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  • #80,761
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:17pm Mar 27, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting emda
yes. no need to trade those 3 pairs.... it's the same as trading EURUSD pair alone. but with triple risk... think of it: EUR / USD = EUR/GBP * GPB/USD

other thing is if you trade EUR/USD and AUD/NZD and mmmm GBP/JPY for example.

yes.. it could be a good idea to use that fibs.

by the way... don't worry to lose money when you start trading. But only lose money that you can lose.
Yes, after a while I realized just that, that trading those was the same as trading the EURUSD, waste of time and just more chances of losing money in the long run.

Also, I am using money that I can lose, I am very careful about that, but man, it still pisses me off how hard is to master this forex thing.

Thanks for the fibs answer, I will sure keep an eye come Monday.
  • #80,762
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:24pm Mar 27, 2009 2:24pm
hey any of you gurus out there can you please interpet circled pattern. its on the 4hr.. i have my own thoughts already but dont want to influence yours.. i just care about the pattern and direction it indicates. it doesnt matter thats it friday ect. im trying to educate myself with another tool. thank you
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,763
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:25pm Mar 27, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting Tenshi28
....On a different note, do you guys think it's a good idea to use the fibonacci retracements from the 1.3730 highs to today's lows to try to anticipate a possible rebound in the short term next week?
Ahhh.... a fib question, as we round the last turn going into the straight.

Here's the thing. No matter the Answer to your Question, and there are several possibilities such as Yes, No, Maybe, and I Don't Know, you've already gotten a seed of something fixed in your mind as to what the fib will tell you.

It's a fine hair splitting Point to be sure, but rather consider looking at it with a little less "Anticipation" for now. You're just Starting Out with them by your own word...

Learn the Language before you try to interpret the Nuance. Plot fibs if you Will and when Price finally goes where it Will, you'll have a heads up for where it Might be headed. You can position your self ahead of time and Wait for it. Otherwise, one tends to be often Wind Up looking at the the south End of a north bound mule while you run after it.

Any Mule questions please refer them to Gator.

Ponder this...

We've been to 37xx and almost a half. Now we've come to 32xx and a half. Call it 500 even. Half of that is 250... add that to 32xx and a half and you get... :nerd:

Assuming at least 2 Cups of Joe down the hatch, you don't even need a fib for that one, but I'll post a couple anyway. What you really want to watch is what Price does with that Yellow shaded bar next week... If it crawls back above it, then Game Back On. And Then havin that fib handy could be handy.

Just mhaouo.
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FUBAR...
  • #80,764
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:27pm Mar 27, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
hey any of you gurus out there can you please interpet circled pattern. its on the 4hr..
market ate too much too fast, decided to lay down and take a nap... sleep it off.
FUBAR...
  • #80,765
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:33pm Mar 27, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting dancarey
Yes, exactly....
Agree totally with the above, it's pretty much what I'm doing, 18 profits and Zero losses in 2 - 3 weeks, no down blips on my chart is good, no 1 step forward 1 step back, just got to be very patient and only gamble on near certs.

The you can base your Lot Size on your average draw down, which if this is near enough none existant means you can really hammer your account and make alot of $$$'s from very few pips.

The hard part is having the concentration to sit there and pay attention while waiting for that perfect setup, which is big time lacking this week.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #80,766
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:33pm Mar 27, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting ak4x
Ahhh.... a fib question, as we round the last turn going into the straight.

Here's the thing. No matter the Answer to your Question, and there are several possibilities such as Yes, No, Maybe, and I Don't Know, you've already gotten a seed of something fixed in your mind as to what the fib will tell you.

It's a fine hair splitting Point to be sure, but rather consider looking at it with a little less "Anticipation" for now. You're just Starting Out with them by your own word...

