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  • #78,741
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:28am Mar 23, 2009 4:28am
Quoting F.x.
Long @ 3623

Going to start building more longs if we drop from here.
What makes you committed to your long bias, F.X.? How are you reading this current down move? Do you see it as impulsive selling into that top-side failure, and therefore the initial long bias remains intact?
  • #78,742
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:35am Mar 23, 2009 4:35am
heres a chart of my favorites...channels (havent done this in a while). note that this is on the 5min timeframe as pa has moved so fast. also note that i said i closed half my position at 1.3745. I did that the instant the lower wall was tapped. Also note how pa has not broken the lower trendline at all. This usually implies a consolidation will come eventually until the upper wall is reached again where pa will continue down or a break up...which is why my stop loss is at entry now. My tp is still at gap fill but if I get stopped out..no worries.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,743
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:42am Mar 23, 2009 4:42am
... for another run up and test of 1.3710 area.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #78,744
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:46am Mar 23, 2009 4:46am
Quoting Jasper
... for another run up and test of 1.3710 area.
If price closes below 1.3627, that trade is void and i think it will go down.
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #78,745
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:47am Mar 23, 2009 4:47am
Although there is room for this to run I think the bull has just about had it. I am expecting a final push and if it doesn't break 3775-3800 it's time for a short. Until then I am going to be buying dips with the first one around 3570. Of course, PA at the time will determine if the long is a viable trade.

good trading all.
  • #78,746
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:48am Mar 23, 2009 4:48am
Nice one. The famous PSI Channel.
  • #78,747
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:50am Mar 23, 2009 4:50am
while im not big on fundies i still am a long term bear. in all honesty...this rally up from 1.2500 means nothing to me...it was just the reaction (panic/fear) to what the feds did last week in buying treasuries. now because that has passed...i see no reason to continue higher. even geithners plan he will reveal in a few hours from now i do not see helping the euro. usually when he talks...the stock market crashes and drags the eur/usd pair with it.

why am i still a dollar bull?...because the whole world is in a recession. the us was among the first but eurozone is quickly catching up. i dont see things getting better there any time soon and the one key fundamental fact which HAS to happen is going to keep the euro weak. What is that fact?...Trichet will have to keep cutting rates...thats all there is to it.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,748
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:51am Mar 23, 2009 4:51am
Quoting SMTrader
What makes you committed to your long bias, F.X.? How are you reading this current down move? Do you see it as impulsive selling into that top-side failure, and therefore the initial long bias remains intact?

Forget all this buzz about 1.37... I'm now looking for 1.6.

I expect the lowest we'll see is 1.343 if we have any drops in the near future so I'm planning for that.

My previous view was that we were forming a pennant on the daily and would soon retest 1.245 and then make a drop to the teens. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind but it's looking less and less likely... My official plan now will be to expect much higher highs so I'll be building longs for that whenever possible.
  • #78,749
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:52am Mar 23, 2009 4:52am
Quoting dysan4x
Although there is room for this to run I think the bull has just about had it. I am expecting a final push and if it doesn't break 3775-3800 it's time for a short. Until then I am going to be buying dips with the first one around 3570. Of course, PA at the time will determine if the long is a viable trade.

good trading all.

What does PA mean?
  • #78,750
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:54am Mar 23, 2009 4:54am
Quoting GKGold2008
What does PA mean?
price action.
  • #78,751
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:57am Mar 23, 2009 4:57am
Quoting psiholog
it was just the reaction (panic/fear) to what the feds did last week in buying treasuries. now because that has passed...
I got news for you... dumping that kind of money into the system is not just "news". They completely changed the entire financial system by doing that.

Quoting psiholog
why am i still a dollar bull?...because the whole world is in a recession. the us was among the first but eurozone is quickly catching up. i dont see things getting better there any time soon and the one key fundamental fact which HAS to happen is going to keep the euro weak. What is that fact?...Trichet will have to keep cutting rates...thats all there is to it.
Euro interest rates are still higher than USD rates and will be even if ECB cuts rates by a considerable amount. Why would anyone buy the dollar?


Take a look at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts and give me 1 reason to go short... I was making the case for it but that case holds up less and less with each passing day.
  • #78,752
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:01am Mar 23, 2009 5:01am
Quoting SMTrader
Nice one. The famous PSI Channel.
if you liked that check this one out...the classic bear flag/pennant continuation pattern. we know which direction this "usually" goes.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,753
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:04am Mar 23, 2009 5:04am
the gap IS going to close soon

http://www.pesquisapsi.com/linhacetica/images/142.jpg

  • #78,754
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:14am Mar 23, 2009 5:14am
Quoting F.x.
Take a look at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts and give me 1 reason to go short... I was making the case for it but that case holds up less and less with each passing day.
reasons. do you really think the monthly charts apply at the present time? with pa as volatile as it has been since last september? do you see any time in history previous to this where pa has moved so much and so far in such a short amount of time? I honestly refuse to check out the week/monthly as every day can bring a different story. However since you asked...here are 2 reasons.

