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  • #1,401
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:27pm Mar 30, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting cowboying
Hi Gang
My take on the USD/CHF, the weekly bar seems to be a doji close on my feed, and finding resistance off a 61.8 fib. The daily is right between three MA’s hovering around a strong S&R line and a round number 1.1508.

I think I see an inverted head and shoulders(Trend continuation?) So I would wait for a break out of the shaded box with a good PA bar. Still learning patience on this daily time.
Cowboying,

You have got Dan's disease - colour blind - the 20 is red and 50 is blue! You had me all confused for a minute!

No, your disease is even worse, 1.1508 is NOT a round number - 1.1500 is THE round number.

Apart from that, you did good - a bit of a wonky H&S but there none the less.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,402
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:32pm Mar 30, 2009 6:32pm
I too have been struggling with brother Grimweasels mental image picture and what is a Grimweasel so heres my vote
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,403
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:32pm Mar 30, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Nice candle but trading into Boss 50 & through R at 86.50 and bounced off a previous TL drawn. The BOSS had a negative PB, but traders today have pushed back north. Too near the MA & trading right into R; therefore I shall keep an eye on this one if it breaks tomorrow we could be north or a test and back south.
No, Nicole, No.

That is not a hammer - it has to be at the end of a trend which it isn't and has to be lower than the previous candle which it isn't - there are way better opportunities than this
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,404
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:47pm Mar 30, 2009 6:47pm
As you should know by now, I don’t reply to lurkers and trolls either on the thread or by PMs (unless I can get a kick out of it.)


Back to the PMs. They asked something like, “If you knew it was going to be such a good trade, why didn’t you post it on the thread?”

So, the equally stupid answer is “To keep all the lubbly jubbly to myself!” ...

I had asked this question of Strat when I PM'ed him about something else and I thought in light of this post I would share it.

My quote:
If I can ask a trading question. I took the BEOB on the E/U early last week. I saw it at resistance and thought it a B+ trade. I faded a little heat on Wednesday but caught the break on Thrusday and Friday. I was concerned going into the weekend with G20 and all, so I closed it Friday afternoon. Do you normally adjust your trades for the weekend, or do you keep them as normal and let it go? I worry about gaping over stops and so on...[/quote]

His response:
You did good with your EURUSD trade. I don't worry or even think about it anymore. Why? I have been in both situations - where it goes against me and where it goes with me. It evens itself out over time if you CONSISTENTLY do the same thing. It also stops the little man between your ears from getting involved - the less you gave him, the longer he can sleep.

I also asked his opinion on this:
I took the C/J trade yesterday off the shooting star at resistance on the boss and the DOHLC on the daily. When you are in these multi-time frame trades do you watch both for a sign of an exit, of just keep watching the lower time frame for an earlier out?

I keep thinking with the valid signal on the boss, I should try to catch the longer move and keep my eye on her for the sign.

His response:
You won't be successful mixing time frames. It is OK to use the Daily to get a better entry to trade the Weekly but you have to choose a time frame which will be your base. You will lose out on some really BIG Boss moves if you trade the Boss with daily signals. If you are trading the Boss then only watch the Boss signals - nothing less - but make sure you are also watching the BIG BOSS.

Don't forget that within one Boss bar, there are 5 daily bars each with their own cycles etc. The daily will, most likely, stop you out WITHIN a Boss bar, while the next Boss bar will probably continue with it's (Boss) trend.

This is just like tgs who was trading the Daily with H4 signals and wondering why he kept getting stopped out.

I wanted to post these since as Strat said, trading questions SHOULD be posted in the main thread for all to enjoy, or berate as the case may be...

Lance
  • #1,405
  • Edited 7:02pm Mar 30, 2009 6:59pm | Edited 7:02pm
As you should know by now, I am not interested in competing with any other thread either on FF or anywhere else.

My only interest is to help those who want my help or want to understand what I do and how I do it (if only I knew!).

You may have noticed a few things in the last few pages and it is all to do with Structure. I want to take the learning process to a different level. Ideally what I would like to do is run a file on each of our "family" or "team" and monitor their progress. Until then, I am doing it by "looking" and "listening" to others.

As an incentive to encourage each of you to learn in an orderly and structured manner, I am identifying levels of traders relative to this thread.

You receive a "bronze pick" for showing and demonstrating growth, understanding and progress during any given period. A "bronze pick" is also awarded to a trader who goes out of his way to help a fellow trader or a "pick" of the same metal he or she is currently at. This does not mean that an award will be made each week. It has nothing to do with time.