Learn the Language before you try to interpret the Nuance. Plot...
i would throw is japans exports down 50% last month. this should indicate a lower result in e-zone monthy also.. plus at the g20 thing this weekend i bet e-zone will have a plan with u.s. to strenghten dollar.. they will be face to face behind closed doors.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,767
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:37pm Mar 27, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting ak4x
market ate too much too fast, decided to lay down and take a nap... sleep it off.
i see a pennet on the end of inverted flag pole. taking a break also. but the flag direction is screwing me.. i guess i better look in charts and find a few like this one.. to see..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,768
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:37pm Mar 27, 2009 2:37pm
FIB's DO NOT WORK ignore and step away from Fib's

Yes if you draw enough lines after the fact you'll see a pattern but thats the end of it, yes you get lucky enough to justify them but thats all it is.

Statistically in a live trading environment there totally worthless you might aswell drop a stack of random lines on the chart, but you'd have less faith.

Yes Fib users can still make money, trading is more about what you do after you've entered a trade, ie exit if its starting to lose and keep it if it's doing well, it really is that easy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #80,769
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:40pm Mar 27, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting Turveyd
FIB's DO NOT WORK ignore and step away from Fib's

Yes if you draw enough lines after the fact you'll see a pattern but thats the end of it, yes you get lucky enough to justify them but thats all it is.

Statistically in a live trading environment there totally worthless you might aswell drop a stack of random lines on the chart, but you'd have less faith.

Yes Fib users can still make money, trading is more about what you do after you've entered a trade, ie exit if its starting to lose and keep it if it's doing well, it really is that easy!!...
they worked last night for me.. and i drew them before the move.. look at last night charts and notice the yellow lines
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,770
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:44pm Mar 27, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
can you please interpet circled pattern. its on the 4hr.. i just care about the pattern and direction it indicates. it doesnt matter thats it friday ect. im trying to educate myself with another tool. thank you
there isnt much of a pattern there. just consolidation at the low in a tight range with the potential to continue down or be the start of a retracement. Considering weekend gaps have shown themselves to be quite common in recent weeks...I recommend you dont read to much into current pa and focus on the sunday open....see how it plays out compared to the strong Support/Resistance levels you have on your charts.

As for me...I'm flat even though I had a great entry off 1.3593 just because so much can change between now and sundays open.

Have a nice weekend all...hope you all had as great a week as I did...be back Sunday.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #80,771
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:45pm Mar 27, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting Tenshi28
Yes, after a while I realized just that, that trading those was the same as trading the EURUSD, waste of time and just more chances of losing money in the long run.

Also, I am using money that I can lose, I am very careful about that, but man, it still pisses me off how hard is to master this forex thing.

Thanks for the fibs answer, I will sure keep an eye come Monday.
don't have to be so difficult. it can be as difficult as you want.... Advice: Start trading the daily charts... not lower timeframes.
Also. Don't expect to master forex soon... it can take years... Don't think it is free money. it is harder than any job out there.... but if you have huge capital to play with. it is easier and very good. If you have little money to put on it... you need.... many years of patience
  • #80,772
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:46pm Mar 27, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting Turveyd
FIB's DO NOT WORK ignore and step away from Fib's

Yes if you draw enough lines after the fact you'll see a pattern but thats the end of it,...
Maybe that's why your planning is 50 years?
The traders that use fibs might get there a little sooner.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #80,773
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:47pm Mar 27, 2009 2:47pm
how more time do we have before close the market, because i want to close all my positions
thanks
  • #80,774
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:52pm Mar 27, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting psiholog
there isnt much of a pattern there. just consolidation at the low in a tight range with the potential to continue down or be the start of a retracement. Considering weekend gaps have shown themselves to be quite common in recent weeks...I recommend you dont read to much into current pa and focus on the sunday open....see how it plays out compared to the strong Support/Resistance levels you have on your charts.

As for me...I'm flat even though I had a great entry off 1.3593 just because so much can change between now and sundays open.

