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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #25,801
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:47am Apr 2, 2009 5:47am
I remember reading somewhere that a double high can be a continuation signal.

I watched this eurjpy trade break and offer up 100+ pips.

I wonder, does this sort of thing happen regularly?

Tony
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  • #25,802
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:55am Apr 2, 2009 5:55am
is anyone still int he us/cad trade??
i closed 2/3 at +25 rest out at BE
back in at the retrace to the break price.managed to get 1% on with 20 pips stop. closd 1/2 for +46 moved stop to BE.. waiting again..
eu/nz short just triggerd as im typing @2.3130???
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,803
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:57am Apr 2, 2009 5:57am
Quoting ghous
I get to bear such trades once every few months,

Just as I mentioned I would do, I moved my stop to BE once we saw 14420, price intentionally moved to stop out a stupid trader in a stupid part of the world named "Ghous" (Oh and BTW it's Boss, only the B get's replaced by a G...it's the closest for you native English speakers. lol!) and then rocketed to the moon...

The best part is I was smarter than this arrogant PA and did'nt let it take any thing out of the pocket.

I would absolutely love to congratulate anyone who's still hanging...
I'm still in there Ghous.....stop has been moved to 1.2604 now to lock in +300 pips
  • #25,804
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:58am Apr 2, 2009 5:58am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
is anyone still int he us/cad trade??
i closed 2/3 at +25 rest out at BE
back in at the retrace to the break price.managed to get 1% on with 20 pips stop. closd 1/2 for +46 moved stop to BE.. waiting again..
eu/nz short just triggerd as im typing @2.3130???
Hi mate,

Yes....I'm in this trade. 1/3 closed out at 1.2500 for +59 pips and stops on the remaining two lots moved to BE to let it do its thing.
  • #25,805
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:00am Apr 2, 2009 6:00am
Quoting ghous
I get to bear such trades once every few months,

Just as I mentioned I would do, I moved my stop to BE once we saw 14420, price intentionally moved to stop out a stupid trader in a stupid part of the world named "Ghous" (Oh and BTW it's Boss, only the B get's replaced by a G...it's the closest for you native English speakers. lol!) and then rocketed to the moon...

The best part is I was smarter than this arrogant PA and did'nt let it take any thing out of the pocket.

I would absolutely love to congratulate anyone who's still hanging...
lol Ghous.

We are the retrace victims ;]
Need to work on trade management... i see price on h4 eur/chf going down now. I bet it will shake some buyers out and then go even higher.
  • #25,806
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:01am Apr 2, 2009 6:01am
Quoting tehuringa
Hi mate,

Yes....I'm in this trade. 1/3 closed out at 1.2500 for +59 pips and stops on the remaining two lots moved to BE to let it do its thing.
nice one. its dinner time in uk so im off for mine.
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,807
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:09am Apr 2, 2009 6:09am
Man, this thread is crazy

I just wanted to post a setup and I had to read past almost 100 posts.

The whole living off trading / required amount discussion always comes around again and I am always shocked again that people seem to always forget the tax, insurance, bad year, x-factor things each time. You can't assume an outcome ahead of time, just as you cannot assume that every USD/EUR/CAD/AUD whichever earned you're allowed to keep 1:1 in a country with a government.

And a really, really brief word about those that can make small (20-50k) accounts work for them as a living - my biggest respect to those who can, but imho they will have a degree of experience and skill that's just quite a bit removed from those who could with no magic learn how to make a double digit income from simple stuff nonetheless.
To me, assuming them as normal is like assuming that everyone can be a Mozart in terms of music. Not that those kind of people don't exist or aren't born; it's just that assuming the whole "anyone can do it!" concept applies is completely off the mark imho.


As for the setup: I hope it will be good examples of why PA can reduce complexity.
I love the fact that you can look at all the folks that go on and on about about this news event and that, all the fundy headlines and facts, laugh or shake your head, perhaps sigh or perhaps just raise an eyebrow, place your orders, make your pips and completely ignore all the noise that it really is.

Jeff in particular has proven that you can literally that way make money while you're sleeping

IB off s/r (fraud claim protected thanks to pre-close and post close snapshots of the trade and snapshot of fill):
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #25,808
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:20am Apr 2, 2009 6:20am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting TiaForex
I wanted to add something to the account size/potential return discussion.
By taking the 2-3 slam dunk trades a month Jim is promising you a method that can produce a 95% win rate. Which means on a large account you'd rarely go into drawdown, you'd make good money, and you'd have plenty of time for fishing...
Another great post

I think people are still looking for mechanical answers to dynamic problems, MM R:R etc should be based upon the expect returns of the system not the trade, if you look at mathimatical calcs like kelly criterion you can see the reason behind this.

If we trade the Dib's system (1h IB) we have a high expectancy of only achieveing a BE trade (no loss, no profit), the system is designed around this so therefore in order to trade the high number of trades needed to find the runner, we need to use tight MM.

