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  • #78,781
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:29am Mar 23, 2009 6:29am
Quoting altrader
this is what i get for trading the gap
Actually, maybe this trade wasn't so bad afterall. I didn't get stopped out, so I'm still going ok.
  • #78,782
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:38am Mar 23, 2009 6:38am
Quite a day on tap for US equities. FX already made a move from sunday, More upside feasible buut not worth the risk for me, will be looking for test of downside, and perhaps a test and continued upside. Looking for ranged action for the week, new Top and bottom of range to be set next two weeks.
  • #78,783
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:39am Mar 23, 2009 6:39am
Quoting psiholog
one more chart...if i am posting excessively...let me know and i will stop =/

does todays pa up until this point look like a h&s? with the left shoulder as an extended consolidation period between shoulder and neckline?

opinions?

Attachment
Good chart. I'm hoping to ride the break of the neckline down to the close of the previous day at around 3580. I may close half of that position beforehand though depending on how the trade develops. OR I could get stopped out but I'm thinking that we should head down and fill this gap in totality first b4 moving back up later in the week. (hopefully)
  • #78,784
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:39am Mar 23, 2009 6:39am
Quoting Titus
eur/cad daily charts.
very good example...confirms my thoughts...thank you.

if anyone else finds more examples..feel free to post.

why am i asking this?...because the majority of us "at least" look at patterns and have a built in bias on how to interpret them. Back testing these patterns is as crucial in trading as anything else as pa repeats itself over time. Informational purposes really.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,785
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:48am Mar 23, 2009 6:48am
Quoting altrader
Good chart. I'm hoping to ride the break of the neckline down to the close of the previous day at around 3580. I may close half of that position beforehand though depending on how the trade develops. OR I could get stopped out but I'm thinking that we should head down and fill this gap in totality first b4 moving back up later in the week. (hopefully)
I cant see any gap today. Actually there is no gap. Look at this:

http://www.forexrealm.com/forex-charts/
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Time goes you say? Ah, no! Time stays. We go...
  • #78,786
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:51am Mar 23, 2009 6:51am
The kneejerk snap in EURO/USD to the upside surely caught many by suprise, but while I may be simply in denial, I am thinking of perhaps a scenario where all this extra USd in the systme might be bullish for the USD. Isolating the 300 billion to be used to buy treasuries, surely treasury investors are please with that. Keep the bid in Treasuries alive make buying dollars to purchase treasuries still a safe bet. Furthermore the interest rates are so low on US debt, I hav to wonder how much money we can save on interest payemt by keeping yields low. The 300 Billlion may pay for itself, when you concider how much debt needs servicing out there.

Just another monday morning thought.
  • #78,787
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:54am Mar 23, 2009 6:54am
Quoting andrius
I cant see any gap today. Actually there is no gap. Look at this:

http://www.forexrealm.com/forex-charts/
thank you ...seriously thank you very much for this chart. i finally understand what a weekend gap is.

note how there was a move up before the market "officially" opened. In other words any price action that goes on until market open is done by institutionals, big banks or whatever....not the hedge funds or other major players. A weekend gap which we expect to be filled can simply be interpreted as a return to the levels before these institutionals moved pa because they play only a minority in the bigger picture which we call forex. Why did these institutionals even move up pa before market open...the financial plan about to be revealed by Geithner..i think an hour from now
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,788
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:55am Mar 23, 2009 6:55am
Quoting psiholog
very good example...confirms my thoughts...thank you.

if anyone else finds more examples..feel free to post.

why am i asking this?...because the majority of us "at least" look at patterns and have a built in bias on how to interpret them. Back testing these patterns is as crucial in trading as anything else as pa repeats itself over time. Informational purposes really.
your welcome.

im really unsure how we will continue from here. if i could wish, i would say lets make a dip here into 1.33 - 1.30 area and resume uptrend from there...lol
  • #78,789
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:56am Mar 23, 2009 6:56am
Quoting Titus
your welcome.

im really unsure how we will continue from here. if i could wish, i would say lets make a dip here into 1.33 - 1.30 area and resume uptrend from there...lol
That would work for me.
  • #78,790
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:02am Mar 23, 2009 7:02am
I agree with the chart that Psi posted earlier, although it is M5 chart, it still does not want to break the upper wall of the channel. Until it break the upper wall, my guess is that we are going south for the time being.
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  • #78,791
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:12am Mar 23, 2009 7:12am
....I would take it!!
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #78,792
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:13am Mar 23, 2009 7:13am
))

http://s60.radikal.ru/i170/0903/fd/163d4d96ffea.gif
  • #78,793
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:13am Mar 23, 2009 7:13am
Quoting psiholog
very good example...confirms my thoughts...thank you.