Have a...
actually i banked over 10% last night..im gonna stay in.. the gap may hit my sl when it opens... i just hope the gap isnt 100 pips..thanks for the chart read.. have a good weekend
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,775
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:56pm Mar 27, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
actually i banked over 10% last night..im gonna stay in.. the gap may hit my sl when it opens... i just hope the gap isnt 100 pips..thanks for the chart read.. have a good weekend
you are the master of your account.....one thing though...be aware geithner is due to speak again sunday at around the same time the market opens or shortly after....lately his speeches have been dollar negative as we all know...who knows how it will be this time...especially since hes talking to banks
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #80,776
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:00pm Mar 27, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting ak4x
Ahhh.... a fib question, as we round the last turn going into the straight.

Here's the thing. No matter the Answer to your Question, and there are several possibilities such as Yes, No, Maybe, and I Don't Know, you've already gotten a seed of something fixed in your mind as to what the fib will tell you.

It's a fine hair splitting Point to be sure, but rather consider looking at it with a little less "Anticipation" for now. You're just Starting Out with them by your own word...

Learn the Language before you try to interpret the Nuance. Plot...
Would a previous fib drawn from 1,31070 to the recent high of 1,3736 be of any use in terms of analysing the price movement now?... For instance, on the chart below it seems that for a few days price was in a range between the 0% fib and 38.2%. Then the price went down to the 50% fib for a bit before going back up basically to the 23.6%. And today, it went down to the 76.4% which is where support seems to be right now.
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Doh! I didn't mean to do that.
  • #80,777
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:05pm Mar 27, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting Turveyd
FIB's DO NOT WORK ignore and step away from Fib's ... Yes if you draw enough lines after the fact...
Alrighty then...

I call "Operator Error"

Fwiw...
Time stamped from 8:07 pm CST March 15: Chart posted with Target of M4/114% fib extension at 2987/88.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=396

Time stamped at 4:10am CST March 16: Chart posted "Target hit".
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...it#post2605615

But noone on this thread lets a few facts screw up a good story.. Let's not start now.
FUBAR...
  • #80,778
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:07pm Mar 27, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting klinckphilip
No, Down and should be good for 100 pips or so. Over the next few hours...
ok so for the next day or two but the hundred pips was and under estimate
  • #80,779
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:15pm Mar 27, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting Turveyd
FIB's DO NOT WORK ignore and step away from Fib's
I must respectfully disagree.I've had a fib drawn from 1.2334 10/27/08 to 1.4719 12/18/08 for weeks. The upward move last week touched the 38.2% and then backed off to hover around the 50% retrace most of this week and the drop today hit the 61.8% damn near to the pip. I would have to say that PA is respecting fib levels exceptionally well; at least for me. At least that is what I'm 'seeing.' btw - made a few damn good pips in the process of these fibs lines too; following my rules of engagement.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #80,780
  • Edited 9:55pm Mar 27, 2009 3:24pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting *Pipster*
Would a previous fib drawn from 1,31070 to the recent high of 1,3736 be of any use in terms of analysing the price movement now?...
Sure it could... but here's the thing with fibs, and they're like screen time, no substitute for plotting and then watching them "work" after you draw them.

Each timeframe can have different dynamics or harmonics going on with it, all within the framework of a larger one(s). Sorting that out, plotting and interpreting it with some reasonable degree of accuracy that will give you confidence is what you should be looking to do. Otherwise just leave them alone like someone just said and find something else you can commit to.

I don't rely on ANY one thing really but a relatively small toolbox of things I feel comfortable with... for now. I also know where my next "Learning Curve" awaits and am in the process of sorting that out now. Fibs will always be a part of my trading tho.

My last post here--> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=154341 incidentally has a decent illustration of what I just said about different TF's and moves within moves...

I have similar fibs to yours but I am currently usiing the ones that show "completed cycles" and so my anchors are somewhat different.

This may help explain that last statement if you haven't already seen it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=154341
FUBAR...
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