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  • #1,441
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:21pm Mar 31, 2009 12:21pm


Anyone seen Dan or Nic.
  • #1,442
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:28pm Mar 31, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting Naws
I was just looking over your eur/jpy trade strat, if I am interpreting it correctly it looks like you continually add on to your position as price moves in your favour, am I correct that you had about 5 open trades by the end of the move!?
If so can you share how you go about your money management with trades like these? For example do you believe in only risking 2 or 3% at any time or do you think its ok to risk more when having many open positions like this?

Also about risk/reward, do you look for a probable target before you enter a trade or...
Naws, I will repeat what I posted earlier which is that I teach the safest, lowest risk trading methods. These must be followed if you are to have any hope of making money in this business. Once you are consistent with this making money hand over fist and doing it in your sleep, then you can step it up and change gears.

What I did on that trade with regard to MM will not be taught or shown on here. Until you are one with price and able to dance with the Queen, then and only then, can this be discussed.

Your TOTAL trades should never exceed 2% to 3% of your account if you wish to survive in this business.

I'm not a follower of R to R and therefore not qualified to talk about it. If you look at my earlier post, you will see that, other than opportunities that price action may throw up, I'm only really interested in positioning myself at the beginning of major swings or trends. Other than targets from chart patterns, which I only use as a guide, I don't think or care about them - I just take what the market gives me.

Naws, you are young in your trading career, so stick with proven MM rules and methods as they will keep you in business. Do not get carried away thinking if you had done this and then did that, for that is the road to ruin.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,443
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:31pm Mar 31, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Just trying to identify those three areas:

Area 1: Support zone and PA (hammer in this case) indicating possible swing low, but downtrend is still there, so it is safer to be selective when picking PA bars for trade entry (I mean using most reliable candle formations in perfect forms).

Area 2:...
Dead on. You got in a few minutes what took me years to find out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,444
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:39pm Mar 31, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Strat/ Nicola

The US/CAD looks interesting on my feed (albeit UK morning time) price right on trend line, I think this is drawn as you said Strat.

Finding support on MA’s and 61 fib, also weekly chart bullish . Appreciate got to wait for candle to finish just observing live screen, so i guess the next daily bar will give us a clue to direction?
The TL I meant was from March 10 and March 12.

The next candle ALWAYS gives us clues, Sherlock!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,445
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:41pm Mar 31, 2009 12:41pm
Strat..what can I say, I'm jumping the gun ...'patience' I know....I need to put this on a post-it onto my lappy! You have permission to slap my wrists! Just got in from work, taking a look now to see how the charts are forming, but I promise I won't do anything until later tonight (UK).... Nicole
  • #1,446
  • Mar 31, 2009 12:55pm Mar 31, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting Baba G


Anyone seen Dan or Nic.
Hey BG, how you doin' today?

Not sure about Nic, haven't seen her since we were last on here?
  • #1,447
  • Edited 2:18pm Mar 31, 2009 1:40pm | Edited 2:18pm
interesting scenerio happening right now to me oon the POUND...

took last weeks pin par(ish) short....sunday/ monday proceeded to break the low putting me into the trade and eventually price rode down to the 1.4100 area were i took some initial profits.....

mondays daily bar however was a perfect pin bar.. there is some potential resistance right above the high of the pin with a 20/50 confluence .....

as such i did not take the daily pin long...due to the resistance and the the simple fact that it would be very weird having two opposite positions on the same currency...

just thought id share....
  • #1,448
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:26pm Mar 31, 2009 2:26pm
Time Frame Selection

I never cease to be amazed that the selection of time frame is never considered in trading discussions. After being told, and then finding out for myself, that brokers, system sellers, auto robot sellers etc., and other scammers target wishful thinking wannabe traders with their M1, M5 and M15 time frames, it is hardly surprising that the majority blow their accounts within weeks, sometimes days.

To just arbitrarily choose a time frame to trade is like choosing the first girl you date to be your wife. For many, that decision is made by the ads that suck you in with their $1200 per day M5 scalping system. There is far more to consider when choosing a time frame to trade.

