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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #6,341
  • Edited 3:23am Apr 7, 2009 3:11am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting alcando
Well, we are camping on the 1H62 ema here at 14730 but I went long at 14660 following the m15 hanging man near the H1 100sma. Cant decide whether to close her or risk the news being good for the £. Talk is that the smaller decrease in manufacturing may be the sign of green shoots for the economy, so inline news may be good. I'll let this run till shortly after the news and then see what direction she wants to spend the morning in. Does not look like the big sellers are keen to play till the news.
Great entry.......I don't see where that hangman on the 15M is, I do see the Inverted Hangman...you got a chart??

As far as the news, just make sure to cover your position.

HOLLA
  • #6,342
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:30am Apr 7, 2009 3:30am
Sure, I was not expecting too much from it initially to be fair, but I liked the reaction to the higher TF as seen closer on the M1. Also a zero demand volume bar at low level, so I bought on the pause. Attached is the H1, M15 and smaller M1 which I monitor for volume reactions only. I am hanging in there for a likely turn around at 14800 or close on the news high.

Quoting Turtle
Great entry.......I don't see where that hangman on the 15M is, I do see the Inverted Hangman...you got a chart??

As far as the news, just make sure to cover your position.

HOLLA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #6,343
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:36am Apr 7, 2009 3:36am
Quoting alcando
Sure, I was not expecting too much from it initially to be fair, but I liked the reaction to the higher TF as seen closer on the M1. Also a zero demand volume bar at low level, so I bought on the pause. Attached is the H1, M15 and smaller M1 which I monitor for volume reactions only. I am hanging in there for a likely turn around at 14800 or close on the news high.
Great chart.......

I thought it was the Inverted Hangman...you had me confused when you said you saw a Hangman.

News was somewhat good for the pound, but the revision to last month numbers didn't help, let's see how she plays.

HOLLA
  • #6,344
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:47am Apr 7, 2009 3:47am
Oh, sorry, Yes, my understanding is a hanging man is the small body dangling with his arms grabbing the candles above hime on either side. The hang man being the bloke with his feet dangling below him.

Looks like the news has not been too well received so I closed on the rejection of the high. Sidelines for now but I suspect we are back to the flight to safety nonsense again.

Quoting Turtle
Great chart.......

I thought it was the Inverted Hangman...you had me confused when you said you saw a Hangman.

News was somewhat good for the pound, but the revision to last month numbers didn't help, let's see how she plays.

HOLLA
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #6,345
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:57am Apr 7, 2009 3:57am
Quoting alcando
Oh, sorry, Yes, my understanding is a hanging man is the small body dangling with his arms grabbing the candles above hime on either side. The hang man being the bloke with his feet dangling below him.

Looks like the news has not been too well received so I closed on the rejection of the high. Sidelines for now but I suspect we are back to the flight to safety nonsense again.
Yeah, we could be ranging until NY.

She needs to close over the 1hr 62ema to test 4800 again, which is probably sitting with sellers waiting.

Clear break below 4650...I see 4580 and then 4500.

Looks like I'm going for a nap until the US Session.

HOLLA
  • #6,346
  • Apr 7, 2009 3:59am Apr 7, 2009 3:59am
Quoting alcando
Well, we are camping on the 1H62 ema here at 14730 but I went long at 14660 following the m15 hanging man near the H1 100sma. Cant decide whether to close her or risk the news being good for the £. Talk is that the smaller decrease in manufacturing may be the sign of green shoots for the economy, so inline news may be good. I'll let this run till shortly after the news and then see what direction she wants to spend the morning in. Does not look like the big sellers are keen to play till the news.
Hey Alcando,

Has the 100sma been added to EO's ihr charts?

thanks
  • #6,347
  • Apr 7, 2009 4:14am Apr 7, 2009 4:14am
I dont normally use it and we dont often see it, but back testing it, the first reactions to it is quite remarkable. It was more useful to me as a confirmation of the validity of the candle Price Action rather than the reaction, but back test it for first touches and you will notice that it is quite useful.
Al

Quoting FOURX
Hey Alcando,

Has the 100sma been added to EO's ihr charts?

thanks
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #6,348
  • Apr 7, 2009 5:58am Apr 7, 2009 5:58am
Thanks Al
  • #6,349
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:05am Apr 7, 2009 7:05am
Hi guys,
You probably seen this already but looks like another Hang man on the 1hr just before NY open.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,350
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:28am Apr 7, 2009 7:28am
Yes it is not looking too exciting for a short yet, but with the Dow futures looking so weak, I cant see cable making a big move north. I am watching the shelf at 14670 which is lining up with the M15 35 and possibly the m15 50sma for a rebound South. Previous cable PA suggestes that we may seee a surge to it before heading down. I missed the long ..Waiting waiting..


Quoting stewrigh
Hi guys,
You probably seen this already but looks like another Hang man on the 1hr just before NY open.

Attachment
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #6,351
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:36am Apr 7, 2009 7:36am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi guys,
You probably seen this already but looks like another Hang man on the 1hr just before NY open.

Attachment
A candle like that when going down and at a major support area should be seen as reversal, not continuation.... If it was at the top of the range, it would be a better shot to short...

I was short from 4730 since London and had order to close at 4600... I woke up just in time to see the price at the h4 50ema where I reversed... I just closed long for 75 pips waiting for new setup...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #6,352
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:52am Apr 7, 2009 7:52am
so it looks like the H&S might not play out then?
  • #6,353
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:56am Apr 7, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Infinity
Will evaluate price action in the circled area ....
Circled area was a nice spot....

Quoting ezodisy
so it looks like the H&S might not play out then?
It's possible that it has played out... remember this chart...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #6,354
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:00am Apr 7, 2009 8:00am
Quoting ezodisy
so it looks like the H&S might not play out then?
I closed my long too early...

But it has many areas to get past before the shampoo is invalidated..
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #6,355
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:03am Apr 7, 2009 8:03am
thanks for the charts
  • #6,356
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:10am Apr 7, 2009 8:10am
Good morning everyone
Just waiting for 1hr set up activation for short cable..
My last trade based on this set up worked fine... Open at 1.4725 (62 blue EMA bounce)and closed at 1.4616 ... Although Im still learning these set up... the wick was some longer than ideal
Attached Image
"Even A Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step"
  • #6,357
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:20am Apr 7, 2009 8:20am
Good morning everyone! I just took at short position at 4699 from the hangman setup on the 15m.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #6,358
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:24am Apr 7, 2009 8:24am
Quoting eohater
Good morning everyone! I just took at short position at 4699 from the hangman setup on the 15m.
I hate it when I'm late to the party and end up with a 4710 entry :-)
  • #6,359
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:26am Apr 7, 2009 8:26am
Quoting nyjetfan
I hate it when I'm late to the party and end up with a 4710 entry :-)

Nice entry! I had just turned got to the office and was afraid I was going to miss the entry. Might not be good though, she's still hovering up here.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #6,360
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:30am Apr 7, 2009 8:30am
Quoting eohater
Nice entry! I had just turned got to the office and was afraid I was going to miss the entry. Might not be good though, she's still hovering up here.
Well we have the 1hr 62EMA to provide some cover overhead, and strong possibility of a double hanging man here on the 15m. Everything is falling into place nicely, now we just need the sellers to show up and drive this beyotch down!
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