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  • #83,281
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:43am Apr 5, 2009 2:43am
Quoting Jay Walker
But looking at it and making a storm in a teacup are two.

Will the markets react? Well, I wouldn't like to be a daytrader on the Tokyo or the Seoul Stock Exchange on Monday. But if I held something for the long term, I'd let it be.

Will this be an issue in a year from now? Judging by what happened before. No.
great post and agree 100%.

Long term clearly it wont have an impact (unless a war begins...I hope not)
Recall the Russia/Georgia war when Eur/Usd was at 1.6 and the Olympics happened just around that time. Its been less then a year and that war stopped getting media attention before 2008 was over. I dont even know if the war is over.

I was mainly referring to the Sunday/Monday open while the markets dilute the information. Let's not forget...most of the traders who visit this thread are intraday traders/scalpers (including myself) which is why this news should be taken into account ...for now.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #83,282
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:48am Apr 5, 2009 2:48am
Quoting Jay Walker
Will this be an issue in a year from now? Judging by what happened before. No.
As a day trader I'm not really interested in what happens in a year from now, or even in a month from now.
I'm interested in what happens tomorrow, or the coming week.

But I agree with you Jay, this missile shit will not be an issue if you look at a year from now. I also agree with Psi, as to the extend that reactions in the market are way of normal limits.

I'm very anxious to see what happens a few hours from now.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #83,283
  • Apr 5, 2009 3:04am Apr 5, 2009 3:04am
Quoting stewrigh
I live in England and we've known for a long time that the economy was stuffed - what I don't understand is why the pound has been going up. A good example of technicals not folllowing fundamentals???
I wouldnt say its been going up. Pull up a weekly chart on the pair and note how we dropped hardcore from the high to the low...we havent event made 23.6% retracement yet on a weekly term.

On the short term....there are two issues that you may be interested in researching. One is the term "dead cat bounce". Another is bull rallies in bear markets.

What it comes down to is the very simple issue that has existed since the beggining of the markets. For every buyer there is a seller. Sell enough as the gbp has been sold so much for so long...at some point there will be only buyers left to either attempt a "reversal" or give room for the sellers to reload their positions at cheaper prices. COT data may be of interest to you here as well (although i could not help you with that at all)

Then there is fundies and recently all fundies have pointed to abandoning the dollar as a "safe haven" as appetite for risk has improved. How long this lasts..who knows. It could be that starting tommorow the bear downtrend continues based simply on the prime ministers comments...who knows.

To conclude..there are so many issues that influence what a pair does...it is hard to pinpoint any particular reason. Unless you are a long term fundies trader...I suggest you don't pay too much attention as to why the market does what it does...you will pick it up slowly over time without even realizing it. I mean...look at me...I started in Dec 07 knowing nothing about fundies and now...it's like I've taken economics for a full year without ever attending class..probably learned more too. While I dont understand the particular mechanics of every detail yet...the general idea I get.

After all, I trade what I see on my charts, not fundies, that I learn just for fun.
Hope this all helps
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #83,284
  • Apr 5, 2009 3:30am Apr 5, 2009 3:30am
Quoting psiholog
I wouldnt say its been going up. Pull up a weekly chart on the pair and note how we dropped hardcore from the high to the low...we havent event made 23.6% retracement yet on a weekly term.

On the short term....there are two issues that you may be interested in researching. One is the term "dead cat bounce". Another is bull rallies in bear markets.

What it comes down to is the very simple issue that has existed since the beggining of the markets. For every buyer there is a seller. Sell enough as the gbp has been sold so much for so long...at...
Thanks P - Yeah I agree the pound has died over the past few months - Its just the past few weeks its been going up - I guess I need to change my focus a bit.
  • #83,285
  • Apr 5, 2009 4:18am Apr 5, 2009 4:18am
Quoting KillerWhale
LOL
In anticipation of this I bought Gold @ Oanda.
Lets see if this works out. I don't see this as trading, more as gambling.
Average buy price a little below $900 per ounce. I have set my target @ $1,000 per ounce. If I reach my target, that means a profit of 10,000 pips, which is $100 per ounce.

Shamu
Strange ! though I am not trading gold for now & nor see the charts I thought it will real down in gold after the G-20 meeting when IMF will need 100' ton gold to sell and I told my wife to be ready in few months to buy ornaments .

