AUD/USD

I am closing my longs and trying a short on recent highs at 0,7095

damn I was too early....

very good day for the AUDUSD, who managed to overcome the recent 0,7095 and made a new high at 0,7228 though the main target at 0,7270 has not been reached yet

I made the old mistake and tried to anticipate the trend by opening a short on last highs.
The rise was fast (maybe too fast), but main trend is strong here.
So early for shorts.

Now I see support around 0,714 and 0,7080, whose levels should be good to build new longs for the above mentioned aim

fammira, so let me get this straight - are you short or long now? I thought you said you reversed a long into a short @ 7095, now you are claiming it's a good idea to go long below 7140? I really see no logic in your posts, buddy. At best, they're random, at worst - you're giving newbies dangerous advice.

FWIW, aussie is heavily overbought and has been so for quite some time, perhaps more so than any other currency at the moment. I am looking for the 6500-6600 range in a week or two timeframe. Keep building longs though, if so inclined.

Daily looks like trying to catch up with G/J amd A/J - correlated pairs but I am short anyway in the short term from 7148.

I am short but I can admit my mistakes, differently from you calling shorts from 0,62

those were great advices for newbies, right?

everyone can just scroll back over this thread and read your posts from the end of Febuary to realize it.


that's all, stop it now

I am more than willing to admit my own mistakes when I make them. But post a quote where I suggest shorting from 0.62 - I don't recall saying anything like that. And even if I did, with sound MM and much longer time frames, it is not necessarily bad advice. One might have said shorting EU @ 1.48 last summer was crazy - and look where we are now.

I have yet to see anything more specific than "buy aussie on equity rallies, then short at the high of the day" from you. Do you not use charts at all?

you serve it to me on a silver plate, since you seem quite sure of everything.

Jan 29, 2009 16:47
I have a resting order to get in short @ 0.6570. If the market does indeed turns as ugly as it looks now, the bottom will fall off this thing and it will slide all the way down to 10-30 zone today, at the very least. Also don't forget the impact the monstrous rate cut by RBNZ on Wednesday; it's now RBA's turn and Aussie will be under a lot of selling pressure between now and next week.
(AUD went then up from 0,63 to 0,678 in the 1st week of february 09)

Feb 12, 2009 7:36
Wow, just look at these numbers - aussie is doomed now, for sure!


Mar 3, 2009 10:50
LOL, this is a classic bull trap - the rate hold is meaningless when the world equity market sentiment is so negative! Also, they will cut again soon anyway - just read the statement between the lines.

Every week something somewhere implodes - this week it's AIG, last week it was Citigroup, next it's automakers' turn... or something like that. AU is going to 0.61 in the next few days.


Mar 18, 2009 14:58
Well, the past week has made me question everything I know about trading. Maybe a 900 point rally in 6 trading days is normal for markets? Maybe a severe recession can be brought down by a few key public and private sector officials making encouraging comments in the media? Maybe a tiny uptick in new housing construction is a clear signal of an impending recovery?

Maybe, but highly unlikely. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that new lows are in the cards soon.
(AUD up from 0,63 to 0,70 in two weeks time)

Apr 1, 2009 3:37
Actually, this is as high as the pair will be in the coming days, IMHO. A great shorting opportunity. (0,686 NDR...)

Apr 1, 2009 19:01
What are you even talking about? How do you gauge that tone is improving? Whose tone, anyway - talking heads on financial networks?


I think this is enough and we close it here.
And please don't add you are using a century time frame.
If you don't like my comments, my ideas, my trading style, the charts I never post, you can criticise me every day, I don't mind, as long as I am here to learn and I have much to learn from you and all the others...but you are not obliged to read my posts or follow them.

Actually there's nothing bad in being contrarian as you often are, we all aware of the fact that economy is still weak but you know very well that markets do anticipate events.
If and when they will realize economy is not really recovering (yesterday markets almost ignored a quite bad US NFP and that's another bullish sign), then I will agree on the huge short opportunity.

Talking back to AUDUSD, I also think is short term overbought, and Australia is cutting rates next week.
Problem is that once again I am not sure this will be bearish for the australian dollar, as the market could see this coming cut as the last one over a long period and give AUDUSD another boost.

I luckily managed to turn my short into small gains in the fast swing under 0,71 yesterday, and then opened a smaller short in the 0,7135 area waiting for the rate cut next week.

