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  • #81,281
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:29pm Mar 30, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting tinkywinky
Hi all. I am new on the board but not really new on this site. Have been around for a loooooong time.

Thank you for this great thread. Useful posts, nice people.

I am a part/time trader, have been trading since 2002 but for living (p/t) only the last 4 yrs.

I trade forex and futures, and teach the other part of my time.

And have a short eur/usd and a long order waiting @13089.
Hello there & welcome,

I am going out soon, so I won't say much at present.
Just looking at your 1.3089 long order, that is where I am expecting the next S & Resistace level to be, should we go that low!(a turning point perhaps).

Currently I am short at 1.3144, with S/Loss at 1.3177, which nearly was hit.(Just playing it up & down the scale)

Good Luck to you.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #81,282
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:30pm Mar 30, 2009 1:30pm
speed bumps ares 3390 54 3176 14 3091 14 2933 2874 47

2970 fib
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,283
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:30pm Mar 30, 2009 1:30pm
second short got me 44pip from earlier it is strong double botom on the the 1h chart i too i not quit ready to give up puting on shorts i might need them! my a/c is up 5% so far this week
  • #81,284
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:34pm Mar 30, 2009 1:34pm
I will wait with my short a bit more I think, but don't like holding overnight. Will look at it again as the expirienced poster said, I also have a bit long bias as of 15 mns ago.
  • #81,285
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:35pm Mar 30, 2009 1:35pm
Ciao, I'm also "quite" new, welcome here... I'm waiting for a bounce around 1.3076

Quoting tinkywinky
Hi all. I am new on the board but not really new on this site. Have been around for a loooooong time.

...

And have a short eur/usd and a long order waiting @13089.
  • #81,286
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:39pm Mar 30, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting psiholog
originated near Morgan Hill if you know where that is....im not looking to escape somewhere else in Cali..im looking to get the hell out the state if the big one comes haha...before that!
Well I want to be gone too. I need better trading hours! I want to move about 8 time zones either one direction or the other.
  • #81,287
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:42pm Mar 30, 2009 1:42pm
My opinion is that market also reached turning point, and short bear correction are turning to up trend continuation.

Market conditions seems to be esteabilished above 1.30 area and we should see some bounces in 1.2990-80 levels. If price action clearly shows that levels are not broken, euro rally will continue back to 1.3742, should stay or balance below 100-150 pips for few days and then break up. If broken up, then 1.3863 needs to be watched and ( 1.4146 4186 ) this 2 levels are extra strong points.

Also, possibility to down fall seems to be very negative, cause a lot of points where pair turns. So I do not enter any short trades, and I look for perfect long opportunity on this pair.

For me pair is in long trend, and any short position is not valuable from my perspective, I hope you also see that be in advantage is a great advantage.
Wish you a lot of great moments with those you love.
  • #81,288
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:47pm Mar 30, 2009 1:47pm
[quote=Kess.;2638391]My opinion is that market also reached turning point, and short bear correction are turning to up trend continuation.

Market conditions seems to be esteabilished above 1.30 area and we should see some bounces in 1.2990-80 levels. If price action clearly shows that levels are not broken, euro rally will continue back to 1.3742, should stay or balance below 100-150 pips for few days and then break up. If broken up, then 1.3863 needs to be watched and ( 1.4146 4186 ) this 2 levels are extra strong points.


What's the basis for this analysis? Curious to see different view and learn
  • #81,289
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:53pm Mar 30, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting TradeWell
Well I want to be gone too. I need better trading hours! I want to move about 8 time zones either one direction or the other.
seriously...cali is the worst timezone for forex trading...gotta be up all hours of the day to catch the right times. most active are...10pm to 2 am or so...5am to 8 am then 11am to 1pm ....then around 4pm to 7 pm for any potential move in the asian session. All these times relate to market open/close for the different sessions with 5am-8am usually being most active (in terms of volume not necessarily volatility) as euro session and US session overlap.

now if I was to live in Europe (as i intend to do as i soon as i can)...i could do all my trading in a few hours as my daily goal is only 50-100pip. NOt only that but it would be in between 9am and 10pm (Europe time) at any time of my choosing...no more sleepless nights and so on.

