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  • #80,841
  • Mar 28, 2009 9:44am Mar 28, 2009 9:44am
Quoting vaio
I've been working on a eurusd 5min technical system for nearly 3 years now. I finally got it to backtest for last 15 months on 5min chart with great results. Too good to be true. I am finding it hard to trust a backtest though. It seems like backtesting finds conditions optimised for that partiular set of data and doesn't predict the future.

Everytime I trade it, I find a better way to optimise it. This cycle keeps going and going. Any of you had similar experience?
lol, yes. It`s hard to make anything 100% perfect. even a 0.01% deviation may cause a huge loss.
  • #80,842
  • Mar 28, 2009 9:46am Mar 28, 2009 9:46am
this is a community service!

current price

eur/usd 1.3289
  • #80,843
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:31am Mar 28, 2009 10:31am
Quoting 99vt66
The price of EJ is always the price of UJ multiply the price of EU simultaneously at all times consistantly....up or down.

Hope it helps
Thanks anyway but that wasn't my question.
  • #80,844
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:38am Mar 28, 2009 10:38am
Quoting toshi
Just one person's perspective here:

The Yen (funding currency) usually does the driving.
Take a statistical look-back at the days EU went up and UJ went down,
or when EU drops and UJ goes up. In other words, when both units are higher together
or both are lower together, against the USD. Most of the time, yen will determine outcome.

This used to be extremely reliable when the carry trade was winding.
Now that the unwind has filtered thru the mkts, the stats show some deviation.

Moreover, I've come to distrust a Euroyen move on the back of...
Yes thank you. Much better than saying if X does this then Y does that always. Because as you know already there is no always when it comes to trading.

EJ is my favorite pair to watch how equities will move and vice versa.
  • #80,845
  • Edited 4:37pm Mar 28, 2009 1:37pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting guess121


I wasn't in the trade before... but this is looking good... good luck... bears and bulls... the fight is on!

Good luck, happy pipping!
Thanks Guess for your good wishes.

Before drawing any conclusions from my post to which you have responded, please do consider that all my trades (I repeat – ALL my trades) are always based on risk assessment and “my” risk appetite. I have a completely different way of deciding entries, SLs and TPs than many. My 25% possible drawdown is not for this one particular trade (i.e to 1.3200), but for a series of trades on this move down until we see a possible reversal (not just a correction, but a reversal maybe around 1.25xx/1.24xx), including my plans for what I am going to do if PA moves to below 1.3000. I do NOT want anyone to get an idea that taking 25% risk on one’s investment is cool even in exceptional or “almost sure” situations. In future, I will try to carefully articulate what I write and include complete detail of my plans and related risk calculation / possible drawdown chart that I use for every big move I decide to play. Not always but mostly my trades on smaller moves are part of a big move and therefore I accordingly calculate my maximum drawdown (i.e. on the complete move).
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80,846
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:14pm Mar 28, 2009 4:14pm
Nearest support and resistance levels for the beginning of the next week:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_SandR.PNG Size: 24 KB
  • #80,847
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:01pm Mar 28, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Bullshit

Believe it or not, even in this day and age, some people still chop wood and use it for heat.

But of course, the conspiracy theorists are saying lots of things now.
Hey Jay - No BS about GE

Were these conspiracy theories 6 months ago?

Government limiting exec pay...
Gov. taking over any company they choose...
Gov. threatening posting names of execs...
Gov. threatening unconstitutional 90% tax on a chosen few...
Taxpayers own 80% of AIG...
AIG hires rent-a-cops to protect employees from mobs...
35,000 protesting in London...
Gov. proposing taxing market transactions...
Head of IRS a tax cheat...
Gov. open to idea of new world currency...
Obama wants vets to pay for war injuries...
White House Chief of Staff plans compulsory community service...
Real cost of bailout so far 5 trillion, 8 trillion, 11 trillion...?
Ladies and gentlemen, the pres. of the US, Barack Obama...

Just to name a few.

