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Daily candle chart

  • #6,041
  • Mar 31, 2009 1:58pm Mar 31, 2009 1:58pm
Hi everybody,

we donīt trade monthly candle, but we should keep power of the
monthly candles in mind, if we make decison about daily trades.

There are a few hours left, but we see monthly pattern, which we might use for educational purpose.

usd/jpy we might call a three inside up pattern. The march monthly candle shows power of the bulls with large lower wick. But if you compare body of the february candle with march candle, bodys is smaller. You see pressure between bulls and bears. In february bulls are in favor, but now it is a tough fight, with small win of the bulls (This is why march candle is green). This fight might go on in the next month, and this pair is not easy to be traded, because there will be always pullbacks.

Look at the monthly candles at april-august 2008, you see, what I mean. One possibility is a repeat in history.

Tonight is a very importend (of course it is tonight !) fundamental yen news (tankan index), so trade very carefully yen crosses.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,042
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:09pm Mar 31, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting baz
Hussin... welcome back from yur holidays.....now the Team is complete....Hussin,Tony,Peaches.....and aall the normal contributors...and New ones as well !!!

baz
hi baz
thanks . yes now Team is complete
  • #6,043
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:10pm Mar 31, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting daffy
wow, good posts, hussin.

welcome back from your holiday.
hi daffy
i have read your pm. thanks 4 your info
  • #6,044
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:12pm Mar 31, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting desperate
hi hussin

im new to the thread,thank u very much for starting it,its what i like the most about charting

thanks john
hi desperate ,wellcome to you
i hope that this thread wil be useful for you
regards
hussin
  • #6,045
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:13pm Mar 31, 2009 2:13pm
In asia - I have read in a book - the spring and summer are for the bulls, fresh air, flowers, a lot of positive things. This is more a psycholagical part of trading. Winter and autum is for the bears, these are the dark month.

Call it stupid, but I have read this in a book some time ago.

Patterns often are not from the textbook, so what about the monthly
candles of famous (now poor) carry trade eur/jpy and aud/jpy ?

They are not three inside out, nor three outside up, but this pairs look bullish to me. Look at the healthy long bullish bodys, where are the bears ?

We should keep in mind big crises, but we may not ignore this bullish candles from february and january.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,046
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:14pm Mar 31, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting peaches
Hello dear hussin, good to see you back.

desperate, sorry for bad analyses eur/cad. Or should I say, marked is wrong ?

Today we have seen break of trendline on 4 h chart, and a daily bullish
engulfing candle. All this are not signal, not the right time for a short.

I will watch and wait, maybe later a bearish candklestick pattern at 1.673. Sorry no further analyses, I am unlucky with cad pairs.
wow hey peaches
my dear bro,also
  • #6,047
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:19pm Mar 31, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting Bones
Hi Hussin my friend ,V pleased to see you back...
I hope your mother was well and you had a good new year.

Tony
hi Bones my friend , thanks fine
have a more green pips for your with good health for your family
hussin
  • #6,048
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:19pm Mar 31, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting hussin naiji
wow hey peaches
my dear bro,also
Hi dear hussin, nice to meet you, hope you are fine

Looking forward for analyses of candlesticks from you.

Big fundamental crises is over on monthly candles ?
  • #6,049
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:23pm Mar 31, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting mrfxbaling
hello hussin.. easy money for ausd and nusd still valid or not
hi mrfxbaling
you are right
i can not see a pullback for these pair
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  • #6,050
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:29pm Mar 31, 2009 2:29pm
peaches , what is your view ?
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  • #6,051
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:33pm Mar 31, 2009 2:33pm
I scrolled through a bunch of monthly pairs in 10 minutes, and a textbook three inside down for eur/aud is available

But only go short if you trade monthly
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  • #6,052
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:34pm Mar 31, 2009 2:34pm
hi all!
welcome back hussin!

on weekly eurgbp we see bearish dark cloud cover
but on monthly, is this a valid bullish morning star? whether or not, this week im more bullish cable than euro
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #6,053
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:41pm Mar 31, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting hussin naiji
peaches , what is your view ?
This one is tricky because it appears at daily 50 % fibo level (it might only be a rejection of this level, and retrace, maybe). But we should not ignore previous weeks bearish engulfing + todays monthly candle. Looks bearish.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,054
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:48pm Mar 31, 2009 2:48pm
Donīt want to flood the thread, but clear monthly pattern for me is
eur/nzd:

After end of february candle samurai traders enters short, but conservative traders have waited the march bearish engulfing candle for confirmation. Maybe now more traders will jump in short. Looks like its dropping in april.

Good night
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  • #6,055
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:49pm Mar 31, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting peaches
This one is tricky because it appears at daily 50 % fibo level (it might only be a rejection of this level, and retrace, maybe). But we should not ignore previous weeks bearish engulfing + todays monthly candle. Looks bearish.
hi peaches,

i see strong resistance, where you draw the red line
but we see the same pattern on much pairs, in fact its the dollar, i think lately dollar reacts strongly to dow jones, if people move in and out of the dow, is there enough strenght to push the dollar? i dont know.

here is the comparison between cable and euro on daily, here cable seems slightly stronger, with a white hammer, against the euro which got a black high wave?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 090331 D1.png Size: 6 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #6,056
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:53pm Mar 31, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting silverheat
hi all!
welcome back hussin!

on weekly eurgbp we see bearish dark cloud cover
but on monthly, is this a valid bullish morning star? whether or not, this week im more bullish cable than euro
Hi silver,

I donīt think it is a morning star, a morning star appears at bottom of
the trend, this is more in the middle.

But pound is not good to trade, atm, eur/gbp, I would wait for triangle break, or more clear pattern. For me it is simple: no clear pattern = no trade.
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  • #6,057
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:05pm Mar 31, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting peaches
Hi silver,

I donīt think it is a morning star, a morning star appears at bottom of
the trend, this is more in the middle.
yes, thats what i thought

here is why i think the dow has strong force on the dollar, of course from the book hussin mentioned, the way is (if i interpreted it correctly):

crb -> inflation -> dollar -> bonds -> stocks

crb UP, dollar DOWN -> stocks, bonds DOWN
crb DOWN, dollar UP -> stocks, bonds UP

dollar -> crb

dollar BOTTOM <- 6 months -> crb TOP
dollar TOP <- 12 months -> crb BOTTOM

dollar -> gold, fx -> crb

dollar UP -> gold, fx DOWN -> crb DOWN
dollar DOWN -> gold, fx UP -> crb UP

gold <- 4 months avg, 12 months major -> crb

gold BOTTOM <- 12 months -> crb BOTTOM
gold TOP <- 6 months -> crb TOP

but on the charts, the dow made the first move (3), after that dollar chrashed (2) while the dow paused, then dow moved on (1)

i have to look more into it, not much time today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDLFX 090331 W1.png Size: 6 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #6,058
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:16pm Mar 31, 2009 3:16pm
of course the dollar crash was from the trillion, so maybe im totally wrong, and its the other way round, i will find out tomorrow
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #6,059
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:35pm Mar 31, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting peaches
Donīt want to flood the thread, but clear monthly pattern for me is
eur/nzd:

After end of february candle samurai traders enters short, but conservative traders have waited the march bearish engulfing candle for confirmation. Maybe now more traders will jump in short. Looks like its dropping in april.

Good night
hi peaches

on the weekly chart would this be three black crows pattern

thanks john
Attached Image
  • #6,060
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:07pm Mar 31, 2009 10:07pm
http://i653.photobucket.com/albums/u...ade/utlej1.jpg

uptrend ej.. maybe we can 133 today ?
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