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  • #81,261
  • Mar 30, 2009 10:48am Mar 30, 2009 10:48am
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  • #81,262
  • Mar 30, 2009 10:56am Mar 30, 2009 10:56am
to try to understand where we may go next, we have to understand at where we have been. Now in the rally from 1.2500 to 1.3700...every resistance broken became support. When that last formed support was broken initially...we started a range at the high that eventually started this downtrend (red trendlines). I still view that range at the high (above 1.3425) as "iceberg order" time or "deat cat bounce" related to equities.

Anyways...since late Friday, after breaking down...we have been ranging in a tight downtrend (blue trendlines) at the low which in the past 12 hours has tightened even more (green trendlines). We have ranged making lower lows and lower highs all the way to 1.3130...what I consider the first strong support as that is where the last part of the bull rally began (Feds buying treasuries comment). Below that level this is where history is really important...pa moved slowly up in waves with each resistance broken becoming support. The last level to do so was 1.3045.

Conclusion....there is possibly some room for further downside momentum up to 1.3045 but a retrace to higher levels (as would be portrayed by a break up out of the green and blue downtrend) is likely which may become the case in preparation for G-20...a ranging market. I expect the bigger downtrend (red lines) to remain intact...the only hard part is determining which level should be strong resistance now as we have not met resistance on the way down since...1.3425.

Good pippin all

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,263
  • Mar 30, 2009 11:06am Mar 30, 2009 11:06am
Quoting psiholog
to try to understand where we may go next, we have to understand at where we have been.

Good pippin all
Excellent as always - thx
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #81,264
  • Mar 30, 2009 11:07am Mar 30, 2009 11:07am
Quoting psiholog
to try to understand where we may go next, we have to understand at where we have been. Now in the rally from 1.2500 to 1.3700...every resistance broken became support. When that last formed support was broken initially...we started a range at the high that eventually started this downtrend (red trendlines). I still view that range at the high (above 1.3425) as "iceberg order" time or "deat cat bounce" related to equities.

Anyways...since late Friday, after breaking down...we have been ranging in a tight downtrend (blue trendlines) at the...

i love to read your post bro
  • #81,265
  • Mar 30, 2009 11:33am Mar 30, 2009 11:33am
Quoting ak4x


so looks like that 35oo level is still got some takers... lots of them.

i have a daily 50ema and a fib down a'rd the 3060/80 level i'd like to see get challenged, but it looks like the the Perimeter has been expanded and strenghtened a little farther out than that for some time now.

oh well, back to my projects.

NOTE: 3400/40ish could be a hard ceiling on the way back up... if it turns back North.
The close of that last 5min bar at 1.3150 should be as high as it gets, IFFF on the other hand a bar closes above 1.3163 it may very well go up, but a short is on the cards!
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #81,266
  • Mar 30, 2009 11:56am Mar 30, 2009 11:56am
gtgbye all
  • #81,267
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:16pm Mar 30, 2009 12:16pm
now that trichet's speech did not have any effects on the market i guess the market still signifies bearish...... any other opinion?
  • #81,268
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:18pm Mar 30, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting Jasper
...IFFF on the other hand a bar closes above 1.3163 it may very well go up, but a short is on the cards!
I have an S1 pivot at 3170 that i would call the upper line, really only a smidgeon above your xx63 number, and who's counting a half dozen pips in this environment...

that pivot is very ambiguous as it's a sunday pivot based on a gap, usually very low confidence, but these seem to be ok this week....M2 @3274, M1 @ 3107 and S1 in the middle of the froth @3170.

in any event, i tend to agree.

