you see mate
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #10,684
  • Apr 9, 2009 11:10am Apr 9, 2009 11:10am
I read that article on IFR. I think the basic premise is that the market is unwilling to commit to risk assets over the holiday period, fueling USD buying. Markets often reverse the recent trend before holiday periods.
  • #10,685
  • Apr 9, 2009 11:19am Apr 9, 2009 11:19am
Quoting orcus
If anyone's following BRV's Twitter, he called 1.3155 for E/U and expected a tight bounce. Sure enough, the bounce came at 3146.

I can't for the life of me figure out where that line came from. I would have said 3170 (basically RC's 3165) or maybe 3125. I just don't see anything that screams 3155, in fact the only thing noticeable at all really is the small bit of consolidation around Mar 18; nor do I see any historical significance, fibs, or trendline confirmation (well, you do get a 76 fib if you start it at the little down spike on 3/18 7:00...
Hey Orcus,
What is BRV's Twitter name or maybe you have a link.

Thanks MG
  • #10,686
  • Apr 9, 2009 11:21am Apr 9, 2009 11:21am
Quoting Ferrari
I read that article on IFR. I think the basic premise is that the market is unwilling to commit to risk assets over the holiday period, fueling USD buying.
and the low liquity makes the move bigger

yeah that might be a viable explanation
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #10,687
  • Apr 9, 2009 11:21am Apr 9, 2009 11:21am
https://twitter.com/nobrainertrades
  • #10,688
  • Apr 9, 2009 12:14pm Apr 9, 2009 12:14pm
Just took 20 pips very heavy and letting a little piece run because of the current market conditions...up over 100 pipstoday easy trading later guys...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,689
  • Apr 9, 2009 1:24pm Apr 9, 2009 1:24pm
Hey everyone, what levels have you got your eyes on for the next few days?
  • #10,690
  • Apr 9, 2009 1:47pm Apr 9, 2009 1:47pm
Guys,

I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?

The USD/CHF's daily looks like quite a bit of chop to me and the level selected was not necessarily backed by any solid past or present S&R. However, it was a spike high that sold off and I would have expected to see some reaction from this point. Instead, price shot right through with as little of a 5 pip hesitation at the line. And it's not like price was just running stops & moving 15-25 points past...it full on blew the line.

I didn't take this trade but would have been all over it if I had seen it in time. Equities are way up, USD "should" be down (though I think we pointed out a lack of correlation earlier today)...and we have this recent spike high.

Thoughts? Anyone please, tell me what you think.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...Forex/uchf.jpg
  • #10,691
  • Apr 9, 2009 2:15pm Apr 9, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting sam0182
Guys,

I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?

The USD/CHF's daily looks like quite a bit of chop to me and the level selected was not necessarily backed by any solid past or present S&R. However, it was a spike high that sold off and I would have expected to see some reaction from this point. Instead, price shot right through with as little of a 5 pip hesitation at the line. And it's not like price was just running stops & moving 15-25 points past...it full on blew the line.

I...

Hey, If you stick a volume indi at the bottom, you will see that the volume on the bar that pushed through the resistance level is relatively high for this time of day...this represented buying pressure...simply, more demand than supply...
  • #10,692
  • Apr 9, 2009 2:20pm Apr 9, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting emios
Hey, If you stick a volume indi at the bottom, you will see that the volume on the bar that pushed through the resistance level is relatively high for this time of day...this represented buying pressure...simply, more demand than supply...
Thanks for the input but I need something more than this. If I put a volume indicator on every one of my charts and made that one more factor in deciding what and what not to trade, I would end only more confused and less decisive.

I'm OK with being wrong but if possible, I want to understand why. Strong buying power is understandable but...there has got to be something else.

I understand that it's not the strongest of levels but I would have expected at least a 20 point reaction. This was a weely high, daily high, etc...

Thanks again for your input Emois, not discounting you, just looking for addition cues.
  • #10,693
  • Apr 9, 2009 2:40pm Apr 9, 2009 2:40pm
I would have went long on it twice...
  • #10,694
  • Apr 9, 2009 2:55pm Apr 9, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting sam0182
...just looking for addition cues.
Maybe because Euro had not reached it's major turning point yet...
  • #10,695
  • Apr 9, 2009 3:14pm Apr 9, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting sam0182
Guys,

I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?

The USD/CHF's daily looks like quite a bit of chop to me and the level selected was not necessarily backed by any solid past or present S&R. However, it was a spike high that sold off and I would have expected to see some reaction from this point....
what, no macd or rsi? daily macd is telling me that usdchf is going up.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #10,696
  • Apr 9, 2009 3:21pm Apr 9, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting trader69
what, no macd or rsi? daily macd is telling me that usdchf is going up.


No, no indicators? I'm not understanding what lagging indicators have to do this thread much less why price failed to react to a previous sell point.

I'll conclude that there was poor and/or lack of tested weekly/daily/4hr S&R and the trade should not have been taken based solely on a previous spike high.

Further input is appreciated and thanks for pitching in Trader69 but I don't see how it's relevant. <<I'm shaking a little in my boots with this closing statement, as I follow and respect your posts in the EUR/USD thread...no offense intended, just trying get understand yet stay focused. Thanks again
  • #10,697
  • Apr 9, 2009 3:27pm Apr 9, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting Khalys
Maybe because Euro had not reached it's major turning point yet...


This seems to be a probable issue and something I didn't look at before...EUR/USD was still on it's way down to it's 1.31 support range by the time USD/CHF had nailed my expected 1.155 reversal point, allowing price to run through a further 50 points until the EUR had indeed found support and the subsequent bounce.

Good point, thanks Khalys.
  • #10,698
  • Apr 9, 2009 4:03pm Apr 9, 2009 4:03pm
It just wont stop lol...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,699
  • Apr 9, 2009 4:10pm Apr 9, 2009 4:10pm
Quote
I'm trying to get some feedback on the attached USD/CHF chart and WHY you wouldn't have taken the trade?

Personally I wouldn't have just because momentum looked too strong moving up to the line. Others here have said they like seeing that momentum, but in my records 90% of the time it looks like that, it blows right through. BRV mentioned in his latest video that he likes to see price "creeping and crawling" up to the SR to expect a bounce.
  • #10,700
  • Apr 9, 2009 4:18pm Apr 9, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting orcus
Personally I wouldn't have just because momentum looked too strong moving up to the line. Others here have said they like seeing that momentum, but in my records 90% of the time it looks like that, it blows right through. BRV mentioned in his latest video that he likes to see price "creeping and crawling" up to the SR to expect a bounce.
Another good point, thanks Orcus.
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