How do you so confident raise so high ?
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #83,286
  • Apr 5, 2009 4:42am Apr 5, 2009 4:42am
I wouldn't worry too much about the North Korean missle thing. They don't do that stuff because they intend to nuke another country. They only do it to get other countries to give them goods and money so they won't do it again. That's why nothing is ever (visably) done about it.
  • #83,287
  • Apr 5, 2009 4:46am Apr 5, 2009 4:46am
Quoting fontu
Strange ! though I am not trading gold for now & nor see the charts I thought it will real down in gold after the G-20 meeting when IMF will need 100' ton gold to sell and I told my wife to be ready in few months to buy ornaments .

How do you so confident raise so high ?
fontu
If people get scared, like with north korea, they buy gold as a last resort.
but even if gold is not going up now, it will in the long term.
Gold is not an insurance for a recession, it is an insurance regarding to inflation. And inflation will come of course with US printing billions of dollars.
Give it some time and interest rates will rise and so will gold.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #83,288
  • Apr 5, 2009 5:32am Apr 5, 2009 5:32am
Tell me what has north koreans ever done to you....Do you even know any north koreans in your lifetime that you just digest any propaganda news that come out of TV and churn it out here.

With these economic climate...Your own American government is more dangerous than any outside forces.

Its time to isolate America than north korea...America has done more damage to the world than any north koreans will ever do..

Was Barnie madoff and AIG north koreans....is your own tax money going to north koreans or its going to American crokeed wall street mobsters.

The whole of the world combined wont be able to do anything to the north koreans you know why..cos the guys sitting on top in our own country are as currpt as the north koreans would ever be.
  • #83,289
  • Apr 5, 2009 5:34am Apr 5, 2009 5:34am
So Obama promised ban on production and proliferation of nuclear material. Awesome, so long for nuclear research. Idiot.
  • #83,290
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:25am Apr 5, 2009 7:25am
maybe?
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BANDA333
  • #83,291
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:32am Apr 5, 2009 7:32am
still at 1.3483 ...

no reaction to the N.K news yet apparently
  • #83,292
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:51am Apr 5, 2009 7:51am
Hey buddy
How are you? Could you please tell what you meant by "N.K news".......North Korea? lol

Thank you

Quoting trading801
still at 1.3483 ...

no reaction to the N.K news yet apparently
BANDA333
  • #83,293
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:52am Apr 5, 2009 7:52am
Quoting BANDA
Hey buddy
How are you? Could you please tell what you meant by "N.K news".......

Thank you
hey hi... fine u ?

oh.. the north korea missile launch ..
  • #83,294
  • Apr 5, 2009 8:09am Apr 5, 2009 8:09am
I'm just glad nobody has mentioned the word "gap."








































Damn.
  • #83,295
  • Apr 5, 2009 8:23am Apr 5, 2009 8:23am
Quoting KillerWhale
If people get scared, like with north korea, they buy gold as a last resort.
but even if gold is not going up now, it will in the long term.
Gold is not an insurance for a recession, it is an insurance regarding to inflation. And inflation will come of course with US printing billions of dollars.
Give it some time and interest rates will rise and so will gold.
Inflation may not come as fervently as some suspect. I have been a believer in this scenario for a while, but I have been rethinking the reality of what the FED's actions are really going to cause. Since a lot of the money being printed is not really entering the economy directly, and instead is finding it's way onto the balance sheets of corporations, I don't see how the inflation can manifest itself too abruptly. The spending that will directly hit the bottom line, might just be enough to keep us afloat and not fuel the inflation we all worry about. At leasst that's the goal.

What about the dollar? If markets inprove, we develop new technologies, and if foreign investors keep finding reasons to invest in USA, I would have to think any dollar weakness is likely to be brief. Likely it will last long enough to get foreign investors cheaper dollars than they might be a year from now. This brings me back to my biggest question. What is the dollar really worth vs. it's peers. The 1.60 of last year was fueled by perhaps, rediculous speculation and high commodity prices...will we reach there again? Demand sure doesn't seem to be able to support that, at least not yet.

Time will tell, but I think I am better off as a trader by removing bias from my perception and focusing on trying to find the best entries I can following these rediculous markets of greed and conflict. I want to keep my money and if I am lucky, make some through effective timing. Inflation may be lurking in the winds, but I am not able to hold on to that possibility in the short term and a guarantee to bet against the US Dollar.
  • #83,296
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:33am Apr 5, 2009 9:33am
Quoting spiderforex
Tell me what has north koreans ever done to you.....

Was Barnie madoff and AIG north koreans.....
All true except the part about all the bad we did to the rest of the world. What good we have done farrrrrrrrrr outweighs what bad we might have ever done.

Also we are not a totalitarian dictatorship (yet anyway) ruled by "Elvis" isolated from the rest of the world except the Chinese.