if anyone else finds more examples..feel free to post.

why am i asking this?...because the majority of us "at least" look at patterns and have a built in bias on how to interpret them. Back testing these patterns is as crucial in trading as anything else as pa repeats itself over time. Informational purposes really.
Hi,

Could you explain how those EURCAD graphs correlate with EURUSD and what they prove when we compare their patterns and recent EURUSD bullish move (whose major moving force was USD, not euro)?

thanks
  • #78,794
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:18am Mar 23, 2009 7:18am
Quoting andrius
I cant see any gap today. Actually there is no gap. Look at this:

http://www.forexrealm.com/forex-charts/
hello. Good chart you have there. Actually I have on my software disabled the weekend view. Reason is that I like to have the candles from the previous week close to the candles for the new week.

Also I'll need to look at the definition of a gap as it applies for forex. I'm not sure but I thought that because there was this price action on the weekend, that that is what causes the gap between friday and monday. So that is how you get a gap in the first place.

Whereas I don't know how you could just suddenly gap up on monday at the begining of the asian session as you would see the chart go up and it shouldn't appear as a gap.

I guess what I'm saying is that i need to check the definition of gap. I thought that because we have weekend trading that caused price to move up on the open during the asian open, that that constitutes a gap.

Normally I thought that you don't get much PA during the weekend if any and that that was just covered by your own broker since liquidity is so bad on a weekend.
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  • #78,795
  • Edited 7:29am Mar 23, 2009 7:18am | Edited 7:29am
equitys futures are up.. dow futures are up over 200 but the eu is at its lows.. hm?? ive been scalping long at but at 2625 picking up 8 pips each time the last few minutes.. i started thinking 2675 with a limited sl of 15 pips.. since we were in a little range and equitys up so much... anyway it seems with equitys doing so well this pair should be closer to sundays high not low.. something seems wrong..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,796
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:22am Mar 23, 2009 7:22am
Quoting tarasbaida
Hi,

Could you explain how those EURCAD graphs correlate with EURUSD and what they prove when we compare their patterns and recent EURUSD bullish move (whose major moving force was USD, not euro)?

thanks
that example on eur/cad was just to see how a pattern similar to the one we are currently in plays out...which way it will break.

if you are asking what makes them similar...its the higher lows and same resistance which has been tested several times (3times in our case now) but never convincingly broken.

it doesnt really matter what pair he posted...just the pattern itself counts as it is universal and plays out in all markets..equities..commodities..you name it.

the only factor that may change how they break out..whether to the topside or downside is fundamentals. If there are no fundamentals involved...from what i recall they mostly break to the downside.

On another note...gap filled almost...closed the rest of my position...not a bad sunday/monday start
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,797
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:22am Mar 23, 2009 7:22am
Finally it made its move , was getting board here
I SEE YOU !!
  • #78,798
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:23am Mar 23, 2009 7:23am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Good morning everyone!

Well, we have a gap, which I'm pretty sure will be filled, so 1.2685 - short.
I closed that trade earlier (+42 pips) - I saw some resistance, wasn't sure if pa is going down, but now we can see that the gap has been closed nicely, so if anyone stayed to the end - good job!

P.S.

And who doesn't like the smell of a gap in the morning?
  • #78,799
  • Edited 7:27am Mar 23, 2009 7:24am | Edited 7:27am
i like the way you aproach this. here's my perspective.

Blue line SL(in my head).

P.S. this thread moves like a fuckin train, i need to refresf each minute.. slow down making money!!!!!
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  • #78,800
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:27am Mar 23, 2009 7:27am
Quoting gatorinla
equitys futures are up.. dow futures are up over 200 but the eu is at its lows.. hm?? ive been scalping long at 2625 picking up 8 pips each time the last few minutes.. i started thinking 2675 with a limited sl of 15 pips.. since we were in a little range and equitys up so much... ayway it seems with equitys doing so well this pair should be closer to sundays high not low.. something seems wrong..
100 pip range...i guess i will buy on the bottom with a tight sl..4h 1h bearish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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