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  • #78,761
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:29am Mar 23, 2009 5:29am
Good Morning/Evening @ all
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #78,762
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:30am Mar 23, 2009 5:30am
Quoting psiholog
...

now as far as the W goes which we all can see....dont forget i trade patterns alot...it is one of the most valued tools in my arsenal. I am not buying this one...for it to complete would mean the eur/dollar would have to go the same distance from the low of the W to the neckline. The low is 1.23 and neckline is 1.47. This would imply another 2500pips up. from 1.47 that would imply we reach over 1.7 eur/dollar. 1.7000...think about it...when it comes to fundamentals..who stands to benefit from that? No one
Like I mentioned, I don't know how much longer the Euro has before the dollar regains its advantage, but as far as I've studied expert commentaries, it's pretty hard to imagine Europe allowing its currency to strengthen that much (much above 1.40-50). It would totally kill their exports, which would further drive them into a deeper recession. Some form of intervention is likely to take place if it ever rise that dramatically, the same way BOJ intervened when the Yen was getting too strong.

But nonetheless, not to say that we can't go any higher from where we are without expecting to complete the W. As we all know, it's all about the game changing fundamentals. And in the market environment we're in, almost anything can be game changing. IMHO.
  • #78,763
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:34am Mar 23, 2009 5:34am
Quoting F.x.

As for the current bear flag continuation pattern on the 5 minute chart. How can you give any credit to that when we have a HUGE bull flag on the hourly?
i dont know if i would label it as a bull flag on the hourly. triple top is the scenario. pa is making higher lows but holding the same high.

from my knowledge of flags...it should be making lower highs as well....correct me if i am wrong.


as for the 5min one...broke up..channel broke up...lets see how high it goes now. as i was just pmed...the lower timeframes ones are more unpredictable which is why some consider shorter timeframes noise. doesnt mean i dont use them
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,764
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:35am Mar 23, 2009 5:35am
Quoting SMTrader
Like I mentioned, I don't know how much longer the Euro has before the dollar regains its advantage, but as far as I've studied expert commentaries, it's pretty hard to imagine Europe allowing its currency to strengthen that much (much above 1.40-50). It would totally kill their exports, which would further drive them into a deeper recession. Some form of intervention is likely to take place if it ever rise that dramatically, the same way BOJ intervened when the Yen was getting too strong.

But nonetheless, not to say that we can't go any higher...
that's true.. but for now US needs weak currency to help their exports... countries are doing shift rotations to balance their exports
  • #78,765
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:37am Mar 23, 2009 5:37am
thank you FX and psiholog for such productive discussion

I am biased to FX opinion and I beleive in the long term euro will go higher.
even if there was a drop in short term but I strongly think we will hit the 40s

today we touched the highest point for the third time and it makes me feel we are gonna break it if not today then tomorrow or day after but eventually it will be broken on the short term.

I don't count so much on the big time frames in technical except for showing me the direction of the price and if a trend is broken . for the time being price its going up for sure.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #78,766
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:38am Mar 23, 2009 5:38am
I think it will go to fib 61.8 (1.4718 - 1.2456)
the target will be 1.3850
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  • #78,767
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:41am Mar 23, 2009 5:41am
Quoting SMTrader

But nonetheless, not to say that we can't go any higher from where we are without expecting to complete the W. As we all know, it's all about the game changing fundamentals. And in the market environment we're in, almost anything can be game changing. IMHO.
exactly which is why we must take it one day at a time...look at where pa is compared to yesterday because the markets are so volatile. From the posts I see here...the longer term traders are only picking major areas of support/resistance to enter the markets and if they happen to be right...they gradually add positions in their favor..always keeping an eye on fundamentals and how they could help or not help their positions. Smart thing to do reinforcing the "trend is your friend concept" and they can keep doing this until their predetermined stop loss gets hit..possibly lose a trade or two at the end but overall still make massive gains. That initial entry though...im sure even they recognize it can go either way and may wait weeks before its in the profit as ranging periods usually last a month nowadays and fundamentals are unpredictable
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,768
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:42am Mar 23, 2009 5:42am
09:02 EUR/USD: Pullback Fills Mid-East Demand As Eastern Europe Sells London, March 23rd. The pullback into the mid-1.36s has filled decent Middle-Eastern support, with a proactive Eastern European name last seen on the offer to force the price into the 1.3640s. The failure to sustain the morning move into the 1.37s will reinforce the 1.3739 prior highs and topside barriers in the short-term but expect buying dips to be preferred and targets towards 1.40 to remain viable.

Elsewhere, Toxic US assets might be in focus but elsewhere the PBOC"s Hu has reiterated US Treasuries are an important part of Chinese FX reserves.

Above the 1.3750 & 1.3800 options is a host of key technical levels, with the 61.8% Fibo in the 1.3850s (from the 1.4720-1.2457 move) reinforced by the 200-DMA line (last seen at 1.3887).