Now when we look at J16 ( still reading it) we see results like 80-95% winners - this results in minor drawdowns so our MM can be more fluid to suit our trading as we develope and achieve these results, I find that R:R is irrelevant to the PA setup when achieveing these results, we may start with a 120pip sl and a tp1 of 40pips (each trade makes a small gain), but we expect it to get there 80% of the time (4 out of 5 trades) and then the rest is moved to BE (just one version of managing the trade) - what this means to me is that our system has a higher than 1:1 return ratio, now over time i may find an average to my results, i can then adjust my % per trade to suit a 1:1 average and increase my initial entry % from 1% to 1.5% per trade - this is based only on my expected results to BE, not the account % increase, as we move on and find we get to 90% we find that we can look to trade upto 2.5% per trade, this also increase are account % win factor.

now all that probably makes no sense to you lot, but it works in my head.
  • #25,809
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:42am Apr 2, 2009 6:42am
Quote
Now when we look at J16 ( still reading it) we see results like 80-95% winners - this results in minor drawdowns so our MM can be more fluid to suit our trading as we develope and achieve these results

Everyone(not personal / not addresssed just at you MPP) should keep in mind that a possibility shouldn't lead to an assumption and that as MPP wrote, you need to suit your parameters to YOUR trading.

I know a lot of people who read things like 80%+ will simply say hey, why not use 10% risk then, can't lose, right? (I am imagining a lot of heads of other folks nodding at this juncture for having seen this very thing, too)

High win / low loss is just one approach.
You can just as well use a more trailing oriented approach with less, but bigger winners, which will shape your curve differently.
Any discretionary based approach can't just be assumed to produce anything. YOU might or not do or achieve things; the method or approach is just that, a method and can be shaped and integrated in many ways.

It will still be you that is tasked with actually doing it and producing results.

Why do I bring this up?
Not just to stave off the "10% a trade" folly.
One thing I've noticed during a lot of "planning phases": I think a lot of folks make the mistake of spending a lot of time on theorizing about things instead of taking small ideas, holding them against reality and verifying/falsifying and steadily progressing as they go.

Don't spend too much with an idea on paper; hold it against the chart and then try to reproduce it in a realtime environment, then see what that does for / to you. Adapt and change as you go, but settle on something eventually and then just perpetuate that.
IMHO a better investment than never deciding on(system hopping or constant readjustment) or enacting(lots of threads, notes, posts and thoughts, but little time spent on actual back- and forward testing) anything.

Don't get me wrong; plans are a must. It's just that I sometimes get a feeling of this "dreaming and wanting" instead of "acting and dealing" and that vibe usually comes only if you are still wobbly about where you really want to go and unconvinced. And although conviction can only come from adaption and experience, you need to often start with a leap of faith and actually just investing yourself in something and seeing how it goes.

My personal opinion only.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #25,810
  • Edited 6:54am Apr 2, 2009 6:51am | Edited 6:54am
Half out at 2550, rest sleeps at b/e. waiting for close of 15 minute at 2500... looks rly hard... still looking for 1.2400 ...
Resistance is futile.
  • #25,811
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:55am Apr 2, 2009 6:55am
crazy swings today . . . best to sit back and enjoy the circus show . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #25,812
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:56am Apr 2, 2009 6:56am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
this is something i have my eye on right now. input would be apreciated. thanx
nice beob with div on both rsi and macd. nice location.ppz on daily tf and 50 fib.
speaking of EMAs notice how the 50 and 200 on my charts are widening to the downside, nice bearish action supporting the short imo.
jon
I would view this bar as a Bearish Engulfing Bar, as the body of the bar encompasses the whole body of the previous bar. A Bearish Outside Bar needs a higher high and a lower low of the previous bar. These types of bars should be looked for at swing highs, rather than the swing low where this one is located. Therefore this would be a no trade for me.

Best,
Chris
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  • #25,813
  • Apr 2, 2009 6:59am Apr 2, 2009 6:59am
us cad...second 1/2 stopped. its forming a beob 4htf.closes in 2 mins on my feed. concidering another entry.
eu/nz...stopped
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,814
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:07am Apr 2, 2009 7:07am
Quoting Chris P
I would view this bar as a Bearish Engulfing Bar, as the body of the bar encompasses the whole body of the previous bar. A Bearish Outside Bar needs a higher high and a lower low of the previous bar. These types of bars should be looked for at swing highs, rather than the swing low where this one is located. Therefore this would be a no trade for me.

Best,
Chris
thanx for your input Chris, it did actualy close a beob on my feed(check my post) but they are good points you make about them being played at swing highs.
thanx jon
EDIT:attached PA file which i got from this thread to save confusion for anyone as to how beobs etc should look.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf price action.pdf   45 KB | 862 downloads
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,815
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:11am Apr 2, 2009 7:11am
The USD/CAD pinbar created a tug-of-war battle in my brain. When I got home from work last night I read this forum as usual and saw a couple of posts regarding the USD/CAD pinbar. I then looked at my chart and decided that it was a good opportunity after performing my rookie analysis. The pinbar had bounced off of a nice PPZ, had fib confluence, we recently had a BEOB on the weekly chart and there seemed to be a decent amount of space.