After receiving 5 bronze picks you become a "Strat Silver Trader"

After receiving 5 silver picks you become a "Strat Golden Trader"

After 5 golden picks you become a "Strat Platinum Trader"

A "Strat Platinum Trader is then eligible to become a "Strat Certified Trainer" subject to approval from myself and Baba G.

The levels established to date are:

Baba G - Strat Certified Trainer

Elitejets - Strat Events Co-ordinator and Strat Crude Trader

AstonDan - 1 bronze pick

All these positions command a 100% increase in salary!

All positive and constructive comments are welcome
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,406
  • Mar 30, 2009 7:01pm Mar 30, 2009 7:01pm
Hi Strat

Sorry about the colours

Also my take on the GB/USD, the Boss is still bearish, The daily is right between two MA’s with the boss 50 holding down price and finding resistance off a 61.8 fib. So as I’m in this trade and practicing trade management (Demo) I would hold on to this one with a stop around the close of the 27th bar (1.4320)

Also like Dan said the hammer (Pin) bars need to be looked at in conjunction with what’s around them, Baba G called it a floater, only practice and patience will get me to see the big picture.
Thanks Strat for your trading summery on the EUR-JAP, this gives me and I’m sure others the confidence to wait for the set up and more importantly plan the trade knowing you have factored in a loss should it be hit knowing you will have bigger wins when a daily trade go’s in your direction.
Long way to go for me but I can see the light at the end of the tunnel or should that the station.
Cheers
Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #1,407
  • Mar 30, 2009 7:10pm Mar 30, 2009 7:10pm
I was just looking over your eur/jpy trade strat, if I am interpreting it correctly it looks like you continually add on to your position as price moves in your favour, am I correct that you had about 5 open trades by the end of the move!?
If so can you share how you go about your money management with trades like these? For example do you believe in only risking 2 or 3% at any time or do you think its ok to risk more when having many open positions like this?

Also about risk/reward, do you look for a probable target before you enter a trade or enter it regardless if you get a good signal? For example would a strong resistance 100 pips away stop you from taking a trade that requires a 200 pip stoploss - so thats less than 1:1 ratio?

sorry for lots of question, others please share your views on mm and r/r too


edit: I like the pick idea, hopefully it will encourage more interactivity within the thread and more quality comments - not that we don't have alot already
  • #1,408
  • Mar 30, 2009 7:26pm Mar 30, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting cowboying
Hi Strat

Sorry about the colours

Also my take on the GB/USD, the Boss is still bearish, The daily is right between two MA’s with the boss 50 holding down price and finding resistance off a 61.8 fib. So as I’m in this trade and practicing trade management (Demo) I would hold on to this one with a stop around the close of the 27th bar (1.4320)

Also like Dan said the hammer (Pin) bars need to be looked at in conjunction with what’s around them, Baba G called it a floater, only practice and patience will get me to see the big picture.
Thanks...
Steve, if you are already short, your stop needs to go a few pips above the high of the hammer type bar.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,409
  • Edited 8:09pm Mar 30, 2009 7:41pm | Edited 8:09pm
The weekly shooting star for crude, coming after the highest price close in 4 months worked brilliantly for crude today which fell 350 pips. We have now closed below the daily 20ema again for the first time in almost a month.
If you are not in already it is hard to enter after such a long daily bar. A retrace might give a better entry with lower risk.
All commodities are priced in US dollars so a stronger dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices. The demand fundamentals for crude are not good and the market views the equity indices as an indicator of demand so any further fall in the indices will help crude down.
Nicola

Attached is US crude chart.
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  • #1,410
  • Mar 30, 2009 7:50pm Mar 30, 2009 7:50pm
Hi Strat

Yep, i was going to put stop on the close of the previous bar of the hammer just above the Red 20 MA. (1.4319) from a open of 1.4456. I think this is where you also ment

partly to lock in some pips.

Thanks
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #1,411
  • Edited 9:11pm Mar 30, 2009 8:00pm | Edited 9:11pm
Tomorrow is the end of the quarter when various banks, pension funds, hedge funds and others rebalance their portfolios, take profits and make adjustments. You won't find the date in the FF calendar but the effect is similar to options expiries and can make the markets for commodities, currencies and equities quite unpredictable because the reasons they have for doing so can have nothing to do with fundamentals or anything we can see on a chart.
All in all a very good reason to trade the daily chart and stay out of the chop.
With the end of the quarter, the big G20 meeting and N F P it is quite a week.
Nicola
  • #1,412
  • Mar 30, 2009 8:04pm Mar 30, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting elitejets
The weekly shooting star for crude, coming after the highest price close in 4 months worked brilliantly for crude today which fell 350 pips. We have now closed below the daily 20ema again for the first time in almost a month.
If you are not in already it is hard to enter after such a long daily bar. A retrace might give a better entry with lower risk.
All commodities are priced in US dollars so a stronger dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices. The demand fundamentals for crude are not good and the market views the equity indices and...
I was watching this unfold today after remembering you mentioning this pin bar/shooting star over the weekend. I don't have access to trade oil or gold right now, but they seem to have great price action setups and seem to make the most technical sense of any financial instruments I've ever followed
  • #1,413
  • Mar 30, 2009 8:06pm Mar 30, 2009 8:06pm
Hi Nicola