News
The Australian dollar has rallied above 72 US cents, its highest level in three months

AAP

April 03, 2009 11:38am


THE Australian dollar marked a fresh three month high on Friday after rising above 72 US cents in morning trading.

The local currency hit 72.28 US cents around 11.17am AEST, building on a rally that began overnight after measures announced at the Group of 20 meeting in London to restart the global economy.

It was up 1.97 US cents from a local close of 70.31 US cents on Thursday, after opening the Friday session at 71.58 US cents.

It was the highest level in the currency since the first week of January when it peaked at 72.68 US cents.

The jump came after the Australian stock market soared almost two per cent after the open, following gains made in offshore markets build on a spike in optimism after by the G20 leaders summit.

Kinetic Securities chief economist Clifford Bennet said the Australian dollar had a ``great rally'' and was expected to build on its gains.

"Our medium term target remains 79 US cents," he said.

"We have had 69 and 79 US cent targets all year on the expectation of the world economy doing better than consensus expectations and Australia having a momentary recession only."

In London, world leaders agreed to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the International Monetary Fund and trade finance and pledged to spend $US5 trillion ($7.17 trillion) on the global economy by the end of 2010.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said on Friday that all the measures discussed during the meeting would support global growth and benefit Australia.

"Any measure, globally, which further supports growth in jobs is very important for Australia because it assists the stimulus that the Australian government has put in place to support growth and jobs," he said.

Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton said on Friday that financial markets were upbeat about the steps announced in London.

"The idea that the world is on the road to recovery and perhaps we are going to pull out of this quicker than expected has really encouraged demand for growth-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar," she said.

Hi all Aud in my view

0.7267 is the ppz area and double top, I'll watching this area closely to entry short

profit taking could be the theme of next week, since Australia is surely cutting rates next week.
It's fair enough to mention that even with a cut, investors are favoring AUD due to the higher interest rates and the fact that Australia never really seemed to have entered the big recession US and Europe are experiencing.

China might keep it up with the old propaganda that is going out of recession already, living here I believe this is political strategy rather than reality.
I am curious to see chinese macro data for the coming month...my opinion is still that we will see a W shaped recovery, starting from here to the rest of the world.
In any other environment, news that 663k people lost their jobs in a single month would have been extremely bad for the markets, that still reacted positively recovering from the lows.
That's why I still think the optimism could keep fueling risk aversion currencies on the long run.

Though the US$ is still quite week, I agree with your view, on the short term I am selling AUD with a small position, and would try to add once the target of 0,7270 will be hit.

on the daily candle chart thread hussin naiji posted two interesting charts for our pair analysis,

thank you hussin!

hi all this is my view and plan trading for this aud/usd

cheer

hi!

interesting comment, I do agree, we might see a first try on the closer and strong resistance at 0,726, followed by a pullback to the support in the 0,6970 - 0,70 area before a new try for higher targets

RBA is cutting rates on Tuesday, maybe a pullback could come between Tue and Wed sessions?

We perhaps have to learn the hard way but you can hellp us. I has three good trades. Then remember I went short recently lost 156 pips. I am not dealing with it well. To hear you swapping opinions is one thing but what you say really matters to me. We should all work together to get the best result which is to make some profit... Can I ask for advise..

A forum is essentially an instrument of cooperation to me.
But when you are criticised for every opinion or word you express, then you cannot be passive and accept, since this is in fact the worst way to cooperate.

I'll keep trying to give my view here daily.
According to my experience the best advise I can give you is to limitate the risk but also to be patient.This way you are often rewarded!

My comments on this pair in the last two months were mostly based on a long strategy, which I still believe is valid for AUD.
This does not mean it will always and straight go up, and going short for a pullback on overbought conditions would make some sense.

On the longer term, I still think that 800 - 1000 pips towards north can be seen on AUDUSD, unless next months data will tell us economy is not recovering as much as investors are hoping now.

and nice bullish stretch out towards 76-77 out of the gate.

TK

Sorry fammira, but I NEVER called to short from 0.62.

As for the current situation, I actually see a triple top on the daily, going all the way back to October. See attached image. Now, let's face it - the world economies are FAR deeper into shit now than they were back then. I actually see most central banks cutting rates close to 0, and sliding to printing money before all this is over just like the Fed, even though they're still in denial about it.

let's watch ahead.

I am currently short and ready to add at 0,727 with a stop in case of new highs.
Long term my bullish view is still intact.

hi all here aud updated