I logged into my trading account and placed an order to sell @ 1.2656 with first TP @ 1.2510 and second TP @ 1.24. I felt more confident about this setup than I have with maybe 90% of my previous trades. It was at least a B or B+ setup, I thought to myself.

I came back to this forum a few hours later and saw a post from one of my forex heroes pointing out some reasons to stay out of the trade that were not evident to me previously. I immediately canceled my order.

Then a while later, a few members of this forum whose opinions I respect a great deal posted that they were in on the trade. I then stared at my chart for a while and decided that I was going to place the order again.

I thought for a few minutes (still looking at the chart) and decided that the 1.25 area was a very powerful PPZ and that it would be difficult to reach my second profit target. I also was thinking that it would be nicer if there was more space between the bottom of the pinbar and the 1.25 region. I changed my mind yet again and made the final decision that this was not an A+ setup and would wait for something nicer.

Besides, I caught a piece of the action from the USD/CAD weekly BEOB and the EUR/JPY pinbar recently. March was a good month and there will probably be better opportunities in April than this pinbar.

I awoke this morning to see that USD/CAD bounced off of the 1.25 region just as expected. Normally, when I stay out of a trade and price behaves as expected, I am disappointed with myself. Typically, I will question myself for missing opportunities and maybe put myself in a situation where I am more likely to make a bad decision on the next trade in order to avoid missing the next one. This time, however, I was happy to see the outcome. Price reached the expected point and seems to be turning around as expected.

I believe I have had my first AHAH moment. I can't thank the folks here in this forum enough. The posts from the past day alone have been loaded with valuable info that could save a rookie from financial self destruction.
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  • #25,816
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:16am Apr 2, 2009 7:16am
Quoting PipGator
The USD/CAD pinbar created a tug-of-war battle in my brain. When I got home from work last night I read this forum as usual and saw a couple of posts regarding the USD/CAD pinbar. I then looked at my chart and decided that it was a good opportunity after performing my rookie analysis. The pinbar had bounced off of a nice PPZ, had fib confluence, we recently had a BEOB on the weekly chart and there seemed to be a decent amount of space.

I logged into my trading account and placed an order to sell @ 1.2656 with first TP @ 1.2510 and second TP @...
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,817
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:19am Apr 2, 2009 7:19am
Quoting mbqb11
What's wrong with having your normal day job and then trading a medium size account to supplement that income, or just grow it on the side so that one day it will be big enough if you decide to trade full time.
When I eventually go live I will consider my trading account as a "self directed" retirement account. I think about risk size in terms of poker terms in that my risk % is akin to the Big Blind. When I consider that I only need 1 to 2 BB's a month it helps me to be more patient. I was planning on taking the EURCHF 2 day pin last night, I even initiated the trade. But I had a great deal of stress involved with it, to the point where I reflected back on my last two trades which felt so much different. I asked myself is this an A+ trade and I immediately answered NO. So I canceled the trade and felt relieved.

Now as it turns out today I would currently be at BE and possibly banked a few pips, but that's fine. When I get to the point where most of my close call
non-trades are profitable, then that will mean to me that I'm getting closer to my goal. Last month was a 3xBB month and I'm not in a rush to give those pips back .
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #25,818
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:21am Apr 2, 2009 7:21am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
thanx for your input Chris, it did actualy close a beob on my feed(check my post) but they are good points you make about them being played at swing highs.
thanx jon
EDIT:attached PA file which i got from this thread to save confusion for anyone as to how beobs etc should look.
My bad, just realised you were basing your trade off of the 4h chart rather than the daily which I commented on.
  • #25,819
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:31am Apr 2, 2009 7:31am
Quoting PipGator
The USD/CAD pinbar created a tug-of-war battle in my brain. When I got home from work last night I read this forum as usual and saw a couple of posts regarding the USD/CAD pinbar.
Hey Pip,

This isn't wholly directed at you. More of a general method of developing a trading skill set.

When I first started out reading this thread I went through the exact same process. Some contributors would be giving reasons to not take a trade and others would then be saying that they were on board.

So what's the best solution? Easy. Do your own analysis of the charts every night. Identify possible trade opportunities as you go through the charts and make a note of the pairs. Then go back to those marked and analyse them more closely. If you feel any meet your criteria for a trade, write out a plan and stick to it. If you're still on demo at this stage then this is the right opportunity to be finding out if you are wrong or right with your analysis. Once you've done this, by all means read this forum and see what others are saying, but stick to YOUR plan. This way you can become confident as your experience grows, but by listening to the noise that can be created by others posts, all be it well intentioned, can lead to making the process of trusting your own judgement a lot longer.

Once the trade has played out, review it and see if there were areas you didn't account for. Make a note of them and be sure to reference them next time you are making a plan.

Best,
Chris
  • #25,820
  • Apr 2, 2009 7:33am Apr 2, 2009 7:33am
Quoting Chris P
*all*
True True...


just closed 2nd half at upbreak of ..2500 profit average 80 pips...

BTW:
I really love this thread
Resistance is futile.
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