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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #26,141
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:43pm Apr 4, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello everyone,

I am looking for advice on whether to take this GBPCAD daily pin bar trade, it gives me few good reason to take it but I still want some advice from experience trader.

Reason to take this trade:

1. It bounce off 150EMA twice..
2. Double top (two day pin bar top)
3. 38.3% fib level. (very strong RET at this area)

If I set a selling stop at the pin bar low, my first target is 1.8, do u guys think if it is reasonable and a trade that is considerable to take it?


Any help will be appreciate!
It's off a decent round number ppz but look at the space it's heading into...

Hardly 40 pips before we hit our first couple of bar highs,

Move on to the 4H and you'll see another nice ppz off the 1.82 level which also provided some great support to the first pin bar and which resulted in this second pin bar...

Just like Mike said, you are'nt being dissuaded against the trade, but if you do take it get into your most conservative guise to manage this well

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached Images
I believe . . .
  • #26,142
  • Apr 5, 2009 1:06am Apr 5, 2009 1:06am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
you are supprising us, at least me. no offence here, your result was awesome. I was trying to write you PM, but, you choose not to accept. I have too many questions regarding to your trades. but, in anycase, thanks for sharing the information

Quoting raczekfx
% gain is relative to your trades selection and discipline. I don't pressure myself to do 1 or 5% every month. Whatever comes, I'll welcome it. I don't necessary agree with some comments I've read in the past, what's good and what's not, but everyone is entitled to have an opinion. What's more important to me is: was I following my plan (you must to have a plan). anyways It's getting late and I got a run. Just keep doing what you doing with some extra emphasis on stops and profit targets and you'll do all right over the years. Just treat your demo...
  • #26,143
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:22am Apr 5, 2009 2:22am
Hi

I read earlier in this thread that the 150 & 365 EMAs often offer support & resistance. Are they 150-day & 365-day EMAs or 150-period & 365-period EMAs? Obviously the 150-day and 365-day EMAs are the same regardless of the chart period, but the others change with the chart period.

I haven't being using EMAs, but if they add to confluence I'd like to see it.

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #26,144
  • Apr 5, 2009 2:35am Apr 5, 2009 2:35am
Hi all

I'd appreciate some wisdom on my dilemma. I think I'm becoming gun-shy unless the senior members on this thread point out or comment on a good set-up. I feel real resistance to trying one on my own. ("How could I know better than them?")

Having lost a bit of my (small) real account, I am now following James' business rules (3 months of profitable demo trading) and I'm starting to feel the power of it. As expected, I've made very few trades since then (a few weeks), but the only ones that went well are the ones where I traded a set-up someone else had pointed out on this thread.

Do I stop reading for a while (and miss out on the fantastic education James & you guys share so willingly)?
Do I just practise following the popular set-ups (but risk not learning how to do it myself)?

Trading really is about your own psychology. I'd appreciate any advice.

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #26,145
  • Apr 5, 2009 4:55am Apr 5, 2009 4:55am
Quoting Jellybean
Hi all

I'd appreciate some wisdom on my dilemma. I think I'm becoming gun-shy unless the senior members on this thread point out or comment on a good set-up. I feel real resistance to trying one on my own. ("How could I know better than them?")

Having lost a bit of my (small) real account, I am now following James' business rules (3 months of profitable demo trading) and I'm starting to feel the power of it. As expected, I've made very few trades since then (a few weeks), but the only ones that went well are the ones where I traded a set-up...
Hey Jellybean,

Exactly the same thing happened and still sometimes happens to me. It can be crippling. Now I notice when I open the charts where my bias is (it could be "oh god I hope there's no trades" which is me being gun shy, or it could be "dammit I'm not going to pass on another that takes off!" which means I am biased towards over trading) I try and just acknowledge this and be aware.

First thing to say is that it's much better to be gun shy than it is to be trigger happy. Trading is passing passing passing. Someone on this thread had been struggling recently and Jim put him on a maximum of 5 trades a month, but preferably 3. So that part is good. Every loser takes a winner to cancel it out (if you trade the way James does, usually more than one winner to cancel it out) That's what people forget. Your loser makes your next hard earned winner count for nothing. As a wise old man once told me, a ten mile walk into the woods is a ten mile walk back.

But onto the main part of your post which is that you need confirmation from forum members. Boy do I ever relate to this. Go back over the last hundred pages and there's a great post from a guy who changed his pending order 4 times based on what he read from different members. There are a couple of things IMO that it's important to remember, and a couple of exercises that might help.