1)..fibonacci. While i have stopped using these long ago they portray what i see clearly. First...note that on the original rally down...we went from 1.6 to 1.23/25 area after which we retraced to 1.47. On this last rally up we have retraced from the lows to 1.37. Same starting point...1000pips less. Coincidence?...well the first time in december we retraced to 61.8%. In cointinuation patterns that is normal retracement before going further. On this last rally up we have retraced to 38.2% but we cant break through it..not yet at least. Again continuation pa (and the long term is still down..2weeks does not change that)

2) Note the december high in 2004. Note the current high. Same area..same struggle. Coincidence or strong resistance? One was on the way up of the major trend...now its on the way up when then major trend is down. Correlation or not?..you decide.

now as far as the W goes which we all can see....dont forget i trade patterns alot...it is one of the most valued tools in my arsenal. I am not buying this one...for it to complete would mean the eur/dollar would have to go the same distance from the low of the W to the neckline. The low is 1.23 and neckline is 1.47. This would imply another 2500pips up. from 1.47 that would imply we reach over 1.7 eur/dollar. 1.7000...think about it...when it comes to fundamentals..who stands to benefit from that? No one

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  • #78,755
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:18am Mar 23, 2009 5:18am
Quoting psiholog
while im not big on fundies i still am a long term bear. in all honesty...this rally up from 1.2500 means nothing to me...it was just the reaction (panic/fear) to what the feds did last week in buying treasuries. now because that has passed...i see no reason to continue higher. even geithners plan he will reveal in a few hours from now i do not see helping the euro. usually when he talks...the stock market crashes and drags the eur/usd pair with it.

why am i still a dollar bull?...because the whole world is in a recession. the us was among the...
Very good points, PSI. I also had this question myself even last week when all this rally was happening. How long will this rally last until the reality sets in for everyone that ultimately Europe is still behind the recession/recovery curve. They're the latest in cutting rates and implemeting QE to fight deflation/unemployment. This week ECB meeting will reveal whether they'll continue cutting rates and/or start their own QE efforts. If the answer is yes for one or both, we may see the dollar wrestle back some ground as the yield gap will be narrower and the Euro won't present as much of an advantage anymore. On the other hand, if ECB continues with its trademark conservatism of in action and refuse to cut rates and/or implement QE, traders might begin to doubt its ability to address the region's economic crisis in a timely manner. The question is, when will that view finally cause some concern among EUR/USD bulls, enough to offset the dollar negative sentiment and the risk appetite that's driving investors from USD towards the high yielding EU right now. My guess is the surge in risk appetite may be too strong to stop in the near term, but eventually medium term outlook will start seeing investors moving back to the currencies whose economies are more likely to rise out of recession first. And one of those ahead of the curve is the U.S. and Asia. IMO, whenever the correlation between USD and risk sentiment ceases, USD will start to regain strength based on its genuine value (i.e. being the fastest to recover) rather than from the safe haven status that it has been labeled with of late, which only benefits it when risk sentiment is negative. And I think this will happen once market participants believe we've found the bottom of the recession and are confident that the financial crisis is going to be addressed effectively with measures already introduced as well as those about to be announced.
  • #78,756
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:20am Mar 23, 2009 5:20am
damn i was here friday and you have already killed the dollar and installed the amero...... the funny part is we already have one for the americas.. its called the u.s. dollar and is already used in the americas..for all the lambs out there.. the only reason your here is because your ancestors fought well enough to survive.. by killing... either they attacked other people and killed them or defended themselfs and killed others.. regaurdless your the product of this..we may wear desighner jeans but we are not for from wearing animal skins..there have always been wars and there always will be someone (have nots)willing to kill another (have everything) for their stuff. the have everything will kill the have nots for their stuff..your and my ancestors raped and piliged to put us where were are today..dont believe that we are all sheep including yourself, the wolfs put us here...talk softly and carry a big stick has never been so true...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,757
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:22am Mar 23, 2009 5:22am
Quoting psiholog
reasons. do you really think the monthly charts apply at the present time? with pa as volatile as it has been since last september? do you see any time in history previous to this where pa has moved so much and so far in such a short amount of time? I honestly refuse to check out the week/monthly as every day can bring a different story. However since you asked...here are 2 reasons.

1)..fibonacci. While i have stopped using these long ago they portray what i see clearly. First...note that on the original rally down...we went from 1.6 to 1.23/25...
I'm seeing the same things as you and as I said it "did" look as though we'll retest the lows and move even lower. But while I held that view I also had the W in mind, and the longer we stay at this level the more my view is shifting from falling back to 1.245 to moving higher and completing the W. And yes, that would mean 1.7 for the pair (though I would actually put it at more like 1.8.)


As for the current bear flag continuation pattern on the 5 minute chart. How can you give any credit to that when we have a HUGE bull flag on the hourly?
  • #78,758
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:25am Mar 23, 2009 5:25am
some times gaps produce bad smells. be aware of older gaps..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,759
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:26am Mar 23, 2009 5:26am
Quoting SMTrader
Very good points, PSI. I also had this question myself even last week when all this rally was happening. How long will this rally last until the reality sets in for everyone that ultimately Europe is still behind the recession/recovery curve. They're the latest in cutting rates and implemeting QE to fight deflation/unemployment. This week ECB meeting will reveal whether they'll continue cutting rates and/or start their own QE efforts. If the answer is yes for one or both, we may see the dollar wrestle back some ground as the yield gap will be narrower...
More great points, and why I was bearish for so long. I was planning for an ECB rate cut in March as well as the general idea in peoples minds that the US would "lead" the rest of the world out of this situation.

Maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit by switching to bullish view while still in March... but I just don't want to miss another swing up like I did when still shorting after seeing all the signs we were going up from 1.245 (reverse shampoo, multiple W's, etc...)
  • #78,760
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:27am Mar 23, 2009 5:27am
this is what i get for trading the gap
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