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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #25,781
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:26am Apr 2, 2009 4:26am
Quoting Sn3hul4k
Ye, I know that, just when I look at that chart and the shape of that Hammer, I would want a rly great reason to enter. PPZs are not exact, round numbers just adds them more reliability from what I've seen so far and that s/r from daily chart could be placed to the round number almost without noticing any change from daily chart, but zoomed it would change the chances... My opinion only
Ok , I could move SL above 1.8300... the level was taken out as well
  • #25,782
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:33am Apr 2, 2009 4:33am
Quoting markmm
Might find resistance off 200EMA?
my 200 ema is not in the same place??????do you use close prices??
thanx jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,783
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:38am Apr 2, 2009 4:38am
I wanted to add something to the account size/potential return discussion.

Reward is always related to risk. There is a correlation between maximum potential drawdown and maximum return on investment. In a normal situation, as one increases so does the other. If you want 20% a month and you're currently getting 2%, well risking 10 times what you risk could get you there. The problem is it increases your max drawdown and your probability of reaching that drawdown by a lot. And there are all kinds of problems associated with getting out of a hole.

If you have tolerance for that, well then I have a great system for you. It has a one in two chance of doubling your money on a single trade and a (ever so slightly greater than) one in two chance of wiping out completely. It's called roulette. Go bet on black.

One thing I try to say to myself whenever I look at the charts is "I am a professional trader, not a professional gambler". I want high probability setups, not the 'excitement' of a borderline will she/won't she trade. That means passing on trades like the recent GU pinbar that have now broken. I'm not saying anyone was wrong to take that, far from it. Just that my plan is different. I'd rather take A+ trades and widen the number of charts to look at to include stocks futures and commodities too. It's sometimes tough watching the less than perfect trades take off without me, but I am trading my plan and sticking to it.

It really is all about your tolerance. And I think what Jim preaches is that when you have a big account your tolerance is going to be very very different. You may not mind your trade going into a big retrace before breking if your account size is $3000. But what if you had a million dollar account and that retrace was tens of thousands. Would you want that kind of hassle? Remember that when Jim says that with a large account size a few pips can yield a big return, he also means that a few pips against you can be a big loss.

When I first read this forum I wanted to be raczekfx (I still do, Mark ) But I can't run before I can walk. Mark has a lot of experience, traded pure Jim style for a while and still does on one account. And then, after extensive and probably tiresome research and development, he came up with a more aggressive style that he's tested thoroughly and that totally fits his psychology and comfort zone. Trying to emulate his trades before going through that process yourself is in my opinion trading suicide. And I know. I did it.

So it is all about tolerance for risk. And when you have small change on each trade you're more likely to take the iffy ones because, hey what's losing 4 or 5 bucks? But the habits ingrained here will last you a lifetime. And there are many ways to reach that large account size. More people than you realise watch this forum. If you become a senior member and display consistency I am pretty sure someone will approach you before long asking you to trade their money. That brings its own hazards but if you want to, you can take that route.

By taking the 2-3 slam dunk trades a month Jim is promising you a method that can produce a 95% win rate. Which means on a large account you'd rarely go into drawdown, you'd make good money, and you'd have plenty of time for fishing...

I'm no old timer, just getting to a place with this stuff, and as always I like to post here so that my post history can act as a kind of journal. If I'm preaching at anyone here it's me....
  • #25,784
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:38am Apr 2, 2009 4:38am
Quoting daveadamsbds
I,m in the Eur/Chf long and nicely into profit but I've already put my stop at BE.

Why? - nervous about the ECB rate announcement.

Must admit to not doing my fundamentals homework properly before entering this trade- only just realised announcement was today.
Hi Dave you honestly don't need any fundamental hw IMO, yes it could be of some help but when trading higher tfs (I mean daily and above) you really don't need to watch every news that comes out.

