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  • #83,261
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:56am Apr 4, 2009 10:56am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
It's interesting to look at, but I think I would cautious about thinking too long on EURO based on COT. All we need is an indication that EURO will start buying their bonds as US FED has, and quantitative easing gets a hold of EURO valuation.
T,

I doubt that could happen. The ECB doesn't issue any.

So how do they decide how many Bund's/OAT's/BTP's/etc to buy?

Like someone labeled the euro - it is a currency without a country.

Problems brewing underneath the surface if world economies continue slide.

It is why I still think the US with all its debt becomes a safe haven. Crazy I know, but it is what it is.

Sun
  • #83,262
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:13am Apr 4, 2009 11:13am
Quoting ak4x
the only one I know of that might be reasonably reliable... but i pay no attention to weekend numbers so can't actually say.

they do show the time of the last update and that could be handy. you can sort the times by clicking on the column header and get the most recent update times to see what moved last...

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/
Thank you sir!
  • #83,263
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:33am Apr 4, 2009 11:33am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
the cot measures both institutional and non institutional futures contract open interest as separate. The "idea" is that institutional open interest in a pair is opposite to their spot market or shorter term positions as a hedge, but I am not so sure about that. The non institutional open interest represents other players, and often seems to be in contrast to the institutions. I spent a lot of time a year ago looking at this data, developed my own charts and frankly, found it inconsistent as an indicator. The site i linked to, runs a pretend portfolio...
The COT definitely gives me an alert especially when a currency pair is trading in a consolidation range as it is on this descending triangle on the weekly chart. However this recent rally that we have in the dow has been on light volume while the bear market runs have been with high volume that also sends an alert. And then there is the deepening recession occuring in europe as well as the rest of the world without really any economic numbers starting to show signs of life except you may possibly argue housing(but we haven't had enough figures to confirm.) Also with job lossess expected to continue and increase, how can the consumer stimulate the economy?

Also the COT is a week delayed. Many investors were expecting armageddon for the dollar when they came out with their quantitative easing announcement at the last FED meeting. Some investors have already exited their positions such as JP Morgan and Citigroup on a bullish euro against the dollar due to the lack of follow through.

And still some investors are betting that the U.S. will be the first out of the recession and lead the rest of the world out which would be conducive to a stronger dollar as the U.S. raises interest rates during its growth. The Eurozone is delaying its 0 interest rate policy. Remember they are still in a cutting stance. If there is a rebound in the U.S. we could see the Eurozone's interest rates near 0 while the U.S. is raising interest rates which would strengthen the dollar. This last paragraph could be a ways off. But long term investors may keep this mind.

Looking at the weekly chart we see the descending triangle that we are in. A close above downward trendline would validate a move towards 1.47. since you take the height of the triange and project it onward.

A move beyond the downward trending line but rejection from say the 1.38 level and close below the trendline would be a bearish signal.

In the shorter term I would not be surprised by a move up to 1.47. But in the medium term I expect either a stronger dollar towards parity or a range between 1.25 and 1.47.
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  • #83,264
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:17pm Apr 4, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting trading801
current price

1.3482

1.3483 now
  • #83,265
  • Apr 4, 2009 2:54pm Apr 4, 2009 2:54pm
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I will upload my hourly Chart as soon as I can, take a notie, that I do trade the hourly and my entries are based on what I see on the hourly!
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #83,266
  • Apr 4, 2009 3:42pm Apr 4, 2009 3:42pm
Obama speech 2morrow in Prague. He he is supposedly going to say something groundbreaking on nuclear weapons. Three things come up to my mind:

a) it has been 30 years since Three Mile Island, can it be plutonium reactor time now plz?

b) put eventual usage of US nukes under NATO vote man!

c) populistic bulshit about disarmment treaty with Russia, "we will halve our nuke count from 10,000 to 5,000", oh how epic
  • #83,267
  • Apr 4, 2009 4:11pm Apr 4, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting nvcK
Obama speech 2morrow in Prague. He he is supposedly going to say something groundbreaking on nuclear weapons. Three things come up to my mind:

a) it has been 30 years since Three Mile Island, can it be plutonium reactor time now plz?