The only drawdown to that will be....I will rarely post when that day comes so yeah...i guess most are hoping im stuck in my current situation forever. Cocky of me to say this...so know only that i kid
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,290
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:53pm Mar 30, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
a different prospective.. japans exports were down nearly 50%. we dont know yet what the e-zone is gonna report.. but if their exports are down by any way near japans e-zone is in trouble.. also u.s. savings rate is now up to 5% and expected to climb to nearly 10%.. americans are spending less.. and other then service any hard items are produced somewhere besides u.s. so this means a greater portion of money spent by americans goes to american companies.this all takes time.. until then the jobless increase... so if amercans buy less to a greater...
gator, you made a lot of good points. my belief is that the euro is gonna retest the mid to low 1.20's and go down even further later this year. i am selling rallies and taking very small long positions on dips, but the trend is down for now.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #81,291
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:55pm Mar 30, 2009 1:55pm
What do most of you use for a backstop, on average, when placing your trades?
  • #81,292
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:57pm Mar 30, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting Kess.
My opinion is that market also reached turning point, and short bear correction are turning to up trend continuation.

Market conditions seems to be established above 1.30 area and we should...
i hope u took note of your trend lines and watched the channel on all your time frame? i am not over ruling your judgments just wanted to say what i see, though there could be a bounce but i don't think its any soon
  • #81,293
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:05pm Mar 30, 2009 2:05pm
We musn't forget rate announcement coming up, which may be this drop pricing the cut expected. Or drop so we can have another push up after no rate cut...Oh, may be, might be...But my techs still show a bit more down possible before going up.
  • #81,294
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:15pm Mar 30, 2009 2:15pm
First bullish engulfing in 40 hours and a trendline breaks.... reversal?

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  • #81,295
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:15pm Mar 30, 2009 2:15pm
Why the sudden move to the upside? Any info?
  • #81,296
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:22pm Mar 30, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting currencyexch

What's the basis for this analysis? Curious to see different view and learn
My analyse is based on fib levels on daily chart and 8 hour chart, on 2 different shorts. I also look on rsi model with 2 smooth periods, on all revieved time frames, trendlines in price area I use just only as guidance. Because with trend lines is little bit problem, there are really never flat and can show lot of blind areas. So up continuation points have been developed so I have no bias for short, just only look on good short correction turning points.
Wish you a lot of great moments with those you love.
  • #81,297
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:24pm Mar 30, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting currencyexch
Why the sudden move to the upside? Any info?
it is the last hour of the us stock market....usually profit taking comes with it. now lets say if the trend was down for most of the day...the last hour is all about profit taking so a retracement to close positions follows.

there are days though when if the trend is down for the whole day...the sell off continues even stronger in the last hour.

this observation alone is not enough to base your trading decisions on though as you never know which kind of day it will be but i think it answers your question best given today's scenario.

one quote that doblece used to use (forget the author) is....

"the markets can stay irrational for far longer then you can stay rational"

in other words....does it even matter why it pushed up?..as long as you stick to your strategy..and all strategies have resistance/support levels i assume (earliest indicator of reversal)...youll be fine....without needing to understand why you are fine..just my 2cents
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,298
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:26pm Mar 30, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting Areo jide
i hope u took note of your trend lines and watched the channel on all your time frame? i am not over ruling your judgments just wanted to say what i see, though there could be a bounce but i don't think its any soon
Thats maybe I use prior 8 hour time frame, then 1 day and 4 , 2 and 1 hour frames just only for entering to the position. Price action also needs another breath to move to any way, so 8 hour frame erase all greedy not stable moves made by short termers in banks Thats' my point of view
Wish you a lot of great moments with those you love.
  • #81,299
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:31pm Mar 30, 2009 2:31pm
[quote=psiholog;2638471]it is the last hour of the us stock market....usually profit taking comes with it. now lets say if the trend was down for most of the day...the last hour is all about profit taking so a retracement to close positions follows.

there are days though when if the trend is down for the whole day...the sell off continues even stronger in the last hour.

this observation alone is not enough to base your trading decisions on though as you never know which kind of day it will be but i think it answers your question best given today's scenario.

one quote that doblece used to use (forget the author) is....

"the markets can stay irrational for far longer then you can stay rational"

/quote]

Thanks
I ask as my analysis was that the Euro would go up however given everyones view that it was bearish I set a sell for 1.3160 when it was at 1.3140 and no sooner done it goes north 35 pips
  • #81,300
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:39pm Mar 30, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting currencyexch
I ask as my analysis was that the Euro would go up however given everyones view that it was bearish I set a sell for 1.3160 when it was at 1.3140 and no sooner done it goes north 35 pips
that is a big NO NO. no matter what anyone has to say in this thread...good or bad...stick to your strategy and perceptions of the market only. The reason most of us post is to compare strategies and observations..that is all. Never ever make a trading decision based only on what someone else had to say...in the end only you are the master of your account and trusting someone else with your decisions is a certain path to failure.

Even my posts with my analysis..im always looking for feedback which is "contrary" to what i said...reasons why I may be wrong.

You see...we are all learning..forever...together...but nothing more. Thats if you want to succeed in this business called forex.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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