I nominate "Jenny" to be our dictator if we get to that point. Right Jay.
  • #83,297
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:37am Apr 5, 2009 9:37am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Inflation may not come as fervently as some suspect. I have been a believer in this scenario for a while, but I have been rethinking the reality of what the FED's actions are really going to cause. Since a lot of the money being printed is not really entering the economy directly, and instead is finding it's way onto the balance sheets of corporations, I don't see how the inflation can manifest itself too abruptly. The spending that will directly hit the bottom line, might just be enough to keep us afloat and not fuel the inflation we all worry...
Surely if inflation goes up and if the US comes out of this recession first, as some think, and if US rates go up - then the dollar will go up too. Lot of ifs I know but possible.
  • #83,298
  • Apr 5, 2009 10:06am Apr 5, 2009 10:06am
Quoting stewrigh
Surely if inflation goes up and if the US comes out of this recession first, as some think, and if US rates go up - then the dollar will go up too. Lot of ifs I know but possible.
Good point about rates driving USD demand, potentially.
  • #83,299
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:02am Apr 5, 2009 11:02am
Quoting stewrigh
Surely if inflation goes up and if the US comes out of this recession first, as some think, and if US rates go up - then the dollar will go up too. Lot of ifs I know but possible.
I agree, the most basic fundamentals point to a strenghtening of the dollar in the medium term, so I think it's probably more likely to see the dollar at around 1.20 than, say, 1.50.

That said, the one thing my brief experience with forex has taught me is that all my knowledge of economics is basically useless in this business.
  • #83,300
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:18am Apr 5, 2009 11:18am
Quoting Tenshi28
I agree, the most basic fundamentals point to a strenghtening of the dollar in the medium term, so I think it's probably more likely to see the dollar at around 1.20 than, say, 1.50.

That said, the one thing my brief experience with forex has taught me is that all my knowledge of economics is basically useless in this business.
Trade Gap Probably Held at Six-Year Low: U.S. Economy Preview


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By Timothy R. Homan
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade gap in February probably held at a six-year low as the worst global slump since World War II caused exports and imports to collapse, economists said ahead of a government report this week.
A deficit of $36 billion, the same as in January, is the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department’s April 9 report. Other figures the same day may show the cost of imported goods increased in March for the first time in eight months as fuel prices rebounded.
Flagging sales overseas will keep depressing U.S. economic growth as manufacturers, already in a yearlong freefall, cut payrolls, output and inventories. The gloomy outlook prompted world leaders, meeting in London last week, to pledge more than $1 trillion to stem the slump in world trade.
“The combination of a global recession and the global credit crunch are causing worldwide trade to dry up,” said Jay Bryson, a global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The worst part for the trade deficit will be here in the first half of the year.”
While consumer spending has shown signs of stabilizing this year after plunging in the last six months of 2008, the improvements may not be enough to lead to a pickup in import purchases, economists said.
Any gain would probably be caused by the rebound in fuel costs. The price of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $48.11 a barrel in March, up from $39.26 the month before.
Prices Up
Rising oil probably contributed to a projected 0.9 percent gain in the cost of imported goods, the first increase since July, according to the survey median ahead of a Labor Department report on April 9.
Forecasts are calling for a decline in global trade, sapping overseas demand for American-made goods. The World Bank last month projected trade will fall 6.1 percent worldwide. Earlier in March the World Trade Organization predicted a 9 percent drop.
Another report from Commerce this week is likely to show inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in February for a sixth straight month, indicating companies may trim orders going into the second quarter.
Weak sales are contributing to job cuts as firms rein in labor costs to weather the recession, now in its second year. Employers cut 663,000 workers from payrolls in March, and the jobless rate surged to 8.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter century, the Labor Department reported last week.
FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, said last week it is eliminating 1,000 jobs as part of a plan to save $1 billion as sales drop.
The “global economic reality” made the job cuts “unavoidable,” Maury Lane, a FedEx spokesman, said in an April 3 telephone interview.


Bloomberg Survey================================================================ Release Period Prior MedianIndicator Date Value Forecast================================================================Cons. Credit $ Blns 4/7 Feb. 1.8 -3.0Whlsale Inv. MOM% 4/8 Feb. -0.9% -0.6%Trade Balance $ Blns 4/9 Feb. -36.0 -36.0Import Prices MOM% 4/9 March -0.2% 0.9%Import Prices YOY% 4/9 March -12.8% -14.6%Initial Claims ,000’s 4/9 28-Mar 669 660Cont. Claims ,000’s 4/9 21-Mar 5728 5800Federal Budget $ Blns 4/10 March -48.2 -150.0
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