Firstly, you never know what someone's trading plan is. I used to really want mbqb11's opinion on every trade and had to resist asking him. A lot clicked for me when I realised that he very rarely takes a daily or weekly price action setup, and only lets the best of the best in. And the reason he does this is because the bulk of his trading is from intraday and consolidation breakouts. I was missing the big picture. He also doesn't like to move his stops until the end of the day. So a trade that bounced in the middle of the day would be bad for him. Whereas James16 and Jarroo like to day trade off the daily chart. Jarroo will take more setups because his criteria is whether they can get to first target where he will take half off the table. No way is right, they all are variations on the solid gold of James16's basic teachings. But crucially, each member will give a different opinion on a setup based on how they trade.

And here's the crunch....it's useless to take Jarroo's trades if you manage them like Mike. Look at how you like to trade, when you're available to be at the computer, whether you like to day trade off the daily chart. And if you're only taking dailies and weeklies on demo as per James' recommendations, then it's probably not wise to seek the opinion of someone for who the bulk of his profits come from elsewhere and who only takes a handful of dailies a year.

You're dealing with perfectionism. It's my biggest psychological hurdle too. Never trade never lose, right? I so relate. Guess what? You're so far on to have even recognised this as an issue. Your post shows you are miles ahead of the pack who only post on ff asking "please help. what will GU do next?" And it's easily fixable.

I would suggest two things to help. Firstly, backtest. Either use forextester, vhands or just scroll historical data on MT4 forward with the F12 key. Do a search for backtesting programs on FF and see which approach you like. Get hundreds of trades under your belt backtesting because that will be hundreds of decisions you made on your own, without the forum noise. If you take losses and are wondering why, then fire a pm to me or anyone else with an annotated chart saying "I took this and managed it this way, what happened?". In a weekend you can backtest hundreds of daily pinbars and you'll then work out what you're comfortable trading, and what they are likely to do. Keep a spreadsheet with the entry, SL, TP, date and how the trade would have played if you'd tried various exit strategies. Full TP at first support/resistance target? Partial TP? When would you move the stop to BE? How far did the trade run in total? Did it break next bar? It can be tedious but it really, and I mean really, builds confidence. Which is what you need right now.

Secondly, and this was once suggested to me by someone, open a new demo account and try and lose the cash as quick as possible. Literally burn through it. Don't have any other purpose. If it goes up 400% then don't suddenly think 'oh I am going to change the objective'. No. Just try and lose as fast as possible. That'll help the gunshy thing. It did for me. It's fun too. And it gets you pulling the trigger and over that fear hurdle.

That was suggested to me by someone. I don't know if it's a proprietary exercise or whether it was just a frinedly suggestion. If it's the former then I have no problem editing it to remove it from the post and apologising. I think it's okay to pass on though which is why I am putting it here.

Good luck! You are closer than you think. Most traders on here think psychology is a luxury for when they are earning millions. You're way way ahead of the curve.
  • #26,146
  • Apr 5, 2009 5:42am Apr 5, 2009 5:42am
Quoting TiaForex
Hey Jellybean,

Exactly the same thing happened and still sometimes happens to me. It can be crippling. Now I notice when I open the charts where my bias is (it could be "oh god I hope there's no trades" which is me being gun shy, or it could be "dammit I'm not going to pass on another that takes off!" which means I am biased towards over trading) I try and just acknowledge this and be aware.

First thing to say is that it's much better to be gun shy than it is to be trigger happy. Trading is passing passing passing. Someone on this thread had...
Wow & Thanks Tia

I didn't expect response so quickly. I usually have to wait for America to wake up, but I see you're in the UK - having breakfast when I'm about to crash.

Anyway, I'm going to print out your post and set it next to my PC. I appreciate your advice about back testing and I'll look at the programs you mentioned during the week. I'm on holiday the week after so the timing's good.

Actually, my problem with my real account was staying out. I was always worried I'd miss a good move. If I wasn't in I wasn't going to make money, right? Well, losing taught me that error in thinking. I need to get a balance and as you say lots of harmless practice may do the trick.

Thanks again.
Jellybean
Off to bed now ...
  • #26,147
  • Apr 5, 2009 6:08am Apr 5, 2009 6:08am
Hi All,

Have only been reading thread for a few weeks so am still picking this up but here goes..Weekly pinbar, goes through 50 &61 Fib and bounces off S/R (PPZ?) around 1.5045. Downside is it's not at swing high/low so not sure it's got much room to move. Any comments would be appreciated.

