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NFP System - Backtest data provided

  • #141
  • Edited Apr 11, 2007 8:22pm Apr 7, 2007 1:08pm | Edited Apr 11, 2007 8:22pm
Here is a USDX indicator.

As shown it is very close to to usdx close on NYBOT


It tries to calculate value for all existing currencies. If currency is missing value will be skewed. Value also can be skewed on some bars where not all historical data is present.
I tried to adjust it to interbank fx mini names, but not sure if it will work, need exact server name as it appears in AccountCompany().
  • #142
  • Apr 7, 2007 1:49pm Apr 7, 2007 1:49pm
Hi Irusoh,

many thanks for posting the indicator !


In regards to the many USD indicators available - in general it's simple, as with all technical analysis; it's a prediction/assumption how humans behave - the more trading humans regard one specific indiacator, the better it will work !
In this sense, have a nice easter time !

PP

Quoting irusoh
Here is a USDX indicator.

As shown it is very close to to usdx close on NYBOT


It tries to calculate value for all existing currencies. If currency is missing value will be skewed. Value also can be skewed on some bars where not all historical data is present.
I tried to adjust it to interbank fx mini names, but not sure if it will work, need exact server name as it appears in AccountCompany().
  • #143
  • Apr 7, 2007 4:15pm Apr 7, 2007 4:15pm
Hello all! Sorry, I've been extremely busy these past couple of days. Let me get down to it and answer some of your questions:

1. The holiday, if it changes the times that the markets open, would odviously have an effect on the time that we drew our box. The reason for drawing the box the way that I did was to get the absolute high and low over the weekend, from when the report came out to the following Monday, to allow the pair to cool and decide on a direction, and catch the beginnings of a trend that may be created by the NFP. It hasn't been backtested because I've never run into the problem previously, but if the market was closed on Monday and re-opened the following Tuesday, then I would say use Tuesday at midnight instead of Monday. Same primace, but the pair gets an extra day to rest

2. JayJay, screenshots look good to me

3. radrats, a few of the people in the thread already have their indicator set to histogram. I'm not sure if they've made how they did it public on the thread or not, but if it hasn't, could somebody please post how it was done? Or accept PMs on the subject maybe?

Thanks bubo for your post about changing the weights; I was thinking of posting the same thing until I got down to your thread. And you basically took the words from my mouth explaining the use of different indexes with different systems/time frames. And to irusoh too for the indicator. I've added all of the newcomers to the signal list. The next PDF update is Monday after midnight, outlining what the box should look like at that point, and where we will be taking our trades. You can still PM me about adding you to the mailing list, I'm taking requests for it all month.

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
  • #144
  • Apr 7, 2007 5:41pm Apr 7, 2007 5:41pm
That's funny. I noticed that, too, but figured there's too much momentum now for "sentinal" to change it to it's correct spelling.

Quoting santoericco
Kevin_E and all other wonderful people working on this "Sentinel Index"


Based in Italy I know that Latin has influenced many modern languages.
Maybe your term "Sentinal" could be written more properly "Sentinel".

This could be my contribution to this general effort about "SENTINEL INDEX".

Regards,

Giuseppe




  • #145
  • Apr 8, 2007 11:24am Apr 8, 2007 11:24am
Hi Guys,

I started yesterday going through the whole post, so far so good. When I downloaded the indexes, non of them show me anything in the indicator window; (except for the name, of course). Nevertheless the USDX does print normally.

I tried increasing the no. of bars in the Tools > Charts> etc.,I then tried removing the NZD which my charting doesn't have, I tried the IBfx version, but nothing helped.

However when at first I downloaded the first Sentinel it did show the histogram plus MA but then disappeared when moving time frame and disappeared for good.

Sorry to be a pain in the neck, but I'm completely confused, even tho' I supppose it's something under my nose.

I'll be very grateful for some help!!

herty
  • #146
  • Apr 8, 2007 12:35pm Apr 8, 2007 12:35pm
Hi Merlin,

its sad to see such a great thread being put in the recycling bin. Anyways can I ask something... Is it not allowed to use the FF forum to build a commercial system? Im just asking because I was thinking of doing that myself... to build a commercial EA in the forum, similar to how PipBoxer was developed and now sold. Also I see other systems such as vegas being sold... So my question is how should I go about building a commercial system in the FF forum?

Regards,
Mikhail
  • #147
  • Apr 8, 2007 3:40pm Apr 8, 2007 3:40pm
no its not allowed, have you read rule 3?

we only allow commercial stuff on the forum in special circumstances. and honesty is the key to the whole thing. pipboxer, for instance, came to me with his proposal and we allowed him to have a subforum, and we are including him in a new program launching soon. vegas never even promoted his stuff here, it was diallist, who is a moderator, who suggested we create that sub forum.

let me say that i love EA programmers. i am a programmer myself and love the coder mentality. there is some value in selling an EA, because it can help others develop their own system and to see how a good system is constructed. easily worth the 199 or whatever its being sold for. and programmers-for-hire, these guys are great and i encourage more developers to get into this. BUT there is a BIG BIG DIFFERENCE in selling an EA and selling signals. signals are a scam, no matter how you slice it, there is just no value there. i didnt always feel that way, but after the past two years on this fourm i am convinced that no one benifits from signal services except the signal seller.
Relax and be happy.
  • #148
  • Apr 8, 2007 10:42pm Apr 8, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting Kevin_E
hiksweeper,

Good eye..almost All of the following is looking at the GBP/USD pair. With that in mind...

