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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #26,121
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:34am Apr 4, 2009 11:34am
Quoting bakko85
Attached below there is also a chart about the PIN on Eur/chf, glad to read your opinion, i really don't know what to do and how to give it a value (A? B? C?)
So they are not the "Best" setups that we look for, are they "Good" setups?

Hard to say.

One rule of thumb (for me) is that Price Action can also be used to gauge the trend. Meaning that if we see Bullish PA in uptrend and Bearish PA in a downtrend could mean that the trend is continuing.

So trading these PA setup formations can be risky and should be managed very carefully.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,122
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:41am Apr 4, 2009 11:41am
Quoting Jduester
Exits all come down to a few things.
1. See above quote.
2. Test a bunch of different exit strategies and see which generate the best profit for least risk....
Ok, as some of you know I have been testing various exit strategies. I've attached the results. I ended up testing 13 unique strategies. I know this post is going to be longer than I wanted it, but I think everything I write here is necessary to fully explain my rationale. Sorry to bore you if that is the case.

A few notes:
- I have placed 31 trades in Feb/March, so that was my sample size...quite small, but I felt enough to point me in the right direction.
- 26/31 trades reached the first PPZ, 83.9%.
- In many cases, the first PPZ was very close to 0.5R (1/2 of stop loss). I have used 0.5R in many of my potential exit strategies.
- You will note from the excel sheet that my actual results from the trades I took were the worst of all that I tested. This is encouraging. I was using parts of a few of these strategies for my exiting on trades for Feb/March. It shows that by using a specific, written strategy (any of them), I could improve my results.
- You will also note that the % gain on my account doesn't match what I have previously posted. The three reasons for this is 1) I was using 3% risk for trades in February, 2) I was using a different broker in February that didn't allow me to use nanolots (so I was often trading less than my ideal risk and unable to break up orders) and 3) the results assume a constant risk of 2%, NOT compounded based on previous results. I did this to simplify the calculations...

This took a lot of work. I was hoping to do it in about 6-8hours, but it ended up taking closer to 25 hours. However, I learned a lot about my trading in that time. Testing these over each trade I took meant that I was going over each trade many times. This really helped me in terms of what I did right and what I did wrong.

I would highly recommend this exercise to anyone that is searching for an exit strategy. DO NOT USE MY RESULTS. My trades will be different than your trades. You're tendencies will be different from mine.

So what's next? Conclusion?

I have highlighted a few of the strategies in the excel sheet. I will be looking more into those. I will choose one to test for April, with the anticipation to use it for starting to trade live in May (small account).

I will choose the exit strategy with the following phrase in mind, originally posted by Jarroo:

Novice traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to maximize their profits.
Professional traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to reduce/minimize their risk and reduce losses.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10101

I can't end this post without again thanking James16 for starting this thread and for really caring about the future of us newbies. People like that don't come around everyday and I truly appreciate all your words of wisdom in this thread. Of course, I should also thank all the other posters here. Words can't describe where my trading was 6 months ago compared to where it is now, thanks to a confidence enhancement, vision, goal-setting, discipline, prayer, and guidance from you all. AKA, Treat it Like a Business. Long way to go, but a long way traveled already.

Ok, it's all wrapped up. Good day all.

Josh
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Josh_Exit Strategy Testing Results.xls   15 KB | 3,753 downloads
File Type: doc Exit Strategy Testing.doc   28 KB | 4,119 downloads
  • #26,123
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:55am Apr 4, 2009 11:55am
Quoting jarroo
So they are not the "Best" setups that we look for, are they "Good" setups?

Hard to say.

One rule of thumb (for me) is that Price Action can also be used to gauge the trend. Meaning that if we see Bullish PA in uptrend and Bearish PA in a downtrend could mean that the trend is continuing.

