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  • #84,241
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:09pm Apr 8, 2009 1:09pm
looks like it won't hit my target today. entered near channel breakout with 10 pip stop could have had 10:1 risk reward but got away with 8:1 yipee
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #84,242
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:14pm Apr 8, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting eaglestar
looks like it won't hit my target today. entered near channel breakout with 10 pip stop could have had 10:1 risk reward but got away with 8:1 yipee
You may like to double it up with 4:1 in opposite direction. Don't follow my advise if you have no opinion of your own.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #84,243
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:16pm Apr 8, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting eaglestar
looks like it won't hit my target today. entered near channel breakout with 10 pip stop could have had 10:1 risk reward but got away with 8:1 yipee
Here's the EW count.
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  • #84,244
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:18pm Apr 8, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting eaglestar
looks like it won't hit my target today. entered near channel breakout with 10 pip stop could have had 10:1 risk reward but got away with 8:1 yipee
multiple line, what you see on chart

morning chart, wave analysis
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  • #84,245
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:18pm Apr 8, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting Chicky
Hi Bablo, Thanks for your concern and advice which is highly appreciatable. I just want to know if you mean we are at the top in expressing our bias or the PA is at the top and you expect it to go south?
"We are at the Top" of the PA is what I'm hearing on this thread.

Although this may the top of a short term up move the charts are telling me to sit on my hands. It tipically takes from 1 to 2 hours after a news event for the real direction to present itself.

At the moment I seeing North movement in the medium term. Big money seems to come into play at 1.3214 for the moment.

The action is almost reflective of big money taking long positions from 1.3214 to 1.3275 and then waiting for the price to fall back and start the loading process all over.

Only time will tell what is to come but for now I'm waiting on the sidelines.
  • #84,246
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:26pm Apr 8, 2009 1:26pm
last chance for this to form into an inverted h&s. The right shoulder should not exceed 1.3235 to the downside by too much and close at or above that value on the hourly chart.

Moment of truth

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #84,247
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:30pm Apr 8, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting derek
multiple line, what you see on chart

morning chart, wave analysis
WOW, it's pretty impressive how you made that call. You only "missed it" by 0,00006.

It's starting to look like a nice H&S pattern forming on your 1 hour chart.

Doh! I didn't mean to do that.
  • #84,248
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:34pm Apr 8, 2009 1:34pm
EU H4 Chart: Possible target S&R area.....
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  • #84,249
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:37pm Apr 8, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting psiholog
last chance for this to form into an inverted h&s. The right shoulder should not exceed 1.3235 to the downside by too much and close at or above that value on the hourly chart.

Moment of truth

Attachment
is there a H&S on 4hr?
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  • #84,250
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:41pm Apr 8, 2009 1:41pm
Gotta love having some fun with the EU today. Long this morning at 3210 and out at 3305. Short at 3296 and out at 3241.

Now I'm sidelines to see if this daily pin forms up purty...lol If it does, riding it back up.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #84,251
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:45pm Apr 8, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting akirax
is there a H&S on 4hr?
I dont really follow patterns on the larger timeframes these days because pay is too volatile since July/August of last year so I refuse to answer that question with a yes or a no. Best example is the potential W on the daily that everyone was talking about just a few weeks ago. Now...its been forgotten already.

Instead on the larger timeframes I look for strong support/resistance levels and how pa behaves around those areas in the "short" term...patterns that emerge on the 15min/1h charts.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #84,252
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:49pm Apr 8, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting billye
oh, 2pm EST is a Fed talk? what did he say? do what is planned?
FOMC Minutes attached. Nothing better than to read for yourself.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf fomcminutes20090318[1].pdf   265 KB | 375 downloads
  • #84,253
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:55pm Apr 8, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting akirax
is there a H&S on 4hr?

It is possible, but for I would like to see the right shoulder develop more symmetry with the left shoulder.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #84,254
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:02pm Apr 8, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting bablo
FOMC Minutes attached. Nothing better than to read for yourself.
thanks, I went to fed webpage and finished reading just now...
  • #84,255
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:06pm Apr 8, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting psiholog
last chance for this to form into an inverted h&s. The right shoulder should not exceed 1.3235 to the downside by too much and close at or above that value on the hourly chart.

Moment of truth

Attachment
pa closed on the hourly just below that 1.3235 value by only a few pips on my platform. So far it looks like it is a failed attempt however I'm not throwing the idea out just yet.

Instead I am looking at the most recent downtrend that developed since the high at 1.33xx. Pa for now is contained within the channel walls and I am waiting for the upper wall to be reached...see when and where that will be in comparison to that potential inverted h&s

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #84,256
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:19pm Apr 8, 2009 2:19pm
Pretty much 'classic" pivot action... except for the timing of the runs. That part was a little Odd and surely due to something, but I don't know what or even care. This current market is turning abnormal into normal, and there's a clue there for all of us as well, if want to stick a'rd in this Biz...

I expected the run to the DP back a'rd the start of yesterdays session with a drop to follow ((when I posted the countertrend Long trade)), and instead it Dove 120 pips down all the way to M1 for cryin out loud, then it gets a Wild Hair and races 150 pips back up for the DP only to collapse 80 pips back to ar'd the 1h 21sma and xx20 pysch level/QP convergence for that zone. Got the primary targets right, but the order was BassAckwards.

For reference... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83946

The current and subsequent drop from the DP in what is essentially a reasonably strong Down Trend right now was almost a given, but the strength of it was out of the typical PA realm as well.

My long this morning from 3230 made some pips before the trailer took it out, but I'm going to keep watching for the most part while this thing sorts itself out...

Curious and curiouser...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #84,257
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:21pm Apr 8, 2009 2:21pm
Typical, all the way back down, coulda closed out here for a small profit, SUCKS!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #84,258
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:26pm Apr 8, 2009 2:26pm
Stong weekly session (so far) Downtrend in place with good power...

Wicked retraces but still respecting the pivots and mid-term swing fibs ((1hr from yesterday, link on previous post))

Back to the middle of the current daily range for today...

Back to Tuesday's LOD...

Back to the 1h/21sma...

Almost the end of US`session...

Unravel that if you willl.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #84,259
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:34pm Apr 8, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting ak4x
This current market is turning abnormal into normal, and there's a clue there for all of us as well, if want to stick a'rd in this Biz...
excellent post

it feels like some holiday where some big players forgot to show up to the game and the few players that are here are pushing pa around as they wish..up and down at any time with low volume. Its felt like this for a few weeks now (starting the week after feds bought us treasuries) but especially since the G-20 meeting.

This affects my #1 indicator..my gut feeling which helps develop my bias...even though pa does seem one directional when it gets moving and trading should be "easy". So yeah...emphasis on the "if you want to stick around in this Biz" part
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #84,260
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:46pm Apr 8, 2009 2:46pm
Just got back and was stopped out on my short so until I figure where the market is going I'm flat. My good feeling indicator said that was going to happen, but what can I say...can't win them all.

Take care and we'll do this again some other time.
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