Last month would have been good for this system...breakeven on initial trade (up 50 pips, or 45 if you count spread), then you have your first re-entry at 3/16/2007 at 13:30, because the price on 3/2/2007 at 13:30 (2 weeks prior..just so happens to be the previous' 2 weeks high as well) is below the close of the candle on 3/16/2007 at 13:30. Notice we didn't take the trade when the candles broke the high. They broke it a few times, but the 13:30 candle was the first to close above.

That trade would have been good for 130 pips aprox. (close on other side of 336 SMA and exit on 3/28/2007 at 17:30). So for last month, we would have had about 170 after spread. There is one more re-entry at 4/2/2007 at 09:00. This closes above the high of the last 2 weeks, established on 3/22/2007 at 10:30. As of now, we've hit our 50 pip breakeven point, so tack another 45 onto the total pips, and what do you know? We get our average...215 pips a month That is, of course, purely coincidental lol. I probably would have not taken that last trade. The Sentinal number, if you bother charting it outside of the MetaTrader platform, has created some unique patterns. Its having a hard time pushing above this current level of resistance, but it just punched above it when the last trade was triggered. That's too close for me. Also, you'll notice that on 3/26, the Sentinal number punched below the SMA, and again (even lower this time) mid day on 3/29, and the patterns lead me to believe we're consolidating and going to be picking a direction. A major move that late in the month? I wouldn't have bet on it, so I would have kept my 170 for the month.

Anyways, there's my quick rundown of last month

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
Can anyone who is still interested in this system guide me through this old post of Kevin's? I'm having trouble following his monthly breakdown of March. I'm drawing my box from 8:30 EST to 00:00 EST Monday (the NFP for March was on the 9th) but still not seeing his trades and especially the re-entries. Can someone post a chart for me? Maybe I missed this in reading the thread twice but for the re-entries, you use the previous 2 weeks high/low after the NFP Box? Just a little unclear. Thanks! This system still has so much promise!
  • #149
  • Apr 9, 2007 8:57am Apr 9, 2007 8:57am
Kev, do you ever lock in any profit alog the way or wait until the first TP is hit then lock in BE on the second lot?
  • #150
  • Edited Apr 11, 2007 8:22pm Apr 9, 2007 11:38am | Edited Apr 11, 2007 8:22pm
this is my nfp box. i be glad to know if the box is accurate according to the rules.
  • #151
  • Apr 9, 2007 2:19pm Apr 9, 2007 2:19pm
bftl that box looks good to me I have high of 1.9687 and low of 1.9636.
Not a monster move by NFP standards.
  • #152
  • Apr 10, 2007 8:45am Apr 10, 2007 8:45am
Where is everyone?

So should we have looked long on the opposite side of the NFP box?
  • #153
  • Edited 10:35pm Apr 10, 2007 10:00pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting droesparky
Where is everyone?

So should we have looked long on the opposite side of the NFP box?
In Kevin's rules it is a close above two weeks high for long trade and backed up by Sentina(e)l and EMA:

quote: " Re-entries can be taken only if the price has closed above or below the current and previous week's high/low respectively, and the indicators (Sentinal number nad 336 SMA) support it"
  • #154
  • Apr 11, 2007 4:49pm Apr 11, 2007 4:49pm
has anybody managed to address the issue of the sentinal indicator not working?
Its gonna happen, it will happen.....i know!
  • #155
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:09pm Apr 11, 2007 6:09pm
yeah thats wat im saying. the indicator is not working in mt
Contact me for Custom Indicators/EAs.
  • #156
  • Apr 11, 2007 8:26pm Apr 11, 2007 8:26pm
i have deleted my post regarding the signal service by Kevin. we had a long talk and worked out the misunderstanding. this thread is being moved back to systems forum. sorry for the hassle guys!
Relax and be happy.
  • #157
  • Apr 12, 2007 10:11am Apr 12, 2007 10:11am
I am interested in learning more, but can't seem to find the original "text" file explaining the system?
  • #158
  • Apr 12, 2007 10:38am Apr 12, 2007 10:38am
Quoting robclay
I am interested in learning more, but can't seem to find the original "text" file explaining the system?

All of the attachments are in the first post. Please look there.

Thanks
  • #159
  • Apr 12, 2007 1:40pm Apr 12, 2007 1:40pm
Quoting smjones
All of the attachments are in the first post. Please look there.

Thanks
They are... strange... maybe I was just too tired earlier! Thanks!
  • #160
  • Apr 12, 2007 1:44pm Apr 12, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting robclay
They are... strange... maybe I was just too tired earlier! Thanks!
Naw, I just put them back. there was a screwup and they accidentaly were deleted...
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