So trading these PA setup formations can be risky and should be managed very carefully.
Thanks Jarroo! I agree with you, the location is poor and i'll stay out these trades.
I'll wait for better setup!
  • #26,124
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:00pm Apr 4, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting bakko85
Thanks Jarroo! I agree with you, the location is poor and i'll stay out these trades.
I'll wait for better setup!
I liked your words, "penalty kick without a goalkeeper". That's what an A+ trade is like.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,125
  • Edited 12:16pm Apr 4, 2009 12:03pm | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting Jduester
I've attached the results. I ended up testing 13 unique strategies.
Josh
Nice work, I hope that one day I can write things down like this, but I haven't figured out why I don't do it (well I kind of know...).

What caught my attention is the that Total Return on taking Full Profit on 1:1R on methods 12 & 13 and they are pretty much the simplest way to manage the trade (as far as a lot of calculation).

I'd be curious to see how this all plays out after 50, 100, 200 trades. You plan to keeping this going? Imagine the information you'd have after an entire year of data. Man, I need to get off my hind end and start a spreadsheet with some ideas. I think you may have motivated me. Thank you brother.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #26,126
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:03pm Apr 4, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting Jduester
Ok, as some of you know I have been testing various exit strategies. I've attached the results. I ended up testing 13 unique strategies. I know this post is going to be longer than I wanted it, but I think everything I write here is necessary to fully explain my rationale. Sorry to bore you if that is the case.

A few notes:
- I have placed 31 trades in Feb/March, so that was my sample size...quite small, but I felt enough to point me in the right direction.
- 26/31 trades reached the first PPZ, 83.9%.
- In many cases, the first PPZ was very...
Great work Josh.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,127
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:12pm Apr 4, 2009 12:12pm
[quote=Jduester;2651145]Ok, as some of you know I have been testing various exit strategies. I've attached the results. I ended up testing 13 unique strategies. I know this post is going to be longer than I wanted it, but I think everything I write here is necessary to fully explain my rationale. Sorry to bore you if that is the case.




Great job Josh
  • #26,128
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:48pm Apr 4, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting raczekfx
I'll take it as a good joke.

Happy trading.
You get it But my compliments about your results are no joke, very nice they are!
  • #26,129
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:54pm Apr 4, 2009 12:54pm
Hello everyone,

I am looking for advice on whether to take this GBPCAD daily pin bar trade, it gives me few good reason to take it but I still want some advice from experience trader.

Reason to take this trade:

1. It bounce off 150EMA twice..
2. Double top (two day pin bar top)
3. 38.3% fib level. (very strong RET at this area)

If I set a selling stop at the pin bar low, my first target is 1.8, do u guys think if it is reasonable and a trade that is considerable to take it?


Any help will be appreciate!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #26,130
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:56pm Apr 4, 2009 12:56pm
Excellent Josh, !!!

Quoting Jduester
Ok, as some of you know I have been testing various exit strategies. ,.....

Josh
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #26,131
  • Apr 4, 2009 12:56pm Apr 4, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Nice work, I hope that one day I can write things down like this, but I haven't figured out why I don't do it (well I kind of know...).

What caught my attention is the that Total Return on taking Full Profit on 1:1R on methods 12 & 13 and they are pretty much the simplest way to manage the trade (as far as a lot of calculation).

I'd be curious to see how this all plays out after 50, 100, 200 trades....
I will be continuing to test some of the exits for a while. It is interesting to note #12 and 13. Very simple to manage. #12 limits risk after 0.5R, which is nice too.

Thanks for your comments, Josh
  • #26,132
  • Apr 4, 2009 1:12pm Apr 4, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting bakko85
Ok, here is my post with personal ideas for the week.

We've tons of weekly BUOB on the yen crosses; what do you think about them? I don't think they are all tradeble, i personally like that on Eur/jpy.

I see also a well formed BUOB on Aud/usd (weekly), off an important PPZ. But on my chart i've also a PPZ at about 0,73 (just above the high of the buob) and the buob is not at a swing low.

Attached below there is also a chart about the PIN on Eur/chf, glad to read your opinion, i really don't know what to do and how to give it a value (A?...