That said, moving the stop to BE was the right thing to do. it's up by 50 pips and no way should you let that transform into a draw down, we don't care what could cause it, all we know or should know is that the element of uncertainty will always accompany each and every trade A+ or not.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #25,785
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:40am Apr 2, 2009 4:40am
US/CD Stopped out at B/E!. No loss though!
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,786
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:41am Apr 2, 2009 4:41am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
my 200 ema is not in the same place??????do you use close prices??
thanx jon
Sorry 150ema! Is there a consensus on the emas we should give weight to, for S/R? 365/150, any more 200?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,787
  • Apr 2, 2009 4:49am Apr 2, 2009 4:49am
Quoting markmm
US/CD Stopped out at B/E!. No loss though!
Same here but h4 is giving long setup...10min to bar close
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  • #25,788
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:10am Apr 2, 2009 5:10am
Quoting james16
i think this is one of those trades thats going to give a set of choices.

a profit
a breakeven
a partial profit and breakeven
a loss.

if i had taken the initial break my stop would be at breakeven right now and i would be looking for 2500 to watch and see if it turns quickly.

if it did some comes off the table. if not and it closes under that level im looking for a bigger move.

its 2536 as i post this.

jim
A Breakeven for me. Moving on to better trades later today, if they arrive... Josh
  • #25,789
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:15am Apr 2, 2009 5:15am
A breakeven for me too!! Looks like we all followed James' advice about moving stops to b/e quickly!
  • #25,790
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:20am Apr 2, 2009 5:20am
Quoting markmm
Sorry 150ema! Is there a consensus on the emas we should give weight to, for S/R? 365/150, any more 200?
ahha ,thanx for that, i though the amsterdam fog was getting to me!! lol

this is just my take on the emas,.. i use 50 and 200 EMAs why? simply because over the time iv watched the charts and tried many variations i found i had no use for anything shorter than 50 periods as they hug the price too close to be of any importance to my trading methods( i use the word lightly haha) the 200 seems to be well enough used accross the board to be relevent enough to add to my "confluence list" and of course theres the 365 which is very popular and i also like to use as confluence.
then again if your scalping 1,5,10 min trends im sure the shorter period emas come in handy. swings and rounderbouts.fit them to your trading methods would be my last word . hope this helps
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,791
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:22am Apr 2, 2009 5:22am
Anyone catch this action?
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"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
  • #25,792
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:23am Apr 2, 2009 5:23am
Sorry if this is a newbie question, but I think the answer will effect the win percentage.

Weekly/Daily TF.

Entry: We have entry at break of our trigger bar (PB,BEOB etc), when does the trade become invalid? If it breaks the opposite side? or if there is no break for 4-5 bars?

Exit: Moving stop to BE asap will clearly decrease the percentage of losses, but do most people take some profit at 1:1 or only a next S/R point, (PPZ,EMA etc).

Thanks Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,793
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:27am Apr 2, 2009 5:27am
this is something i have my eye on right now. input would be apreciated. thanx
nice beob with div on both rsi and macd. nice location.ppz on daily tf and 50 fib.
speaking of EMAs notice how the 50 and 200 on my charts are widening to the downside, nice bearish action supporting the short imo.
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #25,794
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:28am Apr 2, 2009 5:28am
Quoting markmm
Sorry if this is a newbie question, but I think the answer will effect the win percentage.

Weekly/Daily TF.

Entry: We have entry at break of our trigger bar (PB,BEOB etc), when does the trade become invalid? If it breaks the opposite side? or if there is no break for 4-5 bars?

Exit: Moving stop to BE asap will clearly decrease the percentage of losses, but do most people take some profit at 1:1 or only a next S/R point, (PPZ,EMA etc).

Thanks Mark
Mark,
Not bad questions. In fact, one's that are often asked on this thread. The entry question goes back to the momentum idea... if price hasn't broken the PA in the next bar, I cancel my order because the momentum must not be there for that signal... For the exits, I think proper due diligence must be used. I and many others will tell you that you must test many exit strategies to see what works for You. Everyone is different... Like James16's post said, that USD/CAD trade could/will result in 4 different results, based on how you play your exit...With that said, I think more traders on this thread are moving away from 1:1 and looking more into the PPZ zones, regardless of where they fall on the R:R spectrum.