b) put eventual usage of US nukes under NATO vote man!

c) populistic bulshit about disarmment treaty with Russia, "we will halve our nuke count from 10,000 to 5,000", oh how epic
nice avatar
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #83,268
  • Apr 4, 2009 4:22pm Apr 4, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting fayz0r
nice avatar
what does yours mean? mine says 'young and pissed off' lol
  • #83,269
  • Apr 4, 2009 4:47pm Apr 4, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting bradorboy
I respectfully disagree with you. If you look at the 1H chart you will see it is rounding out the upward retracement making a smooth "U" bottom right now which is preparing with the upward movement back to at least 1.3550 and then the Daily says further from there. It always helps to see different perspectives, this is mine. Good luck! Mine is protected with pixie dust so I am much more confident and will sleep well tonight...but seriously you should look at the smoothing "U" bottom which is happening right now. Check EURGBP too to confirm...same...
Everyone had a good week I hope? We going up again from here? I think we are at a nice pivot point so be careful...have to study the charts some more to see. Looks like OIL is making a HUGE turn back up which is very peculiar...
  • #83,270
  • Apr 4, 2009 7:37pm Apr 4, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting bradorboy
Looks like OIL is making a HUGE turn back up which is very peculiar...
Why, if stocks go up they believe economy might be ok, so oil goes up too.

I don't believe the economy is ok and therefore don't believe stocks and oil will continue much higher and don't believe EU will either.

This does not mean Monday or next week overall. This means weeks and months from now.
  • #83,271
  • Apr 4, 2009 8:32pm Apr 4, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why, if stocks go up they believe economy might be ok, so oil goes up too.

I don't believe the economy is ok and therefore don't believe stocks and oil will continue much higher and don't believe EU will either.

This does not mean Monday or next week overall. This means weeks and months from now.
Well I agree with your idea but how many times have you seen technicals just completely go against the fundamentals? Should OIL have even been as high as it was last year? Should it have gone down as fast as it did without expecting a rebound? And if Obambi keeps printing out more dollars at the pace he is doing right now than I guess that alone will be reason for the dollar to continue to devalue and the ficitious market run up that everyone will want to jump in on. This is just my devils advocate theory to the illogical. I am keeping it in the back of my mind just in case. ALso if you go with the bad economy theory then you are planning for a depressionary situation. Just something to consider...I am thinking upwards at least for the coming week...lets see if we pass this pivot point we are at right now...
  • #83,272
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:05am Apr 5, 2009 12:05am
It is official. North Korea launched its rocket. Check any news source for details. Be prepared for a wild sunday. I'm not quite sure how this may impact the EUR/USD but the idea of a "flight to safety" (no pun intended) comes strongly to mind which means possible dollar/yen strength. To be seen
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #83,273
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:08am Apr 5, 2009 12:08am
Quoting trading801
1.3483 now

no change to current price
  • #83,274
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:23am Apr 5, 2009 12:23am
Quoting psiholog
It is official. North Korea launched its rocket. Check any news source for details. Be prepared for a wild sunday. I'm not quite sure how this may impact the EUR/USD but the idea of a "flight to safety" (no pun intended) comes strongly to mind which means possible dollar/yen strength. To be seen
LOL
In anticipation of this I bought Gold @ Oanda.
Lets see if this works out. I don't see this as trading, more as gambling.
Average buy price a little below $900 per ounce. I have set my target @ $1,000 per ounce. If I reach my target, that means a profit of 10,000 pips, which is $100 per ounce.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #83,275
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:01am Apr 5, 2009 1:01am
Quoting psiholog
It is official. North Korea launched its rocket. Check any news source for details. Be prepared for a wild sunday. I'm not quite sure how this may impact the EUR/USD but the idea of a "flight to safety" (no pun intended) comes strongly to mind which means possible dollar/yen strength. To be seen
Happened in 1998 too. It's the 4578 strikes and you're out rule.