Hope you are having a top weekend.
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  • #26,148
  • Apr 5, 2009 6:09am Apr 5, 2009 6:09am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Here's my charts for Echf
Weekly PB of support 1.5150, room to run to 1.5600, i've included the daily - on the daily we find that 5150 has provided support going back into mid 2008, we broke back into this range with ease and i've already played the 4h Pb that led into this, unfortunately my second part was taken out for a few pips so it's not running for this, would have been nice to have a free runner on this and add to it.

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  • #26,149
  • Apr 5, 2009 6:13am Apr 5, 2009 6:13am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Leebar
Hi All,

Have only been reading thread for a few weeks so am still picking this up but here goes..Weekly pinbar, goes through 50 &61 Fib and bounces off S/R (PPZ?) around 1.5045. Downside is it's not at swing high/low so not sure it's got much room to move. Any comments would be appreciated.

Hope you are having a top weekend.
My pc jammed so you posted just before me, don't take my responce as a good one, wait for someone that has a clue
  • #26,150
  • Apr 5, 2009 7:06am Apr 5, 2009 7:06am
WOW! Thanks for asking this Jellybean...Thanks for answering Tia! I love this group!

Quoting TiaForex
Hey Jellybean,

Exactly the same thing happened and still sometimes happens to me. It can be crippling. Now I notice when I open the charts where my bias is (it could be "oh god I hope there's no trades" which is me being gun shy, or it could be "dammit I'm not going to pass on another that takes off!" which means I am biased towards over trading) I try and just acknowledge this and be aware.

First thing to say is that it's much better to be gun shy than it is to be trigger happy. Trading is passing passing passing. Someone on this thread...
  • #26,151
  • Edited 10:41am Apr 5, 2009 8:03am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting ghous
You're oozing diligence Josh

WIsh you all the best!

Regards,
Ghous.
I'd like to add my praise as well Josh, BRILLIANT!

(I couldn't resist adding a little pizaz to your image Ghous) in the form of a 3 dimensional wood carving....

EDIT: Good Point Ghous. How silly of me. Is this better?
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,152
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:17am Apr 5, 2009 9:17am
Quoting albchr
I'd like to add my praise as well Josh, BRILLIANT!

(I couldn't resist adding a little pizaz to your image Ghous) in the form of a 3 dimensional wood carving....
How I wish you would add the Word "Josh" there

Nice work nevertheless, but you dumped my star... lol! (Sorry Josh )
I believe . . .
  • #26,153
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:22am Apr 5, 2009 9:22am
Quoting TiaForex
Hey Jellybean,

Exactly the same thing happened and still sometimes happens to me. It can be crippling. Now I notice when I open the charts where my bias is (it could be "oh god I hope there's no trades" which is me being gun shy, or it could be "dammit I'm not going to pass on another that takes off!" which means I am biased towards over trading) I try and just acknowledge this and be aware.

First thing to say is that it's much better to be gun shy than it is to be trigger happy. Trading is passing passing passing. Someone on this thread had...
WOW, keep it going Tia the thread needs a couple of such posts from you daily...

I believe . . .
  • #26,154
  • Apr 5, 2009 10:46am Apr 5, 2009 10:46am
Hey group-
I see a pin bar on the EURGBP H-4 poking down through a 50% fib from a higher time frame. (See chart if it attached correctly.)
Enter long @.9103
SL= .9065
1/2 out @ first S/R level of .9165
Daily & weekly trend looks down so this would be a counter trend trade and short lived.
Any thoughts/ comments / what did I miss so far?
TIA
Attached Image
  • #26,155
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:19am Apr 5, 2009 11:19am
Quoting Jellybean
Wow & Thanks Tia

I didn't expect response so quickly. I usually have to wait for America to wake up, but I see you're in the UK - having breakfast when I'm about to crash.

Anyway, I'm going to print out your post and set it next to my PC. I appreciate your advice about back testing and I'll look at the programs you mentioned during the week. I'm on holiday the week after so the timing's good.