Nice call, so simple when you have the confidence to read PA for what it is.

I will look out for the retrace

Cheers
Steve
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #1,414
  • Mar 30, 2009 8:21pm Mar 30, 2009 8:21pm
In my exuberance to describe the new thread structure, I forgot to thank the guy who is doing all the artwork for the logos - Lance (rogueforex) - so thank you, Lance, for all your hard work.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,415
  • Edited 9:03pm Mar 30, 2009 8:21pm | Edited 9:03pm
I feel like singing "Oh Canada" today, not at all Rock and Roll but finally this one moved. Grimweasel and I have been waiting since last week!!
Strat asked last week if we all noticed how strong the 1.22 support level was and we heard you.

CAD and crude are distantly related but the correlation should not be relied upon as I think the moves have much more to do with a strengthening dollar.
The weekly hammer up for USDCAD worked brilliantly, and this pair has support from the BOSS 20ema and has closed above the daily 20ema again. I might add to my long on any dips.

Nicola
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  • #1,416
  • Mar 30, 2009 9:15pm Mar 30, 2009 9:15pm
Quoting Baba G
I too have been struggling with brother Grimweasels mental image picture and what is a Grimweasel so heres my vote
Good grief, none of you have heard of the wizard in the Harry Potter stories?

Having said that our grimweasel looks more like Harry Potter than the guy with the long white hair and white beard.
  • #1,417
  • Mar 30, 2009 9:37pm Mar 30, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting strat
If you look at my EURJPY trade, those 3 areas are clearly evident and for those who are struggling to see them, look for my clues.
Just trying to identify those three areas:

Area 1: Support zone and PA (hammer in this case) indicating possible swing low, but downtrend is still there, so it is safer to be selective when picking PA bars for trade entry (I mean using most reliable candle formations in perfect forms).

Area 2: The area where we get multiple confirmations of a new trend such as HH-HLs, price closing above 20 & 50 MAs and MAs start to change direction. Again selective entry and we can use swing lows for stops to give trade more room to develop.

Area 3: Fat city where price cleared all the hurdles (BOSS) and start running until it stops. Entries are with PA bars showing continuation of the trend and SLs are below PA bars.

Any comments?
  • #1,418
  • Mar 30, 2009 10:02pm Mar 30, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting elitejets
I feel like singing "Oh Canada" today, not at all Rock and Roll but finally this one moved. Grimweasel and I have been waiting since last week!!
Strat asked last week if we all noticed how strong the 1.22 support level was and we heard you.

CAD and crude are distantly related but the correlation should not be relied upon as I think the moves have much more to do with a strengthening dollar.
The weekly hammer up for USDCAD worked brilliantly, and this pair has support from the BOSS 20ema and has closed above the daily 20ema again. I might add...
Be careful, though, there is a long wick on today's candle (my data) which is at 50% fib. Why aren't you showing 50%? I'm also showing bearish momentum.
Draw a TL from the 2nd & 4th candles from the top and look what happens
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,419
  • Mar 31, 2009 1:56am Mar 31, 2009 1:56am
Pair touched the .3080 resistance ant 50% fibo. Going to go upside, what do you think?
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  • #1,420
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:27am Mar 31, 2009 2:27am
Quoting BaliuxXx
Pair touched the .3080 resistance ant 50% fibo. Going to go upside, what do you think?
I guess the next bar should say it all, though it doesn't say anything yet!

I wanted to kick myself for missing that hammer on GBP/USD, but then I realized that a close above the MA's would probably make for a higher probability trade. Plus, you guys have been talking about that hammer all weekend saying it was meaningless being in the wrong place. I knew doing the reading would come in handy!

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/3/gbpusdi.gif

Tell me if you like my idea of waiting for a close above the MA's for a long pending order, now I have additional incentive to try and post my stages of learning. So I can get one o' them bronze plastics!! Fender Medium, maybe a 73 MM?
Bang.
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