Hello bakkos85,

It might not be a good cherry to pick since there are so many RET at top of the pin bar entry (if we use classic) and the stoploss is wider than the potential profit. You should check the daily chart since the 200EMA was quite a strong floating RET before. If you pick it, try to move the stoploss to breakeven if there is profit.

It is just my opinion.

Thanks!


Pipiingmama
  • #26,133
  • Edited 2:07pm Apr 4, 2009 1:56pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello everyone,
I am looking for advice on whether to take this GBPCAD daily pin bar trade, it gives me few good reason to take it but I still want some advice from experience trader.
Reason to take this trade:
1. It bounce off 150EMA twice..
2. Double top (two day pin bar top)
3. 38.3% fib level. (very strong RET at this area)
If I set a selling stop at the pin bar low, my first target is 1.8, do u guys think if it is reasonable and a trade that is considerable to take it?
Any help will be appreciate!
I'm still learning, but I like this chart (never look at it before). I noticed we have 1.83 Round Number and PPZ area (Pin pierced it) and 1.76 Round Number looks like strong support. You can also see price bouncing in this area. It is a pretty good range if it keeps going from top to bottom (700 pip range). You can see that almost all the similar PinISH (not all are pins, but they all basically stop at the 1.83) previously broke back down to 1.76. NOW that doesn't mean it will do it again this time, but if it was me I'd trail and target the 1.76 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-02-22-gc-d1.gif Size: 29 KB
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #26,134
  • Apr 4, 2009 6:00pm Apr 4, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I'm still learning, but I like this chart (never look at it before)....
Of course just my conservative take, but this pair has been choppy for awhile now which means bouncing is not unlikely. So with a pair that is as volatile as gbp/cad can be plus a generally higher spread. You gotta be careful trading into the area you are. Also this second bar is NOT a pin(has a higher low and a lower low), so it is more of a beraish outside bar with a bad close). I never try to talk people in or out of a trade, just giving it from my viewpoint. Summary = get stop to b/e asap if you do venture into one that looks like this. I would never trade a situation like this personally.

Hope you all are having a good weekend

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,135
  • Apr 4, 2009 6:21pm Apr 4, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting mbqb11
Summary = get stop to b/e asap if you do venture into one that looks like this. I would never trade a situation like this personally
Mike
Amazing how a few lines can change the whole picture. It does seem less attractive of a trade.

Thank You.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #26,136
  • Apr 4, 2009 7:55pm Apr 4, 2009 7:55pm
How do you get the big price number in your charts?



[quote=LasVahGoose;2651274]I'm still learning, but I like this chart (never look at it before). I noticed we have 1.83 Round Number and PPZ area (Pin pierced it) and 1.76 Round Number looks like strong support.
Attached Image
  • #26,137
  • Apr 4, 2009 8:24pm Apr 4, 2009 8:24pm
[quote=goldbird22;2651449]How do you get the big price number in your charts?

Here ya go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Magnified Market Price.ex4   3 KB | 759 downloads
File Type: mq4 Magnified Market Price.mq4   2 KB | 803 downloads
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #26,138
  • Apr 4, 2009 8:39pm Apr 4, 2009 8:39pm
thank you

quote=LasVahGoose;2651463]
Quoting goldbird22
How do you get the big price number in your charts?

Here ya go.
  • #26,139
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:31pm Apr 4, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting raczekfx
it's simple..
people get brainwashed everyday by ads, TVs, useless news stations, which only feed fear and chaos into people's brains (or what's left of them). These days it's so easy to manipulate people, it's really scary. If it was mandatory for citizens to 'unplug' their brains for 15 min every day and spend this time on either meditation, concentration or simply relaxation, guess what would be the turn out at the poll stations.....

It would be ZERO. No one in their right mind would go to the polls, because people would see right through those...


Genius
  • #26,140
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:29pm Apr 4, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting Jduester
Ok, as some of you know I have been testing various exit strategies....
You're oozing diligence Josh

WIsh you all the best!

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: award_brilliant_line.jpg Size: 121 KB
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