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  • #78,721
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:49am Mar 23, 2009 3:49am
Quoting psiholog
lets assume this is exactly what will happen (even if it wont). if it did happen..how would this impact forex trading in your opinion? As trading revolves around the "majors" with almost all currency pairs that are worth trading involving the dollar (with a few exceptions like the geppy and eur/jpy)...i just dont see how forex would survive. How do you see it?
I don't think it will affect forex as a market. It's just a reserve currency. But the transition period will affect currency values quite a bit, especially dollar value [again IF this happens].

In fact I don't understand why this hasn't been done before, it's almost gambling to keep all your reserves based on a single fiat currency.
  • #78,722
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:51am Mar 23, 2009 3:51am
Quoting mikkom
I don't think it will affect forex as a market. It's just a reserve currency. But the transition period will affect currency values quite a bit, especially dollar value [again IF this happens].

In fact I don't understand why this hasn't been done before, it's almost gambling to keep all your reserves based on a single fiat currency.
The only single fiat currency is the Euro.
  • #78,723
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:52am Mar 23, 2009 3:52am
Quoting lloydblankfe
The only single fiat currency is the Euro.
Here we go again..

Do you even understand what fiat currency means?
  • #78,724
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:52am Mar 23, 2009 3:52am
For the last few weeks I've been making cases for going short, and I've really wanted to believe those arguments. But I think it's about time for a reality check...

We just crossed the trendline I've been watching for a few months now that would tell if we're forming a pennant or W on the daily. If we don't move down soon (as in, this week), that's definitely going to be a W which means we have a LOT higher to go from here.

Further, take a break from the charts and just "think" about what's going on in the world and any idiot can tell you it doesn't look good for the greenback...

Technically speaking... take a look at the spike we had last December and compare that to what we're seeing with this last run up from the 1.245 area. It looks a lot more like what we saw at 1.3375 (first half of the full run-up) than the reversal point.

The only thing that gets me is when I look at the monthly which makes it seem as though we could retest the 1.25 area and then make a big drop. But that's getting harder and harder to believe...
  • #78,725
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:56am Mar 23, 2009 3:56am
Quoting psiholog
Triple top seems to be holding intact for now and there is still a possibility to get a h&s out of this. It all really depends on the reaction to geithner. For a h&s to materialize we need to go straight to 1.3415 or so...consolidate back up to 1.3540 or so and then continue down. Lots of resistance on the way down though. As for my position...a risk worth taking with target unknown...depends on how pa develops with the idea of a rangebound market until geithner talks strong in my mind (1.3735-1.3540)

Attachment
wow that dropped quite fast. locked in 52 pips and rest stop loss at entry. the reason for this...we have reached the first major support within this range (i consider it to be 1.3745 now based on pa since market opened...last thursday/friday that value was 1.3735)..last week taught me when in doubt....protect your gains haha

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and mikkom...i would like to continue the discussion but my fundies are so weak...i wouldnt know what i would be saying haha. still..thanks for the article it is interesting at the least
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,726
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:56am Mar 23, 2009 3:56am
Quoting mikkom
Here we go again..

Do you even understand what fiat currency means?
readthe definition as Freidman said the only fiat currency backed by paper.
  • #78,727
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:59am Mar 23, 2009 3:59am
Quoting mikkom
If (and this is a big if) central banks will indeed move their reservers to basket instead of a dollar, it will simply mean that the basket currencies will face a huge demand and dollar will face a huge supply. The real question is as jurrassic said will the central banks even listen to this but at times like these you can never be sure what is going to happen.
I don't see how it's possible for a new world currency to be installed without REPLACING the dollar reserves with it. The whole world is invested in the dollar. No way, in my opinion at least, could any agreement be reached if it meant that all these dollars will suddenly mean nothing as they loose most of their value. So that's what I meant earlier - a replacement, and thus apparently also a goodbye to a lot of the US debt. Otherwise I can't see how this would work at all.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #78,728
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:00am Mar 23, 2009 4:00am
Quoting mikkom
Here we go again..

Do you even understand what fiat currency means?

Darn it, stop quoting that parrot. Every time I see what has been said through others quoting him it's like an ice pick through the eye and out the back of my skull.
  • #78,729
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:01am Mar 23, 2009 4:01am
btw

there was a trader who said in a few weeks back, that in his X number of years trading eur/usd, gaps ALWAYS fill within the week lol too bad i cant find his post for now..

interesting
  • #78,730
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:03am Mar 23, 2009 4:03am
Looks like we have a failure at the top of making new high.....will sell her down next pb with tight sl@13760..
  • #78,731
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:04am Mar 23, 2009 4:04am
Quoting trading801
btw

there was a trader who said in a few weeks back, that in his X number of years trading eur/usd, gaps ALWAYS fill within the week lol too bad i cant find his post for now..

interesting

acumen said he did a study on that way back in august/september if you recall. in his studies (which was at least 1year)... they get filled 80% of the time. i too have been studying since he posted that and it happens 90% of the time from my observations
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,732
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:05am Mar 23, 2009 4:05am
Well I'm out, not waiting for the gap to fill anymore. I know it will but I have to go to sleep and I got out with 0.57 % profit on account value.
I'll sleep better with no risk at all.

See you guys in a few hours.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #78,733
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:05am Mar 23, 2009 4:05am
Quoting trading801
btw

there was a trader who said in a few weeks back, that in his X number of years trading eur/usd, gaps ALWAYS fill within the week lol too bad i cant find his post for now..

interesting
I'm sure that was Nuckingfuts, and I believe something like 5 years running now it's closed the gap within the week.
  • #78,734
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:06am Mar 23, 2009 4:06am
What about this past december, were all the weekend gaps filled??
  • #78,735
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:09am Mar 23, 2009 4:09am
Quoting F.x.
What about this past december, were all the weekend gaps filled??
i dont think there were any. december was a beast...pa would go high...close on fridays at the high...open sundays where pa left off and continue higher. and even if there was...the return to 1.2500 proved they all were filled
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #78,736
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:18am Mar 23, 2009 4:18am
Quoting F.x.
What about this past december, were all the weekend gaps filled??
I'm sure there were several on-trend gaps during the recent months' violent trends that were not filled within the same week at least.. I don't trade them but I do notice them ussualy. Besides, what good is a gap that takes a week to fill for trading ? How far will you let it run away from you before you decide it won't close anytime soon ?
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #78,737
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:18am Mar 23, 2009 4:18am
Long @ 3623

Going to start building more longs if we drop from here.
  • #78,738
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:24am Mar 23, 2009 4:24am
Quoting Jurrasic
I'm sure there were several on-trend gaps during the recent months' violent trends that were not filled within the same week at least.. I don't trade them but I do notice them ussualy. Besides, what good is a gap that takes a week to fill for trading ? How far will you let it run away from you before you decide it won't close anytime soon ?

true true.. its a risk.. i dont trade gaps myself
  • #78,739
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:26am Mar 23, 2009 4:26am
Quoting F.x.
Long @ 3623

Going to start building more longs if we drop from here.
good call IMO ,
i have pending long @ 3614 SL 20 pips
I SEE YOU !!
  • #78,740
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:26am Mar 23, 2009 4:26am
Quoting F.x.
Long @ 3623

Going to start building more longs if we drop from here.

I bought at 1.3630... next hour candle would bring more uptrend
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