Aside from getting South Korea, Japan and the U.S. pissed off, not much will happen from that.

A little movement in the forex world. But will it be something to write home about?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #83,276
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:26am Apr 5, 2009 1:26am
Quoting zamah
Just May Be and may be just! Target at 5
interesting points to see
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #83,277
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:30am Apr 5, 2009 1:30am
Quoting Jay Walker
Happened in 1998 too. It's the 4578 strikes and you're out rule.

Aside from getting South Korea, Japan and the U.S. pissed off, not much will happen from that.

A little movement in the forex world. But will it be something to write home about?
I think traders should be scared to death, not because its scary but because I want to reach my target in my gold trade.
So please, be scared.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #83,278
  • Edited 1:59am Apr 5, 2009 1:42am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting Jay Walker
A little movement in the forex world. But will it be something to write home about?
I think you will agree when I say we live in the most volatile time in history...be it equities, commodities, currencies...etcetera.

(This part you may disagree with)
We live in the age of speculation where the smallest rumor sparks the greatest rallies, if the market makers choose to give that rumor any attention.

Best example, shitibank as you call it...recall how it was 99 cents less then a month ago...then the speculation of a profitable month or quarter arose one day and then boom...big rally...where is shitibank now...a whopping 2.85 per share. Of course more speculation arose along the way but fundamentally we dont even know if shitibank can pay its own bills yet for a fact. The same applies to pretty much the whole equity rally...speculation of improving this and that and the idea of "equities rally before the economy improves" and so on. If the last NFP data is any proof of where were headed....this whole bull rally has been unjustified. But again...speculation that things will improve has lead the way.

Now lets take this rocket launch...there is a lot of speculation around the idea that North Korea is just testing its long range missile capabilities with possibly "negative" intentions. This may create a sense of panic if the media/market makers hypes the issue up which in turn may lead to at least a temporary need for a "safe haven".

It is not guaranteed we will see a reaction though like you said. It all depends on which story the market makers want to give attention to on any particular day which is why i said "may" as you never know which piece of news will get the most attention at any one time.

Still...better not to overlook the issue, dont you think?

Edit: heres another example of speculation...this time from England. Will this be what moves the markets instead of the rocket news? Maybe..maybe not...your the fundies expert

Recession 'Worse Than We Thought' - British Finance Minister http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...6-57b133fd852a
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #83,279
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:17am Apr 5, 2009 2:17am
Quoting psiholog
I think you will agree when I say we live in the most volatile time in history...be it equities, commodities, currencies...etcetera.

(This part you may disagree with)
We live in the age of speculation where the smallest rumor sparks the greatest rallies, if the market makers choose to give that rumor any attention.

Best example, shitibank as you call it...recall how it was 99 cents less then a month ago...then the speculation of a profitable month or quarter arose one day and then boom...big rally...where is shitibank now...a whopping 2.85...
I agree with most of it Psi. And I also agree that it should not be overlooked.

But looking at it and making a storm in a teacup are two.

Are Japan, South Korea and the U.S.A. pissed? Yes

Will the U.N. Security council write a letter? Yes

Will the markets react? Well, I wouldn't like to be a daytrader on the Tokyo or the Seoul Stock Exchange on Monday. But if I held something for the long term, I'd let it be.

Will this be an issue in a year from now? Judging by what happened before. No.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #83,280
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:40am Apr 5, 2009 2:40am
Quoting psiholog
I think you will agree when I say we live in the most volatile time in history...be it equities, commodities, currencies...etcetera.

(This part you may disagree with)
We live in the age of speculation where the smallest rumor sparks the greatest rallies, if the market makers choose to give that rumor any attention.

Best example, shitibank as you call it...recall how it was 99 cents less then a month ago...then the speculation of a profitable month or quarter arose one day and then boom...big rally...where is shitibank now...a whopping 2.85...
I live in England and we've known for a long time that the economy was stuffed - what I don't understand is why the pound has been going up. A good example of technicals not folllowing fundamentals???
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