I'm watching now and then but not In The Game these next few days except for a couple very small top of the range shorts hoping for a ride down to the Line of make or break. I'd hate to miss a good long entry on a dash south, so if the alarm goes off, i'm flexible...
FUBAR...
  • #81,269
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:50pm Mar 30, 2009 12:50pm
just got jolted by a 4.4 earthquake....scary...wasnt holding on to my hat...reminder of the next "big" one expected to come any day now...i live in the bay area, california for those wondering...anyone else felt it?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,270
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:54pm Mar 30, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting psiholog
just got jolted by a 4.4 earthquake....scary...wasnt holding on to my hat...reminder of the next "big" one expected to come any day now...i live in the bay area, california for those wondering...anyone else felt it?
Those are for sure scary, use to get them frequently in central America last time i went.
  • #81,271
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:55pm Mar 30, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting psiholog
just got jolted by a 4.4 earthquake....scary...wasnt holding on to my hat...reminder of the next "big" one expected to come any day now...i live in the bay area, california for those wondering...anyone else felt it?
Didn't feel it here (I'm on other side of Sacramento Valley). But many times we do. You can escape here if the "big one" hits. It's the boonies but we have high-speed wireless!
  • #81,272
  • Mar 30, 2009 12:57pm Mar 30, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting TradeWell
Didn't feel it here (I'm on other side of Sacramento Valley). But many times we do. You can escape here if the "big one" hits. It's the boonies but we have high-speed wireless!
originated near Morgan Hill if you know where that is....im not looking to escape somewhere else in Cali..im looking to get the hell out the state if the big one comes haha...before that!
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,273
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:00pm Mar 30, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting psiholog
just got jolted by a 4.4 earthquake....scary...wasnt holding on to my hat...reminder of the next "big" one expected to come any day now...i live in the bay area, california for those wondering...anyone else felt it?
Yes, I felt it .... man itīs always scary, even if itīs just the smallest quake
Plus, I have to manage my trades, I donīt have time to find a safe spot ;-)
  • #81,274
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:04pm Mar 30, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting mikekneip
Yes, I felt it .... man itīs always scary, even if itīs just the smallest quake
Plus, I have to manage my trades, I donīt have time to find a safe spot ;-)
true that...the thing with these earthquakes is it could always be a prelude to a bigger one..you never know....now im going to be on high alert for the next few days...there goes good sleeping later on tonight haha.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,275
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:07pm Mar 30, 2009 1:07pm
does somebody know where the trend is going! japs candles aint working. short on 1.315?!
  • #81,276
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:08pm Mar 30, 2009 1:08pm
Hi all. I am new on the board but not really new on this site. Have been around for a loooooong time.

Thank you for this great thread. Useful posts, nice people.

I am a part/time trader, have been trading since 2002 but for living (p/t) only the last 4 yrs.

I trade forex and futures, and teach the other part of my time.

And have a short eur/usd and a long order waiting @13089.
  • #81,277
  • Edited 1:34pm Mar 30, 2009 1:09pm | Edited 1:34pm
a different prospective.. japans exports were down nearly 50%. we dont know yet what the e-zone is gonna report.. but if their exports are down by any way near japans e-zone is in trouble.. also u.s. savings rate is now up to 5% and expected to climb to nearly 10%.. americans are spending less.. and other then service any hard items are produced somewhere besides u.s. so this means a greater portion of money spent by americans goes to american companies.this all takes time.. until then the jobless increase... so if amercans buy less to a greater proportion we import less.. reducing deficit and strengthening dollar even though more is being printed..and if u.s. does save u.s car industry this will hurt imports even more.. there is a buy american sediment out there.. another point is s. korea is positioning itself to cut into japans and e-zones car imports to u.s. with the 10yr 100k w contract plus loss of job return policy...they followed japans game plan and perfected it then improved it.. all this will further cripple japan and e-zone car imports till they catch up..with all this in the mix e-zone does not want a weak dollar because it will further deteriate exports... there will be lots of tug of wars and higher and lower talk... but only one will win the battle. yes they got a big w that not complete and possibly a cup...Anyway id like to go long like most of you here and walk away for a month but cant..i got a 50/50 chance of being right and so do you..but im looking for better odds..or at better r/r with odds

i have went long 3 times in the last 2 days... i made money on 2 and lost one.. i have went short numerous (aprox 12) times in last 2 days and counting today my account has grown 12.5%
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,278
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:10pm Mar 30, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting psiholog
originated near Morgan Hill if you know where that is....
The ex lives in Morgan Hill - I vow no ill will knowing you're there -
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #81,279
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:14pm Mar 30, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting michiyo
does somebody know where the trend is going! japs candles aint working. short on 1.315?!
candlesticks dont say too much when the market is ranging as we are doing now. the range is between 1.3165 and 1.3130....a break of that area will indicate further direction. the interesting thing about 1.3165 is it was previous support so until that level is broken...market is bearish. I do hold a slightly bullish bias though and am looking for long entries...probably after us stock market closes and range is fully developed.

i suggest in ranging markets to take a look at a line chart....it shows the range even better.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #81,280
  • Mar 30, 2009 1:20pm Mar 30, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting michiyo
does somebody know where the trend is going! japs candles aint working. short on 1.315?!
if you see higher highs and higher lows then the trend is up. if you see lower highs and lower lows, the trend is down. candlesticks gives you oportunities in trends to buy on dips (trend up) or to sell rallies (trend down). if it gets too weird on your chart, flip to a line chart, define the trend, flip back to a candlestick-chart and search for entries.

edit: i see psiholog did the job already..lol
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