Jacko’s trading partner, Mark, used to be a broker and has witnessed first hand, the longevity of traders trading short time frames. Their trading life is very short and painful as you would expect for someone sat in front of the one eyed monster all day long trying to wring out 10 pips on M1. Similarly for those on M5 and M15. Just like a revolving door, he has witnessed them come and go. Add into this that many short time frame traders have more than one monitor, sometimes up to five. Is it any wonder that these guys are highly stressed mental wrecks?

For me, the time frame controls your trading destiny. I rank it as high as trading psychology and in fact, that is probably where it belongs.

How many traders consider the impact that time frame has on their profits? I will bet there isn’t one. Consider a trader using a “successful” scalping system on M1 time frame. These guys are looking to make 5 pips or 10 pips at the most per trade. The effort, stress, mental anguish to reward ratio on this is horrendous. When you consider that they are “in the hole” for 2 to 3 pips (spread) the second they put on that trade, it puts tremendous emphasis on the accuracy of exits and entries to come out in profit. To be successful on M1, you have to be in the top 98% of everything – method, entries, exits, psyche, etc.

If you haven’t realized by now, then, the shorter the time frame, the more accurate your method has to be, meaning that there is little leeway in your entries and exits. Miss them by a couple of pips and you are in the red.

Conversely, the longer the time frame, the more leeway there is in both entries and exits. Entries and exits on weekly time frames do not have to be as accurate as those on the daily time frame which in turn, do not have to be as accurate as those on H4 and so on. When we are boarding our train on the daily express, it doesn’t really matter whether we are in the first carriage or the tenth carriage. We all arrive at the final destination with plenty of time (relatively speaking) to get off.

Another factor in time frame selection that I have never seen discussed, or I will bet, thought of, is our personal suitability and compatibility. We must never forget that the markets are energy. We traders are energy. Energy is governed by the Laws of Nature and, as such, can be broken down into different forms, states and matter. One of the properties of energy is it’s vibration and harmonics. The market, and each one of us as traders have vibration and harmonics which revolve around our personal natural frequencies. Yes, like it or not, we are just matter constantly vibrating in everything we do at our natural frequency. The markets are there, always vibrating at their natural frequency.

There is a state called resonance which occurs when two bodies of the same natural frequency come together. What happens then is that these natural frequencies excite each other causing large amplitudes and vibrations which continue to expand and vibrate until they both explode. I have witnessed this many times in my studies and experiments.

What has this to do with time frame selection you are asking? Everything. If you are familiar with the dating service e-harmony, it is the same thing. We are trying to find our partner (time frame) whose harmonics are compatible with ours. We need a partner (time frame) whose harmonics ideally have a sine wave 180 degrees opposed to ours so that their peak harmonic is at the same time as our valley harmonic.

Still lost? In simple terms, you may say that you are going to trade M15 because you know of a method/system on that time frame which is proven to be successful and profitable. Yet, when you trade that system, you cannot get it to work for you, no matter how hard you try. Usually, the harder you try, the more difficult it becomes. There is nothing wrong with the system, it works, it has been proven by others. What is wrong is YOU. YOU are not compatible with that time frame. YOU have to find a time frame which complements YOUR harmonics. Until you work on a time frame that compliments and is compatible with your harmonics, you will never be successful, comfortable or happy.

This has nothing to do with the longer the time frame being the more comfortable for you. It is about matching a time frame that you feel comfortable with, that allows you to trade easier and better with the lowest amount of stress and anguish.

In my case, I know my time frames are Weekly and Daily. I am so comfortable with them that I feel “as one” with them. I would love to trade H4, yet, as soon as I drop down to H4, I get an uneasy feeling, I just don’t feel as confident or as powerful as I do on the daily and weekly time frames. For me to trade H4 would put me at a disadvantage before I even put on a trade. This is exactly what happened when I tried to do M5 and M15.

Pay attention to time frames and find the one which is compatible with you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,449
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:31pm Mar 31, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting pizdun
interesting scenerio happening right now to me oon the POUND...

took last weeks pin par(ish) short....sunday/ monday proceeded to break the low putting me into the trade and eventually price rode down to the 1.4100 area were i took some initial profits.....

mondays daily bar however was a perfect pin bar.. there is some potential resistance right above the high of the pin with a 20/50 confluence .....

as such i did not take the daily pin long...due to the resistance and the the simple fact that it would be very weird having two opposite positions...
Remember what we posted earlier? To expect chop n slop this week due to weekly time frames topping exacerbated by the G20 meetings PLUS NFP due on Friday. Everyone is waiting - including the brokers and MMs who prey on people unsure of what to do.