Happy trading and testing, my friend,

Josh
  • #25,795
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:34am Apr 2, 2009 5:34am
Quoting ghous
Hi Dave you honestly don't need any fundamental hw IMO, yes it could be of some help but when trading higher tfs (I mean daily and above) you really don't need to watch every news that comes out.

That said, moving the stop to BE was the right thing to do. it's up by 50 pips and no way should you let that transform into a draw down, we don't care what could cause it, all we know or should know is that the element of uncertainty will always accompany each and every trade A+ or not.

Regards,
Ghous.

Hey Ghous.

Are you still in that GBP/USD long?
I feel like ass closing it to early
  • #25,796
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:34am Apr 2, 2009 5:34am
Quoting DanUK
A breakeven for me too!! Looks like we all followed James' advice about moving stops to b/e quickly!
Damn Jim!

Look what you did!

lololololololol...

Right, I'll just stay well asie and stop Bundying () around.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #25,797
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:35am Apr 2, 2009 5:35am
Quoting albchr
As I'm just learning to spot pins, would this be one (GBPUSD) that fits the criteria nicely?

While it only touched my support of 4100, it did poke through my weaker SR a ways. I missed it form as I fell asleep but if this fits, would it still be a good play?

Thank You
Well, at least I identified a nice pin here (this time). Sure wish I had the confidence to have acted on it 46 hours ago. Would have been a nice 400 or so gain.

Still learning...LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #25,798
  • Edited 5:53am Apr 2, 2009 5:35am | Edited 5:53am
Quoting bundyraider
Hope you don't mind if I throw in some thoughts on this one...

Anything below $10000 is certainly 'demo' like to me.

$30000 to $50000 is "Build Account" territory

You can't get away from the fact that anything less than $200000 is making this a big psychological challenge if you are wanting to start to make a living.

...Keyword being "Start".
.....Anything less puts too much pressure on you to earn just to pay the rent/bills and eat. That's too much stress which places you on a highly probable road to failure.

Sure you could...
Or one can work out the required a/c size as follows:

Have a look at your (a) average win rate, (b) average RRR per trade, (c) number of trades per month. You can then work out your average % gain per month. Then YOU have to decide what amount (in money terms) should correspond to that percentage to meet one's trading goals (which could be anything: making a (modest) living, trading as a hobby, saving for a (mega)yacht, earning for the second Boeing etc etc etc).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #25,799
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:41am Apr 2, 2009 5:41am
Quoting bundyraider
But you can see when the sums are done, that $200000 is actually a starter amount, where you aren't buying Ferraris and cool fishing boats for the weekends or supporting a large family comfortably. It get's you an income that get's you by. Depending on mortage etc.

I like your $500,000 minimum, but you can trade as a side line to your normal job with $50000 comfortably.
One doesn't have to deposit the whole amount with the broker to trade large a/c. I.e. for argument sake, if you want to trade say $500K a/c, you can deposit "just" $200-250K with the broker (real cash), but size your positions based on $500K a/c. The leverage comes on top of that.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #25,800
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:45am Apr 2, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hey Ghous.

Are you still in that GBP/USD long?
I feel like ass closing it to early
I get to bear such trades once every few months,

Just as I mentioned I would do, I moved my stop to BE once we saw 14420, price intentionally moved to stop out a stupid trader in a stupid part of the world named "Ghous" (Oh and BTW it's Boss, only the B get's replaced by a G...it's the closest for you native English speakers. lol!) and then rocketed to the moon...

The best part is I was smarter than this arrogant PA and did'nt let it take any thing out of the pocket.

I would absolutely love to congratulate anyone who's still hanging on though...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
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