Actually, my problem with my real account was staying out. I was always worried I'd miss a good move. If I wasn't in I wasn't going to make money, right?...
Aaron gave you great advice. If you are doubting yourself, it is usually because you have no real trading plan. Instead you are opening the charts and just sort of "feeling it out" as you go. The people I know that are trading and trading successfully, have a method/plan that they follow. They are looking for generally the same things, or are comfortable with certain things. So it doesn't matter at all what anyone else says, b/c they know what works for them and they look for that. This is why one HAS to go through those steps James lays out. You have to demo trade the process of learning the concepts put forth here. Once you have 3 months of that successfully, you will know things that work and don't and now you have the "start" of a potential method/plan that you can now trade into the future. Otherwise one gets stuck in the limbo. You can even trade and make money, but have ZERO confidence in what you trade. I can remember this part of my trading. It was extremely frustrating. After I won, it was the feeling of "was that just luck". And I mean this lasted months. I finally realized it that I knew what I was doing, but my trading rules weren't concrete enough for me. I needed more structure. Structure means different things to different people.

I just thought I would throw that out there
Best

Mike
  • #26,156
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:20am Apr 5, 2009 11:20am
Quoting Nanook438
Hey group-
I see a pin bar on the EURGBP H-4 poking down through a 50% fib from a higher time frame. (See chart if it attached correctly.)
Enter long @.9103
SL= .9065
1/2 out @ first S/R level of .9165
Daily & weekly trend looks down so this would be a counter trend trade and short lived.
Any thoughts/ comments / what did I miss so far?
TIA
Hey Tia

Careful here, that isn't a pin that is a neutral bar. When the open and close are near the middle of the bar(you can tell when you have noses of equal length sticking out also). That shows indecision and can often be mistaken for a pin.

-Mike
  • #26,157
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:29am Apr 5, 2009 11:29am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Tia

Careful here, that isn't a pin that is a neutral bar. When the open and close are near the middle of the bar(you can tell when you have noses of equal length sticking out also). That shows indecision and can often be mistaken for a pin.

-Mike
Hey Mike-
Thanks for the heads up. Trying to work on the j16 method.
(TIA meant "thanks in advance" not to be confused with Tia in the above posts)
  • #26,158
  • Apr 5, 2009 11:58am Apr 5, 2009 11:58am
Quoting Nanook438
Hey Mike-
Thanks for the heads up. Trying to work on the j16 method.
(TIA meant "thanks in advance" not to be confused with Tia in the above posts)
haha sorry about that
  • #26,159
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:14pm Apr 5, 2009 12:14pm
Hi Guys
The NZD; CHF; and CAD /JPY crosses all have BUOB and have all closed above key resistance levels on the weekly.
How would the potential break-out be played here according to the J16 method?
Wait for a re-trace to test resistance and a move higher or just place a buy order above the highs?
I am very clear on how to trade pin-bars but not so sure about break-out strategies. Seems that break-out trades are not favoured in this forum
Thanks in advance
  • #26,160
  • Apr 5, 2009 12:40pm Apr 5, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting daveadamsbds
Hi Guys
The NZD; CHF; and CAD /JPY crosses all have BUOB and have all closed above key resistance levels on the weekly.
How would the potential break-out be played here according to the J16 method?
Wait for a re-trace to test resistance and a move higher or just place a buy order above the highs?
I am very clear on how to trade pin-bars but not so sure about break-out strategies. Seems that break-out trades are not favoured in this forum
Thanks in advance
Hey there,

In general, with every price action bar, the stop goes at the other end of the bar and the order goes at the breach of the bar with a small buffer to signal it's completely broken. The bigger the timeframe the bigger the buffer. There are more aggressive ways to play these involving a more aggressive entry on the retrace into the bar, or a reduced stop size, but it's not a good idea to try those until you're comfortable with the other way. Also, traders like James16 and mbqb11 who have a lot of experience play the bars conservatively as I described originally. So the more aggressive way doesn't necessarily lead to more profits. In fact, it's often the other way round.

We tend to look for bullish outside bars at lows and bearish outside bars at highs to signal reversals. Which is why I won't be playing these bars. That doesn't mean they won't work but I look for high probability trades and these BUOB bars are more reliable at swing lows.

That's the beauty of this method. Once you know the basics of identifying a good bar and understanding side to side support and resistance, then you can use James16's price action methods to build your own strategy, perhaps even taking a system that didn't work for you before and adding a PA element to it. It really is powerful. Everyone here trades so differently, all using the same basic principles. But they all started the same way, building from the basics up.

Which is why in my experience, playing BUOBs at lows is a good way to go first, before learning to use them as continuation bars. I tend to lean towards beig more conservative and always ask, as mbqb11 taught me, "could I get my money in better elsewhere?" In this case the answer for me would be 'yes'.

Again, just my view and opinion on how I would look at them. The joy of this thread is that there are so many different perspectives and a very healthy lack of ego. Most people will help you out.

Good luck if you decide to play them. I'll be watching them with interest.
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