I have gone flat and will stay flat until resolution of this week.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,450
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:52pm Mar 31, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting strat
Time Frame Selection...
Good piece,when you use this type of font to post,what you say comes from the depth of your heart and i pay special attention,just my observation,thank you
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #1,451
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:58pm Mar 31, 2009 2:58pm
Hi Team Strat
Just to let you know that I'm going to be away on business from tomorrow lunchtime (UK time) until late Thursday evening. So I will catch up throughout when I can. It will be interesting to see how price reacts with the G20 etc. I will still be checking the charts and marking anything I feel is significant. I won't be making any hasty decisions.

Quickly, I see a SL on Daily Gbp/Usd has formed with today's price looking like it will close above the 20 & 50, with fib, but overall the MAs are sideways and flat and Boss is still south. I'll check again later.

Patience is the virtue and the express train will be there for those waiting..!
  • #1,452
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:13pm Mar 31, 2009 3:13pm
I've got nothing new on my radar tonight that i could hang my hat on.

GBPJPY looks bullish closing above the S/R at 141 but everything seems a bit sideways tonight which isn't surprising seeing as the Muppet World Chorus are over here in London for rehersal.

I'm currently long USDJPY from 88 with a target at 100 and stop at BE, short USDCHF from 1.1430 with a target of 1.1300 and stop at BE, and...short CHFJPY on the break of Friday's DBHLC and the weekly shooting star...this has kicked me in the face today i'm sitting on a large drawdown but I AM TRUSTING MY PLAN and going to see how it plays - i took it on WEEKLY and DAILY PRICE ACTION so hey ho, you can't win 'em all.

Dan
  • #1,453
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:21pm Mar 31, 2009 3:21pm
Nicola,

I know you are/were short OIL from last week's shooting star but what do you think of its current level? Neutral doji (?) failing to break a 50% Fib and closing above the DAILY 20...(i've NO knowledge of Oil)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,454
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:26pm Mar 31, 2009 3:26pm
You have got it spot on, Paul. Good lad. There is a big chunk of analysis missing though - support and resistance. It will soon be banging heads with a MAJOR resistance can you see it?

I have 141.80 acting as R (23/03, 05/03, 25/02, 26/02 & 02/01) and S (24/11, 27/10), however as it was broken last Tuesday (24/03) I hadn't given it sufficient weight in my analysis

Also, be a little careful in drawing channels - they can trick the sub-conscious into thinking the wrong things. If you were to draw the channel correctly, you would need a compass - can you see why and what it is telling you?

Hmmm, my sub-conscious has been well and truly fooled by my channel lines, as I can't (yet) see what's wrong with it. I'll keep working on that one today... Anyone else care to give me a clue or two? (Nicola, Grim, Dan, Lance, Bg)

Don't forget the meetings going on this week in addition to watching USDJPY for Yen pairs direction. A small position for a move up to resistance would seem OK.

I omitted to say in my initial post that the stop size is too big for me to consider taking a trade from this PA anyway, but your & Nicolas points about this week are very relevant. What may look half decent on a chart could be obliterated by the G8 crew just down the road and/or NFP at the end of the week. Similarly if EURJPY (your trade) trend is over, there could be a strong correlation with the GBP's (my channel).


Thanks for your feedback & this excellent thread. I can't believe how much I have learned (about my own ignorance) in such a short time. They key thing for me is that I need to increase my confidence, which I am going to do by only trading on a demo account for the next three months, as if I was a total newbie (which to be honest is how I feel, despite spending the last two years in the markets)

Really like the award structure & present rankings, really nice selection of contributors too. Please keep it up everyone

best
Paul

Remember that support and resistance is part of price action

Good job, Paul
  • #1,455
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:31pm Mar 31, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting lordgbengs
Good piece,when you use this type of font to post,what you say comes from the depth of your heart and i pay special attention,just my observation,thank you
Thank you M'Lord.

Are you saying that this small font is easier to read and understand rather than the larger formatted one? If so, that is interesting because I take longer to format, etc., the other.