Buying dips in EU.
Attached Image
History is written by the victors.
  • #80,848
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:34pm Mar 28, 2009 6:34pm
Turned from punch lists to these kind nowadays, huh?
  • #80,849
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:48pm Mar 28, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
Turned from punch lists to these kind nowadays, huh?
Yeah some times I just get P off seeing all the economic hardship at work everyday.
History is written by the victors.
  • #80,850
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:56pm Mar 28, 2009 6:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
EJ is my favorite pair to watch how equities will move and vice versa.
The guy that won the latest FXCM contest did it with E/J taking $800 to $14,000 (approximately) in a month.
History is written by the victors.
  • #80,851
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:22pm Mar 28, 2009 7:22pm
Hi EU traders from around the world

Most likely EU will drop to 1.3053 and bounce...imho
  • #80,852
  • Edited 7:37pm Mar 28, 2009 7:29pm | Edited 7:37pm
Quoting hartnet
Hi EU traders from around the world

Most likely EU will drop to 1.3053 and bounce...imho
EU traders from around the world welcome you back to past. Kindly tell us more about future.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80,853
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:46pm Mar 28, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting Chicky
EU traders from around the world welcome you back to past. Kindly tell us more about future.
Hehe...

That area is a confluence of a 38.2fib ret line and a daily LTL

And I would say again..this is..just an IMhO
  • #80,854
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:50pm Mar 28, 2009 7:50pm
Quoting hartnet
Hehe...

That area is a confluence of a 38.2fib ret line and a daily LTL

And I would say again..this is..just an IMhO
That explains the possible bounce if it gets there but why do you think it might get there?
  • #80,855
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:53pm Mar 28, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Money-RX
Hey Jay - No BS about GE

Were these conspiracy theories 6 months ago?

Government limiting exec pay...
Gov. taking over any company they choose...
Gov. threatening posting names of execs...
Gov. threatening unconstitutional 90% tax on a chosen few...
Taxpayers own 80% of AIG...
AIG hires rent-a-cops to protect employees from mobs...
35,000 protesting in London...
Gov. proposing taxing market transactions...
Head of IRS a tax cheat...
Gov. open to idea of new world currency...
Obama wants vets to pay for war injuries...
White House Chief of Staff...
To be fair, you do have a point. Some things have happened that 6 months ago could have been seen as inconceivable to most.

That being said. Does that mean that you have to put up with it?

If I did live in the Union of Socialist States of America, exactly how would Mr. Obama control my thermostat if my place was heated by firewood? How would my thermostat be controlled or monitored if I was off the grid with I don't know, solar panels for example.

Some people will be complacent and put up with it. Some would rather not. I for one would make my house off the grid. Not because I want to be a friend of Al Gore and not because because I want Greenpeace members to show up at my door and share their weed with me. Nonono! I would do it because I don't want to have to rely on others, and I don't want to be monitored.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,856
  • Edited 7:58pm Mar 28, 2009 7:57pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting hartnet
Hehe...

That area is a confluence of a 38.2fib ret line and a daily LTL

And I would say again..this is..just an IMhO
Before considering 1.3057, I would appreciate if you could check Oct. 10 and Jan 6 on daily chart. These two dates are bothering me.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80,857
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:03pm Mar 28, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
That explains the possible bounce if it gets there but why do you think it might get there?
We have a sharp selloff last friday after slowly coming down in days prior to that. I am looking at 1H chart, and it seems most likely that it will come to rest there before the next direction....IMhO
  • #80,858
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:08pm Mar 28, 2009 8:08pm
http://i40.tinypic.com/oqgefm.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,859
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:09pm Mar 28, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting Chicky
Before considering 1.3057, I would appreciate if you could check Oct. 10 and Jan 6 on daily chart. These two dates are bothering me.
I missed that. It is a very valid point, I think, as EU downmove stopped here .

It must be cleared before a further downmove. But you know what, I am still bearish on EU
  • #80,860
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:09pm Mar 28, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting SunTrader
Thanks anyway but that wasn't my question.
Thanx, you're welcome but you missed the subtilty of my answer in the context of my respond to the earlier post.
I stop trading Yen crosses becos the correls of carry and uj became skewed and blurred 6months before the financial turmoil and still remain so. Its like having to know the directions of 2 different pairs to know the products of one currency never mind the higher spreads. So, its all majors to me right now esp EU.
I noticed you are one of the few ''creme'' here.(ex equity?) and it will be my honor to have a friendly exchange of trading ideas from times to times...
I remember being thrown a when I first try posting here....

Mindset sometimes remain the hardest nut to crack and thats why we traders abhor changes...
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