09:58 FX OPTIONS: Ongoing Demand for EUR Calls London, March 23. EUR/USD dealers report ongoing demand for EUR call strikes, despite the spot setback from another failed attempt on 1.3750 barriers this morning. 2 week 1.40"s have gone through a couple of times at 20.25 and various strikes in the 1.3950-1.4150 region for similar expiries out to 21.20. Further out a decent size spread said to have gone through recently - 6 month 10 delta over 30 delta EUR calls at 2.65 v/n. The benchmark 1 month atmf tenor reached mid-uper 18"s before gains stalled on the spot setback
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #78,769
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:48am Mar 23, 2009 5:48am
Hi guy's it's been awhile since I last posted good to be back. My opinion on the current market is still short term bullish and long term bearish. EU has been staying above 1.35 for few days now expectations for EU to drop is already over due i get the feeling that EU is just currently ranging about to break to the upside 1.39 before drop just my opinion.
  • #78,770
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:49am Mar 23, 2009 5:49am
i dont care where it goes.. but weaker dollar will in months hurt exporting countries...euro may get stronger but can it hold this selling less beamers? after dust settles i see euro weakening...i may be wrong, but think a top is not far away. if its 1.4 thats fine...1.6 or 1.0 i just hope i reconise trend early and latch on..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,771
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:49am Mar 23, 2009 5:49am
Quoting psiholog
i dont know if i would label it as a bull flag on the hourly. triple top is the scenario. pa is making higher lows but holding the same high.

from my knowledge of flags...it should be making lower highs as well....correct me if i am wrong.


as for the 5min one...broke up..channel broke up...lets see how high it goes now. as i was just pmed...the lower timeframes ones are more unpredictable which is why some consider shorter timeframes noise. doesnt mean i dont use them

You may be right - perhaps it should be called a pennant on the hourly rather than a flag. Regardless, I think the case is still better for us moving higher from this point rather than retesting 1.245 levels. Though, a 200 pip drop before the end of the month would not surprise me. But that doesn't matter to me as I'm now playing higher time frames, other than the occasional scalp when the perfect setup comes up.
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  • #78,772
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:52am Mar 23, 2009 5:52am
Quoting SMTrader
Like I mentioned, I don't know how much longer the Euro has before the dollar regains its advantage, but as far as I've studied expert commentaries, it's pretty hard to imagine Europe allowing its currency to strengthen that much (much above 1.40-50). It would totally kill their exports, which would further drive them into a deeper recession. Some form of intervention is likely to take place if it ever rise that dramatically, the same way BOJ intervened when the Yen was getting too strong.

But nonetheless, not to say that we can't go any higher...
agree.. now we just gotta get the timing thing in line...*L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,773
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:55am Mar 23, 2009 5:55am
What do long-termers among us think about this view that U.S. Government's QE policies and toxic asset plan will eventually cause runaway inflation and significantly drive money away from U.S. assets/bonds therefore weakening the USD further in relation to other major currencies? Kind of like a circular problem?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?vid...8906925&play=1
  • #78,774
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:57am Mar 23, 2009 5:57am

Triple top pattern on the 1h chart anyone?

  • #78,775
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:59am Mar 23, 2009 5:59am
Quoting F.x.
You may be right - perhaps it should be called a pennant on the hourly rather than a flag. Regardless, I think the case is still better for us moving higher from this point rather than retesting 1.245 levels. Though, a 200 pip drop before the end of the month would not surprise me. But that doesn't matter to me as I'm now playing higher time frames, other than the occasional scalp when the perfect setup comes up.
pa will do the talking

thank you for that chart though...i see the weekend pa is included. it brings the question back into play that i was asked a while ago....when drawing trendlines...should weekend pa be included or not? that "pause" will break trendlines in most cases so heres the same chart you posted with no weekend pa for comparison. maybe it helps in your perceptions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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on another note..heres some homework for whomever may be interested.
check out the chart...check out the ascending triangle after a strong trend up. see if you can find any similar examples and in which direction price action broke (triple top prefered) and post that chart on here if you can
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,776
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:12am Mar 23, 2009 6:12am
one more chart...if i am posting excessively...let me know and i will stop =/

does todays pa up until this point look like a h&s? with the left shoulder as an extended consolidation period between shoulder and neckline?

opinions?

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,777
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:14am Mar 23, 2009 6:14am
Quoting SMTrader
What do long-termers among us think about this view that U.S. Government's QE policies and toxic asset plan will eventually cause runaway inflation and significantly drive money away from U.S. assets/bonds therefore weakening the USD further in relation to other major currencies? Kind of like a circular problem?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?vid...8906925&play=1
I don't think it will cause run away inflation, because demand will weaken quickly if prices get to high. I would be more worried about china policies causing inflation than anything.
  • #78,778
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:17am Mar 23, 2009 6:17am
Quoting psiholog
one more chart...if i am posting excessively...let me know and i will stop =/

does todays pa up until this point look like a h&s? with the left shoulder as an extended consolidation period between shoulder and neckline?

opinions?

Attachment
Please dont stop posting, because your postings are very good
  • #78,779
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:21am Mar 23, 2009 6:21am
Quoting psiholog
one more chart...if i am posting excessively...let me know and i will stop =/

does todays pa up until this point look like a h&s? with the left shoulder as an extended consolidation period between shoulder and neckline?

opinions?

Attachment
My opinion is no. H&S are not applicable in such short time frames, IMO.
  • #78,780
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:22am Mar 23, 2009 6:22am
Quoting psiholog

on another note..heres some homework for whomever may be interested.
check out the chart...check out the ascending triangle after a strong trend up. see if you can find any similar examples and in which direction price action broke (triple top prefered) and post that chart on here if you can

eur/cad daily charts.
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