Is this true for everyone? Please advise. This is important for my future posts. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,456
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:34pm Mar 31, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting strat
Thank you M'Lord.

Are you saying that this small font is easier to read and understand rather than the larger formatted one? If so, that is interesting because I take longer to format, etc., the other.

Is this true for everyone? Please advise. This is important for my future posts. Thank you.
I like colours, big fonts and CAPS ON WHEN ITS IMPORTANT, but that's just me. Whichever way you choose to post is Kool and the Gang.

EDIT: I've been hanging round with Baba all day and i think its starting to rub off!
  • #1,457
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:48pm Mar 31, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting PaulKing

Hmmm, my sub-conscious has been well and truly fooled by my channel lines, as I can't (yet) see what's wrong with it. I'll keep working on that one today... Anyone else care to give me a clue or two? (Nicola, Grim, Dan, Lance, Bg)
Not sure i can be much help to you Paul. I never have and have no plans to use channel lines to be honest (too many lines on my charts as it is!) and i always think its very easy to make trend lines 'fit' to what you want to happen. This is by no means a critisism of you (i'm in no position to do that) just a personal preference and whenever i begin to draw channels or trend lines, they always seem to fit just so perfectly that i'm suspicious.

On GBPJPY, i'd be looking for price to FIND SUPPORT off 141 before looking at a long - its broken through and is closing above both daily and weekly 20 EMA so you may not have to wait long. I know you have various resistance levels above, but i think they are minor compared to 141 at least upto 148)

As for all these meetings this week, i don't know. At least they can't mess things up much worse (he said )
  • #1,458
  • Mar 31, 2009 3:57pm Mar 31, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting AstonDan
I've got nothing new on my radar tonight that i could hang my hat on.

GBPJPY looks bullish closing above the S/R at 141 but everything seems a bit sideways tonight which isn't surprising seeing as the Muppet World Chorus are over here in London for rehersal.

I'm currently long USDJPY from 88 with a target at 100 and stop at BE, short USDCHF from 1.1430 with a target of 1.1300 and stop at BE, and...short CHFJPY on the break of Friday's DBHLC and the weekly shooting star...this has kicked me in the face today i'm sitting on a large drawdown but...
Dan, slow down! You don't have to be trading every day! You still have that M15 mentality that you HAVE to trade. Let it go and LET THE MARKET COME TO YOU.

The trades that everyone searches for are LOSERS. The winners stand out.

You may want to re-think your USDJPY 100 target. Why? All these meetings, end of the month, NFP uncertainty etc. While I said I wasn't sure BOJ had finished dumping the Yen, it was only a gut feeling - nothing more. Remember my quickie USDJPY? I was agonising over a few pips until I realised GREED had overtaken me. While these meetings could send USDJPY to 104 or higher, they could also drive it down and fast - remember Sir Isaac Newton and his apple?

Look at where it has closed today - bang on 99.00. Now look to the left at how many times it was rejected at that price. You are only 1 pip away from an artificial target - is it worth the risk to hang on for an extra pip? I had the same dilemma and felt stupid when I realised what I was doing.

It is all about probability and yes, it could go up but do you want to sacrifice pips in the bag for hope? The guy in the mirror will kill you if you lose his pips!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,459
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:06pm Mar 31, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting strat
It is all about probability and yes, it could go up but do you want to sacrifice pips in the bag for hope? The guy in the mirror will kill you if you lose his pips!


Simple. Straight to the point. That's what i love.
  • #1,460
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:09pm Mar 31, 2009 4:09pm
When I see a price reversal bar after a trend (the longer the better), I jump in to position myself for the trend in the opposite direction. This is a high risk area and so I trade reverse position price action to keep me in or get me out until I see the signs of a trend change. I am about as good at calling tops and bottoms as I was at calling the weather in England.


Hi Strat, been doing a bit of lurking lately myself,
trying to take it in,
i have highlighted something you said above, the "the longer the better" quote, what are you refering to mate, the longer the reversal bar the better, or the longer the trend the reversal bar occurs in???

Also i have highlighted another section, could you explain to me what you mean by reverse position price action,i am not sure whether this means you are looking for things in a reverse way or you are looking for price to reverse , which might mean the original trend is continuing???
cheers
geoff
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