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  • #80,821
  • Mar 28, 2009 1:23am Mar 28, 2009 1:23am
Predictably, I'm getting concerned.

I have yet to see the traditional weekend argument about the existence of a gap and whether or not it should be traded.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,822
  • Mar 28, 2009 1:45am Mar 28, 2009 1:45am
Quoting Jay Walker
Predictably, I'm getting concerned.

I have yet to see the traditional weekend argument about the existence of a gap and whether or not it should be traded.
Left open a few yen longs with wide stops..
I will be content to wait on the sidelines whichever way the price opens next week
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #80,823
  • Mar 28, 2009 1:56am Mar 28, 2009 1:56am
Quoting Jay Walker
Predictably, I'm getting concerned.

I have yet to see the traditional weekend argument about the existence of a gap and whether or not it should be traded.
damn dude - stirrin' the pot a little early aren't ya?
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #80,824
  • Edited 9:21am Mar 28, 2009 2:12am | Edited 9:21am
COT report

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
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  • #80,825
  • Mar 28, 2009 2:33am Mar 28, 2009 2:33am
Quoting SeerEye
damn dude - stirrin' the pot a little early aren't ya?
Yep!

Every weekend, I grab a huge bowl of popcorn, melt some butter, pour it on the popcorn, sprinkle a little salt and get a nice frosty can of Coca-Cola.

Then I watch this thread unfold with the never ending arguing.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,826
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:35am Mar 28, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Jay Walker
Yep!

Every weekend, I grab a huge bowl of popcorn, melt some butter, pour it on the popcorn, sprinkle a little salt and get a nice frosty can of Coca-Cola.

Then I watch this thread unfold with the never ending arguing.
Jay,

You are a funny man indeed. Enjoy the Coke. Nothing beats it.
  • #80,827
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:50am Mar 28, 2009 4:50am
Quoting Scotty B
Jay,

You are a funny man indeed. Enjoy the Coke. Nothing beats it.
And enjoy the weekend and come back refreshed and new next week so we can all together lose money .
{Promotion Removed}
  • #80,828
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:07am Mar 28, 2009 5:07am
Quoting magnumt
And enjoy the weekend and come back refreshed and new next week so we can all together lose money .
Well. How about you lose money and I make money? Or you make a little money and I make more money?

I need the money, I have a coffee habit to support you know!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,829
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:25am Mar 28, 2009 5:25am
Quoting billye
hi jay:

what does gap mean? weekend gap?
you mean probably monday asia will open at US noon price?

didn't broker prevent arbitrage from that?
I'm not getting involved in the weekend arguing of the gap.

I just sit back and watch it.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,830
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:32am Mar 28, 2009 5:32am
Quoting billye
oh, did not catch what is a gap, away~ have fun with your drinks
Some people believe in the existence of a gap in the chart from the time a broker close until they open again.

Some others don't believe in such thing.

Pot-ay-to, pot-ah-to
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,831
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:25am Mar 28, 2009 6:25am
I do even better, I trade the gap before it appears. How many people do that?

Hint: Do a little study to find out what direction gap usually happens and you'll be richer.
  • #80,832
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:28am Mar 28, 2009 6:28am
Quoting mikkom
I do even better, I trade the gap before it appears. How many people do that?

Hint: Do a little study to find out what direction gap usually happens and you'll be richer.
You should wait for me to get the popcorn before you say that.

...ok, now I'm ready.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,833
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:18am Mar 28, 2009 7:18am
Quoting arthurb
COT report
here's link to AUD...it has turned bullish. You can find EUR there too, but not exactly bullish yet.

http://www.learningmarkets.com/index...indicator.html
  • #80,834
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:35am Mar 28, 2009 7:35am
Quoting mikkom
I do even better, I trade the gap before it appears. How many people do that?

Hint: Do a little study to find out what direction gap usually happens and you'll be richer.
lol, i guess the gap is going to be on the direction of the trend, considering the rate decision by ECB the coming week...
  • #80,835
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:37am Mar 28, 2009 7:37am
Quoting SunTrader
Then which way does EJ go if EU goes up and UJ goes down,
in other words the Euro and Yen both strengthen at the same time?
Just one person's perspective here:

The Yen (funding currency) usually does the driving.
Take a statistical look-back at the days EU went up and UJ went down,
or when EU drops and UJ goes up. In other words, when both units are higher together
or both are lower together, against the USD. Most of the time, yen will determine outcome.

This used to be extremely reliable when the carry trade was winding.
Now that the unwind has filtered thru the mkts, the stats show some deviation.

Moreover, I've come to distrust a Euroyen move on the back of the Euro alone,
meaning that if the Euro is up more than the Yen is up (both compared to USD)
and it's taking the cross higher, I still don't trust such moves and dismiss it as temporary,
unless something else is indicating an extreme price action bias in the Euro sufficient to
overcome the "Yen is driving" tendency.
This part is the "broken clock is right twice a day" analogy and is, atleast for me anyway,
more of the exception rather than the rule. Just one person's observations.

Hope it makes (or saves) pips.
  • #80,836
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:48am Mar 28, 2009 7:48am
Quoting zapper
lol, i guess the gap is going to be on the direction of the trend, considering the rate decision by ECB the coming week...
I don't trade gaps based on fundamentals, there are some things that you can use to guess where the price opens on next week (this is a kind of anti risk aversion trade)

Below is an example curve for totally mechanic, open on friday, close when market opens strategys curve.

People seem to want to trade the opening gap and after a lot and lot of testing, I haven't found any reasonable way of doing it (I'm not saying there isn't one, I just haven't found it)
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  • #80,837
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:49am Mar 28, 2009 7:49am
Quoting zapper
lol, i guess the gap is going to be on the direction of the trend, considering the rate decision by ECB the coming week...
Everybody knows the rate change is on the table. Everyone is talking .50 bp rate cut to be bearish, but that just seems too easy.

I am looking forward to more US govt. spending on Auto bailouts to send the Euro Higher, prior to ECB...really though, anything can happen. FX ain't what it used to be.
  • #80,838
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:58am Mar 28, 2009 7:58am
Quoting SunTrader
Then which way does EJ go if EU goes up and UJ goes down,
in other words the Euro and Yen both strengthen at the same time?
Gap or no gap, I'm set to cover some shorts at this level and move stops to well below B/E
for the remainder on a bounce from 128.30. Also, 126.85 likely has decent buying interest
if the Yen decides to go for a flying leap. However, I'm not greedy. We take what we can.
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  • #80,839
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:30am Mar 28, 2009 8:30am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Everybody knows the rate change is on the table. Everyone is talking .50 bp rate cut to be bearish, but that just seems too easy.

I am looking forward to more US govt. spending on Auto bailouts to send the Euro Higher, prior to ECB...really though, anything can happen. FX ain't what it used to be.
Yes, and besides all that... there`s some yen news slated to be released early monday. If that turns the yen +ve vs it`s counterparts, it might push EJ down which might just slide the EU a bit and just enough to break the 1.3250 support... And also, the EU being closer to 1.3000 than 1.4000 . Who knows what would happen... xD
  • #80,840
  • Mar 28, 2009 9:24am Mar 28, 2009 9:24am
I've been working on a eurusd 5min technical system for nearly 3 years now. I finally got it to backtest for last 15 months on 5min chart with great results. Too good to be true. I am finding it hard to trust a backtest though. It seems like backtesting finds conditions optimised for that partiular set of data and doesn't predict the future.

Everytime I trade it, I find a better way to optimise it. This cycle keeps going and going. Any of you had similar experience?
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